VA-Suffolk/USA Today: Tie
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  VA-Suffolk/USA Today: Tie
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Author Topic: VA-Suffolk/USA Today: Tie  (Read 1745 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 26, 2021, 05:56:27 AM »
« edited: October 26, 2021, 06:29:46 AM by wbrocks67 »

McAuliffe (D) 46%
Youngkin (R) 45%
Blanding (L) 2%

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/10/26/virginia-governors-race-mcauliffe-youngkin-dead-heat-poll-shows/6172824001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

The herding has truly begun.

Others:

Hala Ayala (D) 46%
Winsome Sears (R) 44%

Mark Herring (D) 48%
Jason Miyaras (R) 45%

Northam approval: 48/43 (+5)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2021, 05:57:42 AM »

This also has Biden's approval at 41/52 in VA, which, if McAuliffe is truly outperforming Biden with a tie despite Biden's approval being -11, that's truly impressive. But I highly doubt that Biden's approval is -11, which would be 4% above his national approval, despite VA being ~6% to the left of the country.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2021, 05:58:44 AM »

What do you know, another tie? What subsample do you have now to pick out and debunk this poll?
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2021, 06:03:13 AM »

HELP ME!! I AM GOING ABSOLUTELY CRAZY!!! I AM ABOUT TO THROW STUFF!!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2021, 06:09:31 AM »

HELP ME!! I AM GOING ABSOLUTELY CRAZY!!! I AM ABOUT TO THROW STUFF!!

Well here's a quick helper. That crazy Princess lady will not get 2%.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2021, 06:12:25 AM »

What do you know, another tie? What subsample do you have now to pick out and debunk this poll?

Dude you are way too obsessed with me, just stop.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2021, 06:12:29 AM »

Data for unskewing

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2021/10_26_2021_tables.pdf

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2021/10_26_2021_marginals.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2021, 06:15:50 AM »


I know you're trolling but Youngkin is actually beating McAuliffe in 18-35 year olds, so that's something Smiley
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2021, 06:16:39 AM »

What do you know, another tie? What subsample do you have now to pick out and debunk this poll?

Dude you are way too obsessed with me, just stop.

Yes, I'm obsessed. You didn't have to respond you already posted an example of what I was talking about before I even posted.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2021, 06:18:43 AM »

What do you know, another tie? What subsample do you have now to pick out and debunk this poll?

Dude you are way too obsessed with me, just stop.

Yes, I'm obsessed. You didn't have to respond you already posted an example of what I was talking about before I even posted.

You must've missed the sarcasm. Go out and get some fresh air.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2021, 06:23:56 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2021, 06:35:24 AM by Vaccinated Russian Bear »

Other info:

Lieutenant governor:
Ayala 45
Sears 44

Attorney general:
Herring 48
Miyaras 44


Job Approval:
Biden 41/52
Northam 47/42

Fav:
Biden 45/50
Northam 44/42
Youngkin 43/36
McAuliffe 43/42
Ayala 37/21 (*fixed wrong favs)
Sears 28/17 (*fixed wrong favs)



Right/wrong direction:
26/66
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2021, 06:31:04 AM »

Ayala’s fav is actually 37/21 and Sears is 28/18.

Ayala has had the best favs of the entire race I've noticed.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2021, 06:39:26 AM »

Also, it might be a partial explanation, why polls're showing a tightening race.

Quote
24. Should parents or school boards have more of an influence on a school’s curriculum?
  • Parents 49.80%
  • School Boards 38.80%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2021, 07:05:04 AM »

Of note as well is that while Biden's approval here is -11, his personal favorability is only -5. While some may disapprove of what's going on in Washington, there is still a good chunk that likes him personally, which means him showing up for T-Mac isn't as much of a liability as some would like to think.
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Woody
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2021, 07:27:47 AM »

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Woody
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2021, 07:30:31 AM »

Of note as well is that while Biden's approval here is -11, his personal favorability is only -5. While some may disapprove of what's going on in Washington, there is still a good chunk that likes him personally, which means him showing up for T-Mac isn't as much of a liability as some would like to think.
Or.. maybe.. just maybe... there is a solid dem electorate who turn out for who ever has the (D) next to their name?
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2021, 07:46:33 AM »

Lol who cares.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2021, 07:57:17 AM »

Yeah watching results come in for this one is going to be some big time, real entertainment next week 
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2021, 08:01:27 AM »

If Virginia is a tossup, it's going to be a red wave of Biblical proportions next year.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2021, 08:04:46 AM »

All I'm really willing to say for sure is that the consistent even if sometimes misplaced confidence and optimism that I felt going into elections under Trump has been replaced with cautious anxiety and heartburn. Democrats have won or came close to winning governor elections in R-leaning states under similar circumstances but with a unpopular Republican president. The party out of the White House always tends to be more motivated and independents, at least over the past ~15 years, have tended to get pissed off with the incumbent president's party usually within a year or two of taking office.

That being said, polls in recent years have also left me with less confidence in their predictive power so IDK. Guess we'll find out soon!
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Spectator
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2021, 08:16:14 AM »

Safe D race is Safe D, no matter whether McAuliffe only wins by a 1% margin or not. The ultimate victor in this race has never truly been in doubt, only the margin.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2021, 08:37:28 AM »

Based on my empirical analysis, there’s a clear correlation between an increase in wbrocks posts and the degree to which the environment is improving for Republicans.
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2016
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2021, 08:37:34 AM »

Safe D race is Safe D, no matter whether McAuliffe only wins by a 1% margin or not. The ultimate victor in this race has never truly been in doubt, only the margin.
If McAuliffe wins by only a Point that would mean very tough Midterms for Democrats!
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VAR
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2021, 11:43:55 AM »

Men: 58-32 Youngkin
Women: 59-33 McAuliffe

Putting NH to shame!
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BigSerg
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2021, 11:56:43 AM »

Suffolk last poll in 2017: D+4

Phew, it really doesn't look good for McAuliffe.
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