NJ GOV (Emerson) - Murphy + 6

[kwabbit]

Emerson was the most accurate presidential level poll in 2020 (last 2 polls Biden +4 and Biden +5, final result Biden +4.5), so this has to be taken seriously.  Also makes me think there's about a 90% chance their final VA poll shows a Youngkin lead.  

Emerson also had Newsom +2 and then +20 in California in a matter of weeks, so...

It's funny how we're called D hacks and yet every single time there is a terrible poll for Ds, the blue avatars come running in and ignoring every other poll of the race.

There’s been such a lack of polling that this poll is the best estimate of where the race is. I think Murphy’s probably up by a few more, but it’s tightening. I don’t think Obama gets sent in if Murphy is cruising to re-election. Murphy is more popular than Corzine, but the environment is becoming analogous. An unpopular Dem president gives Rs a shot in NJ, the state likes electing Republican governors.

[Xing]

Yeah, Democrats should just concede AZ/GA/NH/NV, and probably CO as well, at this point. I mean, now that polls are showing what I like Republicans doing well, obviously they’re perfectly accurate, nothing can change between now and 2022 (or 2024, for that matter), and Democrats are going to do worse than 1994/2010.

Anyway, I could see this being a high-single digit win for Murphy, but Atlas is overreacting as usual, and it’s kind of funny how the forum has done a 180 on trusting polls since December of last year.

Considering that this forum is overwhelmingly populated by Democratic partisans, I don't know how you can say 'this forum' is happy with the results of the poll.

Because some are doomers who get a weird kind of masochistic pleasure in making over-the-top predictions about how horribly Democrats will do, and then exaggerate how "right" or "almost right" they were.

And it sounds like you're talking about a small number of posters. While I didn't think Wisconsin would be as close as it was, I didn't buy Biden winning it by 10, either. I'd be just as skeptical of polls showing McAuliffe winning by 15 and Murphy by 20 as I am polls showing McAuliffe and Youngkin tied and Murphy only up 4.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

[wbrocks67]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

or maybe - just maybe - it's a bad poll!

[Roll Roons]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

or maybe - just maybe - it's a bad poll!

Or maybe - just maybe - this race has actually tightened and you shouldn't just blindly dismiss anything you don't like as junk. Despite what you seem to think, Jack has actually run a pretty aggressive campaign.

[wbrocks67]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

or maybe - just maybe - it's a bad poll!

Or maybe - just maybe - this race has actually tightened and you shouldn't just blindly dismiss anything you don't like as junk. Despite what you seem to think, Jack has actually run a pretty aggressive campaign.

And despite what you think, Murphy has also run a pretty aggressive campaign. Blue avatars do the same exact thing that I'm accused of doing here.

[Senator Incitatus]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

or maybe - just maybe - it's a bad poll!

Or maybe - just maybe - this race has actually tightened and you shouldn't just blindly dismiss anything you don't like as junk. Despite what you seem to think, Jack has actually run a pretty aggressive campaign.

And despite what you think, Murphy has also run a pretty aggressive campaign. Blue avatars do the same exact thing that I'm accused of doing here.

No he hasn't. Murphy has run a safe, boring campaign focused on preserving his base. He will probably get exactly what he played for: a small but sure win. Don't confuse a bad personality for aggression.

[beesley]

People don't need to have a go at eachother for drawing conclusions from this poll. As with all polls, it is better to wait for corroborating evidence and consider the poll in conjunction with others, and then you can discard it. But nobody has pointed out anything to do with the methodology (other than IndyRep), so a pretty useless discussion all in all.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Emerson uses MTurk, until they stop doing this, I won't take their polls seriously, good that they finally believe in undecideds though

also 50+44+7=101, just fantastic

Emerson was more accurate than most pollsters last year

[republican1993]

I'm undecided but leaning republican for voting

[Progressive Pessimist]

People are really getting tired of masks and distancing it seems. That's the only
way I can explain this

I made a lengthy post in the Schoen poll of the race, but I don't think the pandemic is not actually all that relevant in this race. Obviously, the anti-mask/anti-vax crowd is going to support Ciatarelli, yet off-year gubernatorial races in New Jersey always seem to end up being about taxes, to the GOP's benefit. But with polarization setting in, it may not necessarily win them the governorship anymore when a Democrat is in the White House

[sguberman]

Why are people taking this poll so seriously here? you guys really believe Ciattarelli is going to win independents by 25 points?

[Senator Incitatus]

Why are people taking this poll so seriously here? you guys really believe Ciattarelli is going to win independents by 25 points?

Christie won them by 30 in a race with a serious independent candidate running and Murphy only won them by four in a landslide. A Republican winning them by 25 (and losing) is not out of the question; it’s a very Democratic state and independents tend to be shy Republicans, particularly downstream from national politics.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

BTW, with undecideds allocated, they had it Murphy + 4, so did really well here just like in VA

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Emerson and Trafalgar both have an A rating on 538. They proved, they are fairly good pollsters yet again.

But red avatars are gonna cherrypick and be like hehe Memerson, hihi lol Decimals Trafalgar.