Coalitions that would give one party a lock on power?
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  Coalitions that would give one party a lock on power?
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Author Topic: Coalitions that would give one party a lock on power?  (Read 2286 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: October 21, 2021, 06:44:22 PM »

What kind of coalitions would give each party a lock on power?
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Matty
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2021, 09:34:59 PM »

a coalition of

whites
asians
blacks
latinos
low income
middle class
wealth
coasts
midwest
south
mountain west
rural
suburban
urban.


that would be tough to beat.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2021, 11:42:57 AM »

If there were truly a uniform class divide that permeated race, age, and gender, with one party dominating among working and middle class voters, that party would be nearly impossible to beat in a fair election.
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Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2021, 08:35:00 PM »

Basically if republicans still did as good with college educated whites as they did in the Bush years they probably would be unbeatable 
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2021, 08:08:34 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2021, 04:31:24 PM by TodayJunior »

For Republicans,
12-15% Black, 40-45% Hispanic, 35-40% Asian, 60-62% white vote

For Democrats,
93-95% Black, 65-70% Hispanic, 65-70% Asian, 40-42% white vote


I’m not sure about how the breakdown would go by education. That realignment is still in progress in real time.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2021, 09:19:54 AM »

If there were truly a uniform class divide that permeated race, age, and gender, with one party dominating among working and middle class voters, that party would be nearly impossible to beat in a fair election.

That was basically 1932-48.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2021, 10:53:53 AM »

The New Deal Coalition is the be-all, end-all of party power in US history, but what goes up must come down. The coalition bought a lot of time it arguably wouldn't have had with World War II and the Kennedy assassination. Even Democrats today, approaching a new hegemony not even on that level, are struggling to manage all the interests in their big tent.
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Wormless Gourd
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2021, 03:49:50 PM »

Black voters being just <30% GOP instead of <10% would probably doom Democrats in too many close states.
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CEO Mindset
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2021, 07:08:57 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2021, 07:14:17 PM by CEO Mindset »

gop dropping abortion and talk of "entitlements reform" would swing enough close north/western areas+shore up the south to get the GOP in power a long time

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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2021, 09:36:04 PM »

Education polarization continuing unabated would be an obvious winner for the GOP, as not even 40% of "uber-educated" Millennials (aged 25-34) have a bachelors degree or higher.  This seems to be the future Democrats keep campaigning for, however
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2021, 09:55:53 PM »

Democrats cobbling together and solidifying a 2008/12 type Obama coalition plus even if with slightly worse margins with WWC and better margins with college educated PMC whites. Only really possible if Bidenism/Build Back Better agenda is implemented to some degree and we get real economic growth from 2022 onwards while inflation dissipates.
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progressive85
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2021, 04:58:07 PM »

Really if everyone in this country under the age of 40 (the oldest millennials and down to the high school students) voted at higher than 80% turnout, en masse, unified and totally for one party from now on, that would do it too.
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Person Man
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2021, 05:58:15 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2021, 06:03:24 PM by Person Man »

Basically if republicans still did as good with college educated whites as they did in the Bush years they probably would be unbeatable  

Basically Bush’s coalition and Trump’s coalition.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/k8ZeJ


This would be if Obama’s young and brown people’s coalition and Biden’s middle class coalition was United and still got Kerry level WWC votes
https://www.270towin.com/maps/joZVz
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2021, 06:00:07 PM »

Basically if republicans still did as good with college educated whites as they did in the Bush years they probably would be unbeatable 

Basically Bush’s coalition and Trump’s coalition.



yup
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2021, 07:39:30 PM »

Democrats getting Obama-levels of support from Hispanics and keeping their 2018-2020 college-educated white suburban support would probably make them very difficult to beat.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #15 on: November 15, 2021, 12:51:26 AM »

Well, the coalition that could have produced the 413 map - that is, near-Obama margins with minorities, newly liberal suburbs, and a partial WWC rebound - would be pretty hard to beat for a long time. This is the "theoretical coalition" that produced those insane Wisconsin polling mirages in October 2020.
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Southern Reactionary Dem
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« Reply #16 on: December 01, 2021, 10:45:29 AM »

Republicans- continue the non-college trend in your favor as it is the vast majority of the electorate and do everything possible to accelerate that same nascent trend among minorities, particularly hispanics. Also, stop the bleeding of whites in former urban and suburban strongholds.

Democrats- Avoid any further bleeding among non-college minorities, keep your newfound (but possibly fickle) suburban white support and wait for non-college whites to decline or find a way to do better among them in the meantime.
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #17 on: December 01, 2021, 01:27:46 PM »

Well, the coalition that could have produced the 413 map - that is, near-Obama margins with minorities, newly liberal suburbs, and a partial WWC rebound - would be pretty hard to beat for a long time. This is the "theoretical coalition" that produced those insane Wisconsin polling mirages in October 2020.

Pretty much. Democrats have a huge coalition on their hands, but their problem is turnout. That can't all be blamed on Republican attacks on voting rights or undemocratic institutions favoring land over people, though- the quality of their nominees is a big reason for this continuing electoral parity that they don't want to accept.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #18 on: December 01, 2021, 01:48:27 PM »

In about 30 years (or possibly even less), Democrats' current coalition.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #19 on: December 16, 2021, 01:26:52 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2021, 01:50:51 AM by Old School Democrat »

GOP: Increase WWC support to Southern white levels, plus increase working class Black & Latino support. Even if some wealthy suburbanites leave the party, it would lock the South and flip the Sunbelt back to near W Bush levels which would be effective. Going populist on economics, calling for reconciliation on racial issues, and going isolationist can make this successful.



Dark symbolizes likely/safe states
Light represents tossups

Swing states = Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and ME-(At. lg).

Dems: Keep Biden's 2020 coalition, add the support of white collar suburbanites, as well as ruralites with a touch of Jeffersonian agrarianism. Moving left on economics but remaining capitalistic, favoring free trade, and ignoring some of the more pressing/controversial social issues could make this coalition possible.



Dems could get over 400 E.V. if they court enough of the rural vote. It's unlikely some of the swing states would flip back, but if they work hard enough it's possible. It might seem crazy but Obama nearly won most of these swing states and the swing state margin of victory I put for these swing states is <10, so it doesn't mean all of these states would be within striking distance.

Light = Tossup/Swing states
Dark = Likely/Safe states

Swing states = Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, ME-2, NE (At. lg) & NE-1.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #20 on: December 16, 2021, 04:50:00 AM »

Basically if republicans still did as good with college educated whites as they did in the Bush years they probably would be unbeatable 

Basically Bush’s coalition and Trump’s coalition.



yup

Would be similar to the Reagan, Eisenhower and Coolidge coalitions except with a higher ceiling in some ways then any of them, a scary thought.
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« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2021, 12:43:00 AM »

Polarization between dog people and cat people (source)



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Indy Texas
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« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2022, 12:47:18 AM »

If the Republicans become the "people who did not get a bachelor's degree" party, they will finally be able to get consistent, reliable majorities that other parties of the right like the British Tories and the German CDU have enjoyed since the late 20th century.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #23 on: January 11, 2022, 11:24:58 PM »

If the Republicans become the "people who did not get a bachelor's degree" party, they will finally be able to get consistent, reliable majorities that other parties of the right like the British Tories and the German CDU have enjoyed since the late 20th century.

2019 was the first reliable majority the Conservatives won since like 1987.
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Person Man
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« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2022, 10:56:46 AM »

Basically if republicans still did as good with college educated whites as they did in the Bush years they probably would be unbeatable 

Basically Bush’s coalition and Trump’s coalition.



yup

Would be similar to the Reagan, Eisenhower and Coolidge coalitions except with a higher ceiling in some ways then any of them, a scary thought.

"A coalition of people who live off of loans and those who write them".
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