NJ (Schoen Cooperman): Murphy +9/+4/+2

[Senator Incitatus]

This poll was released last week but not reported on nor posted here. Have seen some discussing the dearth of polling in NJ after the Emerson one, so thought I would fill in the gap.

https://38golu1f1ik01c9tej2um08s-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/New-Jersey-2021-Topline-10.15.21-Hill.pdf

Murphy leads across turnout models:

• likely voters: 50-41
• voters who vote in all gubernatorial elections: 49-45
• voters who are certain to vote: 48-46

Poll was conducted October 9–12 and has a 4.4% MoE on the top line numbers. Notably, the categories are all self-identified. This appears to be their first poll of this race.

[Senator Incitatus]

This fits with my ultimate impression that the race will be high single-digits, roughly 54-46.

[Matty]

Pretty mediocre for dems

[Roll Roons]

I think this is from a Dem firm. Still doubt Jack wins but it's getting uncomfortably close for Murphy. This is closer to Lean D than Safe.

[ElectionsGuy]

For a race that no one is talking about and was presumed safe for Democrats, Ciattarelli has gotten a pretty substantive increase in support over the last few months.

[Roll Roons]

For a race that no one is talking about and was presumed safe for Democrats, Ciattarelli has gotten a pretty substantive increase in support over the last few months.

That may be part of the reason why it's gotten closer. The CA recall ended up being a landslide because the Democrats successfully nationalized it, but because NJ has gone under the radar, the same thing hasn't happened.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this is from a Dem firm. Still doubt Jack wins but it's getting uncomfortably close for Murphy. This is closer to Lean D than Safe.

Schoen is a Dem in name only and hasn’t actually supported Dems for almost 20 years.

[wbrocks67]

Party ID here is R 34%, Dem 39%, and Indie 25%. That is.... way off base lol.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1422267480806932482

[Matty]

Am I wrong in thinking NJ was always prime for a dem underperformance?

Race is not nationalized, and repubs haven’t done terrible (Margin wise) in off year elections with dem presidents here

[Roll Roons]

Am I wrong in thinking NJ was always prime for a dem underperformance?

Race is not nationalized, and repubs haven’t done terrible (Margin wise) in off year elections with dem presidents here

No, your assumptions are very valid. I've long thought the same things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Am I wrong in thinking NJ was always prime for a dem underperformance?

Race is not nationalized, and repubs haven’t done terrible (Margin wise) in off year elections with dem presidents here

Your assumptions are very valid.

I agree.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rally around Flag going with Rs in VA and NJ, dead cat bounce because Terry gained most of his votes in VBM not same day voting as well as Murphy

[ElectionsGuy]

Party ID here is R 34%, Dem 39%, and Indie 25%. That is.... way off base lol.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1422267480806932482

I saw that and thought the same thing. Then I looked at the Biden approval, and it's actually much higher than it should be based on national numbers. That would indicate a disproportionate amount of Republicans and Independents in this poll are RINOs and Dem-leaning Indies, a common problem now for pollsters. It also tracks well alongside the Virginia polling recently. So this poll has some indications of flaws but might balance for the topline result.

But this is common for you to do. If a poll "underperforms" your expectations you pick out one thing to dismiss it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Am I wrong in thinking NJ was always prime for a dem underperformance?

Race is not nationalized, and repubs haven’t done terrible (Margin wise) in off year elections with dem presidents here

That's exactly right, and even though I had high expectations of Murphy's re-election early on, I always knew that this would be a possibility. New Jersey Democrats are just not very active in off-year elections, and that was even true in Murphy's 2017 win. Guadagno was always going to lose, between being tied to the very unpopular Christie and Trump being in the White House, but in laser-focusing on property taxes as Ciatarelli is doing too, which makes New Jersey Republicans have a Pavlovian response more than anything, she mitigated how bad her loss could have been. And now Ciatrarelli doesn't appear to be perceived as close to Christie or Trump, as much as the Murphy campaign is trying to do that.

However, Murphy is still going to win. He is still going to be accomplishing a feat that hasn't occurred since 1977-a Democratic Governor getting re-elected with Brendan Byrne in 1977 being the last to do so. It might be a low standard, but it's something that sets this election apart from the pattern of Republican Governors getting elected with Democratic Presidents in office, and vice-versa. It may be a sign of polarization.

It's probably because Murphy doesn't seem to evoke very strong feelings from New Jersey residents, and that's both a benefit and detriment to him. He is fairly popular but in a way where Democrats like him, but don't seem to love him enough to want to turn out like they did in 2018 and 2020, and possibly even 2017. And Republicans may not outright despise him enough as much as they did with Corzine to allow him to lose, but prefer Ciatarelli due to their interests being almost solely based on taxes which Democrats, regardless of what they may or may not have actually done in their tenure, are always perceived as being on the wrong side of (with the exception of 2018 when New Jersey Democrats were very effective at tying the GOP candidates to the SALT changes in the Trump/GOP tax bill).

So yeah, I was hoping this wouldn't be the case, but I am now breaking down and admitting that maybe this will be a single digit victory for Murphy. I still don't think it'll be less than nine points or so though. So I do think this poll overestimates Ciatarelli a little, even as it does confirm that this electorate is going to be more Republican. Even if some of those Ciatarelli supporters are anti-Trump, and many definitely voted for Biden or even Democratic House members, they always seem to distinguish between national and local politics.

I'm kind of over it though. The Virginia race is probably going to be the better indication of national trends, if it says anything at all. So I don't really care how Murphy performs anymore. Or maybe I'm just going back to my habit of keeping my expectations low and possibly being elated when they end up not as bad as I had hoped.

Sorry for the long post.

[CookieDamage]

I think this is from a Dem firm. Still doubt Jack wins but it's getting uncomfortably close for Murphy. This is closer to Lean D than Safe.

Lmao. This is nowhere near lean D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess this is the gold standard for New Jersey. The third model at least.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this is from a Dem firm. Still doubt Jack wins but it's getting uncomfortably close for Murphy. This is closer to Lean D than Safe.

Lmao. This is nowhere near lean D.

Lmao. Actually it's Tilt D.