MO - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (Greitens internal): Greitens +6/+7

[VAR]

https://www.scribd.com/document/533981025/US-Senate-Race-poll-released-by-Eric-Greitens

Eric Greitens (R) 47%
Lucas Kunce (D) 40%

Eric Greitens (R) 47%
Scott Sifton (D) 41%

Approvals
Trump - 55/44 (+11)
Biden - 39/60 (-21)

Survey of 600 likely voters, October 3-4

[SnowLabrador]

If Greitens is only up by 6 or 7, that's not a horrible sign for the overall national environment for Democrats. That being said, polling in Missouri underestimates Republicans.

[user12345]

Biden approval isn't that bad given he got around 41% of the vote in 2020.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Kunce at 40% 👀

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

oddly D-leaning looking considering it's a R internal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce can win this

[Pericles]

We know where those 'undecideds' will go here.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's favorability would suggest he's at about -1 or -2 nationwide, but this was also a few weeks ago, so not too far off (I think it was about -3 or -4 a few weeks ago, compared to -6/-7 now)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know where those 'undecideds' will go here.

Kander almost won in 2015/ stop being pessimistic and be bold we need to Keep the H Mccarthy will try to decertify Biden on Jan 6th if he is Speaker as I said in MT thread be bold, we need the Trifecta to pass DC Statehood, Immigration reform, Filibuster reform and VR

[MT Treasurer]

Extrapolating Biden's or Democrats' national numbers (or even the entire 'environment') from one Missouri poll of a race involving a highly controversial and very damaged R candidate in a state where Democrats tend to outperform the state's presidential lean in state/Senate races while ignoring or downplaying the countless actual national polls which paint a pretty clear picture is, of course, very disingenuous.

[wbrocks67]

Extrapolating Biden's or Democrats' national numbers (or even the entire 'environment') from one Missouri poll of a race involving a highly controversial and very damaged R candidate in a state where Democrats tend to outperform the state's presidential lean in state/Senate races while ignoring or downplaying the countless actual national polls which paint a pretty clear picture is, of course, very disingenuous.

How is extrapolating Biden's approval disingenuous? We would do that with any state poll.

Actually, the 538 Biden approval average on October 4th was -4, so this would actually be pretty close, since it would equal out to about a Biden -2/-3 national approval.

[S019]

I buy that the Democrats will get 40%, still Safe R, yawn

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce, a decorate Marine like Buttigeg has a better chance than Beasley, it's not yawn the last poll had it RS plus 15

Beasley tripped over herself by endorsement of Filibuster

[Senator Incitatus]

Kunce-Greitens is a race where I would actually give the Democrat a look, though he would still have no chance.

[Hope For A New Era]

I can see it if Dems have a good night (relatively, for a D midterm) in 2022, but I'd say the most likely result is about Greitens +10. Greitens's floor is probably around +5, while any other R's floor is probably around +9 (with the most likely result being about the 2020 presidential margin, +15).

A miraculous Jay Nixon candidacy might push those "most likely results" down a point or two, but the floors probably don't budge.


A Democratic statewide victory probably won't be possible again in Missouri until at least the end of the decade, and even then would require a 2018-size wave. The Missouri Democratic Party literally has nowhere to go but up, but it's doing it extremely slowly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce-Greitens is a race where I would actually give the Democrat a look, though he would still have no chance.

Anything is possible if Biden gets back over 503 again, this is wave insurance and Sifton or Kunce is more pragmatic than Beasley and Demings more like Ryan, nothing is impossible

[Senator Incitatus]

Kunce-Greitens is a race where I would actually give the Democrat a look, though he would still have no chance.

Anything is possible if Biden gets back over 503 again, this is wave insurance and Sifton or Kunce is more pragmatic than Beasley and Demings more like Ryan, nothing is impossible

Democrats are not winning Missouri or any kind of wave in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce-Greitens is a race where I would actually give the Democrat a look, though he would still have no chance.

Anything is possible if Biden gets back over 503 again, this is wave insurance and Sifton or Kunce is more pragmatic than Beasley and Demings more like Ryan, nothing is impossible

Democrats are not winning Missouri or any kind of wave in 2022.

Biden 8s above 50 percent, 52/45 anything is possible he isn't 45 percent


You guys also said KS and KY were too red and look e
We elected Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear

A 5 pt lead fir Grietans is disasterous when Galloway lost by 15
Ryan and Scott Sifton whom are more moderate than DEMING'S and Beasley can be in the Senate together

[One Term Floridian]

Yep and 40/41% is all Dems are ever gonna get in MO next year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep and 40/41% is all Dems are ever gonna get in MO next year

OH and MO are wave insurance, some users don't know what wave insurance means and Sifton and Ryan are more moderate than Socialistic Demings and Beasley, whom won win in this Environment due to word Socialism has a bad name now

Barnes and Warnock are socialistic like Obama but they are men not female

Again this poll isn't great news for Grietans,  Socialist Galloway lost by 15 not 5

Beshear was in the mid 40s and so was Laura Kelly and they won

[Sir Mohamed]

Yep and 40/41% is all Dems are ever gonna get in MO next year

OH and MO are wave insurance, some users don't know what wave insurance means and Sifton and Ryan are more moderate than Socialistic Demings and Beasley, whom won win in this Environment due to word Socialism has a bad name now

Barnes and Warnock are socialistic like Obama but they are men not female

Again this poll isn't great news for Grietans,  Socialist Galloway lost by 15 not 5

Beshear was in the mid 40s and so was Laura Kelly and they won

Ugh, odd comparison. Gov races are vastly different in these states, and the national environment was much more friendly for Dems at the time since the orange buffoon was prez with low approvals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yep and 40/41% is all Dems are ever gonna get in MO next year

OH and MO are wave insurance, some users don't know what wave insurance means and Sifton and Ryan are more moderate than Socialistic Demings and Beasley, whom won win in this Environment due to word Socialism has a bad name now

Barnes and Warnock are socialistic like Obama but they are men not female

Again this poll isn't great news for Grietans,  Socialist Galloway lost by 15 not 5

Beshear was in the mid 40s and so was Laura Kelly and they won

Ugh, odd comparison. Gov races are vastly different in these states, and the national environment was much more friendly for Dems at the time since the orange buffoon was prez with low approvals.

News flash Kelly is ahead in Clarity poll Tim Ryan is tied with Josh Mandel and Demings in only 4 pts behind Rubio stop acting like we can't win red states Tester, Brown and Manchin won in 2008/12 with Biden as Veeo and Biden was barely at 50 he only won 51/47 in 2012/ stop acting like these are permanently red state

Everything isn't about 304 have you looked at 2024 map we can't keep the Senate if we only win blue states, OH, WVA and MT are gone if DC Statehood or D's don't go eat Ryan elected by
You act like the Rs that Biden is gonna stay permanent at 45%

Galloway lost by 15 and Sifton is only down by 5