VA-Emerson- tie
Matty:
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Skill and Chance:
Hmmm... I strongly expected a Youngkin lead from this pollster given the trend, but he stalled out at 48%. Strangely, this could be McAuliffe's best non Dem affiliated poll in 2 weeks.
jamestroll:
I'm starting to wonder if a youngkin ayala herring victory is possible
Schiff for Senate:
Quote from: jimmie on October 25, 2021, 03:30:29 PM
I'm starting to wonder if a youngkin ayala herring victory is possible
It isn't. Polls can be wrong. See 2016 and 2020 in WI, MI and PA (I know that the trio supported Biden by 2020, but I remember seeing a lot of polls in which Biden was leading in PA by 7-8 points...he ultimately won by just over 1 point). VA is too liberal to elect Youngkin; it supported Biden by double digits, so although I expect Youngkin to overperform Trump by a noticeable amount, McAuliffe will still ride the state's partisanship to victory. Youngkin ran a decent campaign but that's not enough in VA for a Republican in a statewide race at this point.
EDIT: Note that this is one of Youngkin's best polls out of dozens, and it's not like he's leading in it at all - it's a tie. Youngkin would need to outperform almost all polls to win, and I think he'll have a challenge crossing that last 5% or so. (I have McAuliffe winning by 7.2 points, actually.)
EDIT: I want to add that your own signature probably summarizes why the GOP can't win in VA anymore at all - the suburbs and urbs in NOVA and elsewhere have become Democratic strongholds and Youngkin is too associated with Trump to come near doing as well in them as he needs to in order to win.
wbrocks67:
The problem for Youngkin is that this poll has him doing way better than he realistically will among Blacks (24%) and Latinos (47%) and yet he's still only tied.
Given that he will not be getting anywhere close to that support among those groups, I would clearly rather be McAuliffe.
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