VA-VCU: T-Mac +3

[Skye]

McAuliffe (D) 41
Youngkin (R) 38

The Commonwealth Poll October 2021, sponsored by Virginia Commonwealth
University (VCU), obtained telephone interviews with a representative sample of 808 adults,
ages 18 or older, living in Virginia. Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (405) and
cell phone (403, including 261 without a landline telephone). The survey was conducted by
Responsive Management. Interviews were conducted in English from October 9 to October 21,
2021.
Statistical results were weighted to correct known demographic discrepancies in the
sample. The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is ± 5.03
percentage points. The margin of error for registered voters was ± 5.86 percentage points. The
margin of error for likely voters was± 6.44 percentage points.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wsxvc49X3M_1TpncW32DURtCgpx0ef6Y/view


So many undecideds...

[Matty]

It was 43-34 in their sept poll


Just embarrassing to put out a poll with this many undecideds

[Lief 🗽]

Lean R, but closer to Likely than Toss-Up at this point. TMAC hasn’t had a good poll here in weeks.

[kwabbit]

I’m confused how you have so many undecideds. Do they not use a LV screen to filter them oi? Do they not push them at all?

Either way a strong trend towards Youngkin in this poll.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The odds are still good that Dem turnout pushes TMac just over the line, but this is likely to be a similar embarrassment for them like Warner's last race.

[wbrocks67]

The funny thing about this is that the margin is the exact same as their August poll (40-37), with nearly the same amount of "decideds".

As Matty said, the amount of other/undecideds is a choice here, and I'm not sure how you have an LV screen that literally includes "would not vote" as a choice.