🇩🇪 Predict the allocation of the ministries in the upcoming Scholz cabinet 🚦

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Now that the coalition negotiations between the Ampel parties have officially begun, I thought it's time for some crystal ball gazing.

I've already eliminated the obvious answers: The Greens are going to occupy the newly created veto-powered Climate Ministry; the SPD is neither going to apply for the post of Foreign Minister nor for the post of Finance Minister; conversely; Chancellor Scholz will appoint a comrade of his to the post of Head of the Chancellery and therefore Federal Minister for Special Affairs.
Furthermore, I've added a hitherto non-existing Ministry for Digital Infrastructure, which is presently a portfolio within the Federal Ministry of Transport; I proceed on the assumption that it will be newly founded by the next government

[beesley]

Is there any convention that reasonably similar ministries would stay under either the same or different party? So economic affairs wouldn't be under the same party as the finance ministry?

[President Johnson]

My cabinet prediction:

- Chancellor: Olaf Scholz
- Vice Chancellor/Foreign: Annalena Baerbock
- Finance: Christian Lindner
- Climate and Environment: Robert Habeck
- Interior: Christine Lambrecht
- Labor: Hubertus Heil (retained)
- Economy: Volker Wissing
- Defense: Lars Klingbeil
- Justice: Svenja Schulze
- Health: Karl Lauterbach
- Agriculture: Some Green from a state cabinet
- Family Affairs: Katrin Göring-Eckhardt (?)
- Digital infrastructure: Johannes Vogel (FDP)
- Transportation: Anton Hofreiter
- Education: Saskia Esken
- Economic Cooperation: Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (?)
- Chief of Chancellery: Wolfgang Schmidt


I still think Baerbock will end up as vice chancellor because the chancellor is male.

Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) is also an obvious and qualified candidate Defense, though Lars Klingbeil is certainly a given since Scholz will award him for putting together an excellent campaign for the SPD.

Now that Bärbel Bas is nominated for Bundestag president, chances for Karl Lauterbach as Health Minister have increased. I really hope he gets the position.

A big question is whether the Greens will change their statutes since party leaders aren't permited to hold cabinet positions. I really don't think Baerbock and Habeck will give up the positions as party leaders. Their standings within the party aren't in question at all.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My prediction:

Starting from the premise that there will be 16 different ministries, the SPD should theoretically get 8 departments, the Greens 5, and the FDP 3. But as the Social Democrats don't intend to annoy the Free Democrats, they cede one granted ministry of theirs to the one-man party.


- Chancellor: Olaf Scholz
- Climate + Vice Chancellor: ACAB
- Foreign: Cem Özdemir
- Treasury: Christian Lindner
- Interior: Boris Pistorius
- Labor: Hubertus Heil (retention)
- Economy: Volker Wissing
- Defense: MASZ
- Justice: Christine Lambrecht (retention)
- Health: Karl Lauterbach
- Agriculture: Till Backhaus
- Family Affairs: Ekin Deligöz
- Digital infrastructure: Johannes Vogel (FDP) (re-entry)
- Transportation: Anton Hofreiter
- Education: Saskia Esken 🤢
- Economic Cooperation: Katrin Göring-Eckhardt
- Chief of Chancellery: Lars Klingbeil


Robert Habeck intends to become the Green gubernatorial candidate for next year's Schleswig-Holstein state election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

- Interior: Christine Lambrecht
- Justice: Svenja Schulze

Why? Seriously, why? 🤷🏼‍♂️

- Defense: Lars Klingbeil

You already speculated that before. I don't say your prediction is wrong, but do you as a member of the Social Democrats know about any indications of his potential appointment?
He has never stood out as a military maven. Nor were both his predecessors, of course; qualification is not a prerequisite for any political portfolio in Germany, but floating his name seems a bit random and a bit of a stretch.

- Digital infrastructure: Johannes Vogel (FDP)

I think he's a realistic choice; thus I mentioned him in my prediction, too.
But what about Linda Teuteberg? She's a woman, she's "young" (compared to other MPs), she was born in the GDR, she has worked at the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, plus the FDP owes her one after her shitstorm-inducing dismissal as general secretary.

- Transportation: Anton Hofreiter

That figures! The Ministry of Transport seems to be reserved for Bavarians only. 😋

- Education: Saskia Esken

🤢🤢🤢 What's "stellvertretende Vorsitzende des Landeselternbeirats Baden-Württemberg" in English, btw? 🤣🤣🤣

- Economic Cooperation: Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (?)

Really? MASZ has been overtly groomed for the Ministry of Defense over the last decade. I don't think she would let herself get fobbed off with the booby prize, also called "carpet ministry".
That would be like appeasing Dr. Karl Lauterbach by promising him the ministry of Gedöns.

- Chief of Chancellery: Wolfgang Schmidt

Never heard of him. Why not Lars Klingbeil?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to the poll results, we'll have to keep a weather eye on the following departments:

· Education and Research
· Economic Affairs
· Family Affairs
· Agriculture

So should we on the matter of defense, as y'all - in my estimation - checked the wrong answer.