German federal election 2006

[President Johnson]

I always thought calling for snap elections in 2005 was a huge miscalculation by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) after his party lost the NRW state election. How do you think the election would have turned out on schedule, in the fall of 2006? Given how close Schröder came to winning reelection, I think circumstances in 2006 would have been enough to best Merkel's CDU. The economy was better than a year before and the FIFA Soccer World Cup in Germany that summer for certain would have helped an incumbent chief executive.

Even if Red-Green was no longer possible, it would have been enough to come in first and form a grand coalition with Schröder as chancellor and Merkel as vice chancellor. The recession obviously would still have happened, but Chancellor Schröder may have gotten all the credits for successfully managing the crisis ahead of the 2010 election. Then he could have won a fourth term and resign in 2012 or 2013, leaving the chancellorship to Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who again could have run as an incumbent.

[brucejoel99]

I always thought calling for snap elections in 2005 was a huge miscalculation by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) after his party lost the NRW state election.

IIRC, wasn't there a snap election because the Union & FDP could use the Bundesrat to block any legislation that'd already been passed by the SPD/Green majority in the Bundestag? If so, it doesn't really seem like Schröder had much of a choice.

[President Johnson]

I always thought calling for snap elections in 2005 was a huge miscalculation by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) after his party lost the NRW state election.

IIRC, wasn't there a snap election because the Union & FDP could use the Bundesrat to block any legislation that'd already been passed by the SPD/Green majority in the Bundestag? If so, it doesn't really seem like Schröder had much of a choice.

That's true, though the Union had already done that before the NRW state election. That was one of the reasons no minimum wage law was passed in conjuction with the Agenda 2010 reforms and it turned out to be a huge mistake.

As leader of the opposition, Merkel and the CDU used the Bundesrat to block a number of policies, especially those parts of Schröder's reform agenda that were less controversial. So she actually benefited twice since it cost Schröder the chancellorship and later on because as chancellor she was taking the credit for economic benefits that only were made possible by bold reforms passed under the Red-Green government.