Your House Ratings

[ElectionsGuy]

States that have finalized redistricting
Predicted



New District

Likely D: CA-21, CT-02, FL-23, IL-08, IL-11, MD-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NY-04, NC-14, OR-04, OR-06, PA-04, RI-02, TX-28, TX-34, VA-10, WA-06, WA-10
Lean D: CA-09, CA-13, CO-07, CT-05, GA-02, IL-06, IL-13, IL-14, IN-01, NH-02, NM-03, NY-17, NC-06, PA-06
Tilt D: AZ-04, CA-47, CA-49, IL-17, MD-06, MI-08, NV-01, NV-04, OR-05
Tilt R: CA-27, CO-08, KS-03, MI-03, MN-02, NV-03, NM-02, NY-03, NY-18, NY-22, NC-01, OH-01, PA-17, VA-07, WA-08
Lean R: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-22, CA-45, FL-27, IA-03, ME-02, MI-07, NH-01, NJ-07, NY-19, NC-13, OH-09, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02
Likely R: AZ-02, CA-03, CA-40, CA-41, FL-15, FL-28, IA-01, IA-02, MI-04, MI-10, NE-02, NY-01, NY-02, PA-10, TX-15, WI-01, WI-03

Safe D: 151 (inc. TX-35)
Safe R: 191 (inc. FL-04, FL-07, FL-13, FL-18, GA-06, MT-01, OH-14, TN-05, TX-38)

Total D: 195
Total R: 240 ✓

Post your personalized House ratings here as the districts get confirmed.

In addition, my statewide ratings for the total house vote of each state. This is generalized and assumes no races go uncontested (won't happen) so this will change with time, but regardless I'm still considering the specific incumbents right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Texas finalized its map.

It makes all Republican incumbents (including Gonzalez) safe in my view. The only somewhat competitive races are going to be in the Rio Grande Valley. TX-34 is Dem enough that even with the R swing there any Dem should be able to win. TX-28 is a bit more Republican but with Cuellar should be easy to hold for Dems (if he loses his primary, that district could be competitive). TX-15 gets a bit more Republican, and it's a district Trump narrowly won. Republicans should be able to win it if they're going to win the majority next year.

The gerrymander is very aggressive in the DFW area (as it needs to be to be "secure"). What's funny at this point is DFW area is more Dem than the Houston area as a whole, but only has 3 Dem reps whereas the Houston area has 4. It's hard to overstate how bad things have gotten for Republicans in northern Dallas and Collin, it's very hard to draw a clean R-leaning district there. The suburban parts of Collin leaned toward Biden, and the heavily R rural eastern and northern parts of the county are what makes it red. Northern Dallas only has 1 decently Republican area, and it's a narrow heavily white part of the city north of and including University Park. This makes ugly gerrymandering necessary to hold on to those Republican districts. And Texas Republicans made sure of that. They also aggressively gerrymandered the Austin suburbs, making sure to "spread out" the Democratic-leaning areas into several different districts, and limiting the amount of very heavily Republican districts that are 70%+ Republican. While it may help them over the course of the next decade, this seems like a party that's very insecure and doesn't think they can win back these suburbs with clean districts (and they're probably right about that).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DS are gonna gain sts in Ca, IL and NY, 4 RS are vulnerable 8n California

[Tekken_Guy]

Safe D: TX-35
Likely D: CA-09, CA-25, CO-07, IL-08, IL-11, IN-01, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-11, NM-01, NM-03, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D: AZ-04, CA-13, CA-47, CA-49, IL-06, IL-13, IL-14, NV-01, NV-04, OR-05, TX-28
Tilt D: IL-17, ME-02, NV-03, WA-08
Tilt R: CA-27, CO-08, IA-03, NC-02, NM-02, OH-13, TX-15
Lean R: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-22, CA-45, IA-01, MD-01, NE-02, OH-01, OH-09
Likely R: AZ-02, CA-03, CA-40, CA-41, CO-03, IA-02, MT-01, NC-04, NC-14, NJ-02, NJ-07, OH-10, OH-15, TX-23, WA-03
Safe R: NC-11, TX-38

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the ratings today's, it's not the ratings I'm Nov 2022

[Mr.Phips]

Likely D:  IN-01, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D:  OR-05
Tossup:  None
Lean R:  TX-15, ME-02, NE-02

[Pericles]

Likely D: TX-28, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D: IN-01, OR-05
Tilt D:
Tilt R: NE-02, TX-15
Lean R: ME-02
Likely R:

All others are safe.

My boldest takes are with NE-02 and IN-01. NE-02 is still Biden +6%, it's a highly educated district that has strongly trended Democratic in the two Trump elections. While those voters like to split their tickets, Democrats also put up a weak fight against Bacon by nominating Eastman-if they now nominate someone they could pick up this seat. It's pretty common for this seat to move differently to the national environment, so this could be a rare genuine Democratic pickup. IN-01 meanwhile has nasty trends for Democrats, it's a non college-educated white district that Biden did 4 points worse than Hillary in and 15 points worse than Obama. The Biden +8% margin is not going to be that safe in a likely Republican leaning national environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D: TX-28, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D: IN-01, OR-05
Tilt D:
Tilt R: NE-02, TX-15
Lean R: ME-02
Likely R:

All others are safe.

My boldest takes are with NE-02 and IN-01. NE-02 is still Biden +6%, it's a highly educated district that has strongly trended Democratic in the two Trump elections. While those voters like to split their tickets, Democrats also put up a weak fight against Bacon by nominating Eastman-if they now nominate someone they could pick up this seat. It's pretty common for this seat to move differently to the national environment, so this could be a rare genuine Democratic pickup. IN-01 meanwhile has nasty trends for Democrats, it's a non college-educated white district that Biden did 4 points worse than Hillary in and 15 points worse than Obama. The Biden +8% margin is not going to be that safe in a likely Republican leaning national environment.

These are ratings today, it's not ratings on Nov 2022, a blue wave can develop on T Ryan Website he emailed he is tied with J Mandel 38, Mandel isn't gonna win bye 10 like Trump and neither is DeSantis, they're Favs but they can be upset

I said before the EC map doesn't stop at 278/304 it's a 538 map, that's so 2016

Your pal S019 is boldly predicting CRIST and Val to win I am boldly predicting Ryan to win

[Pericles]

Likely D: TX-28, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D: IN-01, OR-05
Tilt D:
Tilt R: NE-02, TX-15
Lean R: ME-02
Likely R:

All others are safe.

My boldest takes are with NE-02 and IN-01. NE-02 is still Biden +6%, it's a highly educated district that has strongly trended Democratic in the two Trump elections. While those voters like to split their tickets, Democrats also put up a weak fight against Bacon by nominating Eastman-if they now nominate someone they could pick up this seat. It's pretty common for this seat to move differently to the national environment, so this could be a rare genuine Democratic pickup. IN-01 meanwhile has nasty trends for Democrats, it's a non college-educated white district that Biden did 4 points worse than Hillary in and 15 points worse than Obama. The Biden +8% margin is not going to be that safe in a likely Republican leaning national environment.

These are ratings today, it's not ratings on Nov 2022, a blue wave can develop on T Ryan Website he emailed he is tied with J Mandel 38, Mandel isn't gonna win bye 10 like Trump and neither is DeSantis, they're Favs but they can be upset

I said before the EC map doesn't stop at 278/304 it's a 538 map, that's so 2016

Your pal S019 is boldly predicting CRIST and Val to win I am boldly predicting Ryan to win

While this is an OC post, Democrats are actually leading the GCB today despite Biden's poor approvals, I expect their poll numbers to follow Biden's approval down.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe D: None

Likely D: TX-37, OR 06, TX-28

Lean D: OR-05, IN-01, TX-15

Tossup: NE-02

Lean R: None

Likely R: ME-02

All others Safe R.

[Chips]

I'd rather wait until every state finishes redistricting to make many judgements. I will say my ratings for two districts. ME-2 and NE-2. I consider ME-2 a true toss-up (with perhaps a slight Republican tilt as of now) and NE-2 a firm Lean Republican. Bacon should be fine unless he does something bad in between now and November of next year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D: TX-28, OR-04, OR-06
Lean D: IN-01, OR-05
Tilt D:
Tilt R: NE-02, TX-15
Lean R: ME-02
Likely R:

All others are safe.

My boldest takes are with NE-02 and IN-01. NE-02 is still Biden +6%, it's a highly educated district that has strongly trended Democratic in the two Trump elections. While those voters like to split their tickets, Democrats also put up a weak fight against Bacon by nominating Eastman-if they now nominate someone they could pick up this seat. It's pretty common for this seat to move differently to the national environment, so this could be a rare genuine Democratic pickup. IN-01 meanwhile has nasty trends for Democrats, it's a non college-educated white district that Biden did 4 points worse than Hillary in and 15 points worse than Obama. The Biden +8% margin is not going to be that safe in a likely Republican leaning national environment.

These are ratings today, it's not ratings on Nov 2022, a blue wave can develop on T Ryan Website he emailed he is tied with J Mandel 38, Mandel isn't gonna win bye 10 like Trump and neither is DeSantis, they're Favs but they can be upset

I said before the EC map doesn't stop at 278/304 it's a 538 map, that's so 2016

Your pal S019 is boldly predicting CRIST and Val to win I am boldly predicting Ryan to win

While this is an OC post, Democrats are actually leading the GCB today despite Biden's poor approvals, I expect their poll numbers to follow Biden's approval down.

I doubt it, awe won on 2020 with 80M voted to Trump 74 since 1992 D's have won the combined Sen and Prez Natl pVI  bit have lost the House OVI due to ,1994/2010 , 1994/2010 didn't have a select Committee investigating insurrection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'd rather wait until every state finishes redistricting to make many judgements. I will say my ratings for two districts. ME-2 and NE-2. I consider ME-2 a true toss-up (with perhaps a slight Republican tilt as of now) and NE-2 a firm Lean Republican. Bacon should be fine unless he does something bad in between now and November of next year.

.
Fed o you realize D's ha ha e won the NPV since 1992Prez Election

[Chips]

I'd rather wait until every state finishes redistricting to make many judgements. I will say my ratings for two districts. ME-2 and NE-2. I consider ME-2 a true toss-up (with perhaps a slight Republican tilt as of now) and NE-2 a firm Lean Republican. Bacon should be fine unless he does something bad in between now and November of next year.

.
Fed o you realize D's ha ha e won the NPV since 1992Prez Election

And?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't a winning party they had only 2 Great midterms it was 94/10 and 10 was due to 11% unemployment and 94 was due Brady Bill and 2014( was due to red Senate map, Rs are a small state party.

[Xing]

I agree overall with OP’s ratings, but I’d move ME-02 to Likely R and TX-15 to Toss-Up or Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree overall with OP’s ratings, but I’d move ME-02 to Likely R and TX-15 to Toss-Up or Tilt R.

You are very pessimistic,😭😭😭😭 it's a yr before the Election didn't you and Icespear say that Beshear can't win and he did and Ryan on his website is tied with Mandel and Mandel isn't gonna win by 1o

Cali, NY and IL are gonna Redistrict 4/9 Ra out

With RS down by 5 seats that's a wash, Golden outperformed in 2018/20

Biden isn't gonna be at 45 next yr

[Xing]

You are very pessimistic,😭😭😭😭

Sorry, Professor, not playing anymore has put me in a bad mood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Have you seen the polls in NC, FL and OH polls lately, there has been none lately you are going bye 45 percent approvals  and it's not even Election time yet, if this was Election season I can see 45 percent

You see with the Fox poll that they were trash Wash )isn't just contradicted Fox in VA Terry has a lead


We're as DS are gonna be voting just like the RS we are the majority we won 2016 65/62 M and 80/74M how do you explain RS are the prohibited Favs 2010 we had 11 percent unemployment and 2014 we had a red map we only lost one blue seat CO, all the others AK, LA and AR were red


S019 is just as pessimistic as you but he has CRIST and DEMING'S winning which is unrealistic in an R wave

[😥]

For all states which finished redistricting

Safe R: 81 (inc. NC-11 (flip))
Likely R: IA-01, MT-01, NC-04, NC-14, OH-10, OH-15
Lean R: IA-03 (flip), ME-02 (flip), NE-02, OH-01, TX-15 (flip)
Tilt R: CO-08 (new), NV-03 (flip), NC-02 (flip), OH-09 (flip)*, OH-13 (flip)
Tilt D: IN-01, NV-01, NV-04, IL-17
Lean D: CO-07, IL-06, IL-13 (flip) OR-05, OR-06, TX-28**
Likely D: OR-04, IL-11, IL-14
Safe D: 45

*If there are any Trump district Democrat, it will be Kaptur. Tilt R as for now, I will change later, can see anything from Lean D to Likely R
**Likely D with Cuellar, Tossup without him


Republicans: 98 (+7)
Democrats: 59 (-4)

[ElectionsGuy]

+AR and CO

All of Arkansas districts are Safe R, and Hill's central AR district got chopped a bit in Little Rock to be made safer red.

The new Colorado map is actually quite vulnerable for Democrats. It makes Ed Perlmutter more vulnerable than Lauren Boebert (who is safe in my view), and creates a new district that, voted for Joe Biden, but would be easily gained by Republicans in a good year. Republicans have a good chance of taking half of the blue-leaning state's representatives.

I'll possibly move the ratings on these districts slightly as I learn more details on them.

[MillennialModerate]

Don’t think I’m being dramatic even one single ounce:

Redistricting & the environment….

make the Houwe overall as SAFE Republican

I honestly think the prospects of Republican +30 is Likely Republican

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Don’t think I’m being dramatic even one single ounce:

Redistricting & the environment….

make the Houwe overall as SAFE Republican

I honestly think the prospects of Republican +30 is Likely Republican

Lol get a grip Rs won VA by 1/2 a pt

[😥]

North Carolina finished its redistricting, I think it is very possible the courts will strike down this map, but we'll see. My ratings updated

[MATTROSE94]

I am thinking that the Republicans will win pretty much every seat that is D+20 or less, which should give them around a 100 seat net gain and the largest House majority for any political party since 1936.