NH-SEN (Granite State Poll): Sununu +3

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1451153482833137666

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that though *he meant favorability instead of approval, but this poll has a 'neutral' option, so you could have people in that neutral option that may or may not pick favorable or unfavorable if they had to.

The actual favorabilities are:

Hassan
33% favorable
16% neutral
51% unfavorable

Sununu
41% favorable
23% neutral
36% unfavorable

So saying Hassan has -18 and even Sununu only has +5 are both pretty incorrect. Both are clearly much more popular than that.

Also, I don't really see how this is necessarily bad for Dems here - given Sununu's popularity as GOV, only +3 isn't too bad for Hassan.

[SnowLabrador]

Lean R if Sununu runs, Tossup if he doesn't.

[wbrocks67]

Is Ayotte even a realistic chance to run here? I feel like we haven't heard anything of her running.

[KaiserDave]

33% approval and still only down by 3, over a year out?

Sounds fine.

[MT Treasurer]

The fact that all the GOP can muster here is a narrow lead (Sununu) or something close to a tie (Ayotte) when the incumbent has a -18 (33/51) (!) favorability rating really does not suggest that this is the most likely Senate pick-up for Republicans. I never bought that NH would 'definitely' or even 'likely' flip before AZ and NV, and it’s increasingly looking like this is pick-up no. 4 rather than pick-up no. 1 for Team Red. We’ve seen this movie before with people underestimating the state's strong Democratic lean at the federal level.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden effect?

[Sir Mohamed]

The fact that all the GOP can muster here is a narrow lead (Sununu) or something close to a tie (Ayotte) when the incumbent has a -18 (33/51) (!) favorability rating really does not suggest that this is the most likely Senate pick-up for Republicans. I never bought that NH would 'definitely' or even 'likely' flip before AZ and NV, and it’s increasingly looking like this is pick-up no. 4 rather than pick-up no. 1 for Team Red. We’ve seen this movie before with people underestimating the state's strong Democratic lean at the federal level.

Qustion is whether Hassan is actually -18 in favorability. But even if true, that doesn't suggest she'll automatically be in trouble since partisanship will almost certainly kick in as soon as the campaign heats up. McConnell manages to win all time despite poor approvals due to partisanship in national races, which is very different from gov races in these states. NH obviously is far less blue than KY is non-Atlas red; though Sununu is not a shoe-in despite having strong approvals in his current job.

Should neither Sununu nor Ayotte run for senate, this race instantly moves to Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

I would bet that most of the 'neutral' groups would move to 'favorable' if they had to choose, so we're probably looking at something like 49/51 or so for Hassan and 64/36 for Sununu which would align more closely with what we've seen in other polls.

That being said, the fact that Sununu is still only +3 with that big of a difference isn't great for him. Wonder if things like this make him question running.

[Dan the Roman]

New Hampshire is in a weird place.

Democrats are far less popular than in November 2020 which was not super popular.

The Republican legislature and local officials have gone full-on Florida/Texas

Sununu has basically blocked a ton of GOP legislative initiatives with the help of a few dozen moderate Rs.

Trump remains quite unpopular with the semi-political folks I run into at the gym, diners etc

So this seems plausible. I think Sununu could win, generic R would lose, and the question is how much Sununu differeniates.

Sununu actually comes off a lot more independent, or at least stubborn than Collins, insofar as he actually does pick and win fights. That I think will probably carry him. However, he is one or two caves to hardliners away from serious trouble on that and the MAGA wing seems deliberately out to damage him by pushing as much inflammatory culture war stuff as possible.

Difference, again from Collins is he stands firm

Difference from other moderates like Lugar is he seems to know whats going on

Difference from Baker is that he seems to actually really care

[wbrocks67]

New Hampshire is in a weird place.

Democrats are far less popular than in November 2020 which was not super popular.

The Republican legislature and local officials have gone full-on Florida/Texas

Sununu has basically blocked a ton of GOP legislative initiatives with the help of a few dozen moderate Rs.

Trump remains quite unpopular with the semi-political folks I run into at the gym, diners etc

So this seems plausible. I think Sununu could win, generic R would lose, and the question is how much Sununu differeniates.

Sununu actually comes off a lot more independent, or at least stubborn than Collins, insofar as he actually does pick and win fights. That I think will probably carry him. However, he is one or two caves to hardliners away from serious trouble on that and the MAGA wing seems deliberately out to damage him by pushing as much inflammatory culture war stuff as possible.

Difference, again from Collins is he stands firm

Difference from other moderates like Lugar is he seems to know whats going on

Difference from Baker is that he seems to actually really care

Sununu actually does seem reasonable, I'll give him that. He seems much more in vein with Baker and Hogan. Colins meanwhile is nothing but a fake.

[KaiserDave]

New Hampshire is in a weird place.

Democrats are far less popular than in November 2020 which was not super popular.

The Republican legislature and local officials have gone full-on Florida/Texas

Sununu has basically blocked a ton of GOP legislative initiatives with the help of a few dozen moderate Rs.

Trump remains quite unpopular with the semi-political folks I run into at the gym, diners etc

So this seems plausible. I think Sununu could win, generic R would lose, and the question is how much Sununu differeniates.

Sununu actually comes off a lot more independent, or at least stubborn than Collins, insofar as he actually does pick and win fights. That I think will probably carry him. However, he is one or two caves to hardliners away from serious trouble on that and the MAGA wing seems deliberately out to damage him by pushing as much inflammatory culture war stuff as possible.

Difference, again from Collins is he stands firm

Difference from other moderates like Lugar is he seems to know whats going on

Difference from Baker is that he seems to actually really care

Sununu actually does seem reasonable, I'll give him that. He seems much more in vein with Baker and Hogan. Colins meanwhile is nothing but a fake.

Just absurdly wrong

[wbrocks67]

New Hampshire is in a weird place.

Democrats are far less popular than in November 2020 which was not super popular.

The Republican legislature and local officials have gone full-on Florida/Texas

Sununu has basically blocked a ton of GOP legislative initiatives with the help of a few dozen moderate Rs.

Trump remains quite unpopular with the semi-political folks I run into at the gym, diners etc

So this seems plausible. I think Sununu could win, generic R would lose, and the question is how much Sununu differeniates.

Sununu actually comes off a lot more independent, or at least stubborn than Collins, insofar as he actually does pick and win fights. That I think will probably carry him. However, he is one or two caves to hardliners away from serious trouble on that and the MAGA wing seems deliberately out to damage him by pushing as much inflammatory culture war stuff as possible.

Difference, again from Collins is he stands firm

Difference from other moderates like Lugar is he seems to know whats going on

Difference from Baker is that he seems to actually really care

Sununu actually does seem reasonable, I'll give him that. He seems much more in vein with Baker and Hogan. Colins meanwhile is nothing but a fake.

Just absurdly wrong

Sununu's worse? I'm genuinely asking. I thought he was more of the actual 'moderate' GOP type. Or is he more like Collins, who is clearly a Republican trying to act like they're a fake moderate?

[KaiserDave]

New Hampshire is in a weird place.

Democrats are far less popular than in November 2020 which was not super popular.

The Republican legislature and local officials have gone full-on Florida/Texas

Sununu has basically blocked a ton of GOP legislative initiatives with the help of a few dozen moderate Rs.

Trump remains quite unpopular with the semi-political folks I run into at the gym, diners etc

So this seems plausible. I think Sununu could win, generic R would lose, and the question is how much Sununu differeniates.

Sununu actually comes off a lot more independent, or at least stubborn than Collins, insofar as he actually does pick and win fights. That I think will probably carry him. However, he is one or two caves to hardliners away from serious trouble on that and the MAGA wing seems deliberately out to damage him by pushing as much inflammatory culture war stuff as possible.

Difference, again from Collins is he stands firm

Difference from other moderates like Lugar is he seems to know whats going on

Difference from Baker is that he seems to actually really care

Sununu actually does seem reasonable, I'll give him that. He seems much more in vein with Baker and Hogan. Colins meanwhile is nothing but a fake.

Just absurdly wrong

Sununu's worse? I'm genuinely asking. I thought he was more of the actual 'moderate' GOP type. Or is he more like Collins, who is clearly a Republican trying to act like they're a fake moderate?

Apologies for my previously harsh tone but Sununu is easily the most right wing of the Scott/Baker/Hogan bunch, and I have no doubt like his brother he would be a more or less reliable vote for McConnell. Don't pin your hopes on him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan is gonna win, I thought that this was Likely R

[S019]

If Hassan's approval rating is at 33%, then those undecideds sure don't favor her.

[Spectator]

The fact that all the GOP can muster here is a narrow lead (Sununu) or something close to a tie (Ayotte) when the incumbent has a -18 (33/51) (!) favorability rating really does not suggest that this is the most likely Senate pick-up for Republicans. I never bought that NH would 'definitely' or even 'likely' flip before AZ and NV, and it’s increasingly looking like this is pick-up no. 4 rather than pick-up no. 1 for Team Red. We’ve seen this movie before with people underestimating the state's strong Democratic lean at the federal level.

Yes, my first thought after seeing that was “shouldn’t Sununu’s lead be a lot bigger?”

[free my dawg]

If Hassan's approval rating is at 33%, then those undecideds sure don't favor her.

F**k around and find out.

[Xing]

I don't buy for a second that this is the least likely R flip, and I think it's more likely to flip before AZ than after GA/NV. It's not the case that Sununu has nowhere to go but down and Brnovich/Laxalt/Walker have nowhere to go but up. Sununu might be a fake moderate, but it's not like that matters to voters, especially given Hassan's favorability ratings are much worse than Masto's. Sticking with my prediction of a 52/48 Senate with AZ/NH flipping and GA/NV holding for the Democrats for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't buy for a second that this is the least likely R flip, and I think it's more likely to flip before AZ than after GA/NV. It's not the case that Sununu has nowhere to go but down and Brnovich/Laxalt/Walker have nowhere to go but up. Sununu might be a fake moderate, but it's not like that matters to voters, especially given Hassan's favorability ratings are much worse than Masto's. Sticking with my prediction of a 52/48 Senate with AZ/NH flipping and GA/NV holding for the Democrats for now.

As I said on 2024 thread 270 to get to Prez is ENSHRINED in the Constitution, OH, MO we almost won MO in 2016/ and FL Senate races are in play, 304 only on not ENSHRINED IN CONSTITUTION IF DS NET 55/45 SEK SEATS PLUS THE H, RS ARE GONNA LOSE CAL, IL, NY STS 4/8 of them that can make up for the losses in FL if VR isn't passed and Beto doesn't cash in and run for Gov or McCounghey, Biden, Manchin said they are open to a standing not full repeal of Filibuster


Xing iI do remember you along with Icespear say that in all fairness that KY was too Red to go for Andy Beshear, well along with Laura Kelly, he is favored and Manchin, Brown and Ryan have never lost a GE matchup before and WI, Johnson supports Proud Boys has only been tied in a Poll, there wasn't any leaf in that Clarity poll

55/45 Senate lowers the threshold for Filibuster without a change we can win LA too in a Runoff
I don't know what happenef to Icespear but he tried to ban people and abused the banning privileges and tried to ban me, he thought I was one of those WI naysayers, that's what happened when you spend all day on the computer

[MT Treasurer]

I don't buy for a second that this is the least likely R flip, and I think it's more likely to flip before AZ than after GA/NV. It's not the case that Sununu has nowhere to go but down and Brnovich/Laxalt/Walker have nowhere to go but up. Sununu might be a fake moderate, but it's not like that matters to voters, especially given Hassan's favorability ratings are much worse than Masto's. Sticking with my prediction of a 52/48 Senate with AZ/NH flipping and GA/NV holding for the Democrats for now.

VA — Biden +10 — gubernatorial race — "Likely/Safe D, McAuliffe's got this in the bag and it’s delusional to pretend that VA is still winnable for Republicans. Ignore the polling and start paying attention to the fundamentals and the state's partisan lean."

NH — Biden +8 — federal race — "Tilt/Lean R, Hassan is definitely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and there’s no way this doesn’t flip before NV [Biden +2]/GA [Biden +<0.5]/AZ [Biden +<0.5]."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't buy for a second that this is the least likely R flip, and I think it's more likely to flip before AZ than after GA/NV. It's not the case that Sununu has nowhere to go but down and Brnovich/Laxalt/Walker have nowhere to go but up. Sununu might be a fake moderate, but it's not like that matters to voters, especially given Hassan's favorability ratings are much worse than Masto's. Sticking with my prediction of a 52/48 Senate with AZ/NH flipping and GA/NV holding for the Democrats for now.

VA — Biden +10 — gubernatorial race — "Likely/Safe D, McAuliffe's got this in the bag and it’s delusional to pretend that VA is still winnable for Republicans. Ignore the polling and start paying attention to the fundamentals and the state's partisan lean."

NH — Biden +8 — federal race — "Tilt/Lean R, Hassan is definitely the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, and there’s no way this doesn’t flip before NV [Biden +2]/GA [Biden +<0.5]/AZ [Biden +<0.5]."

NH isn't still R and SUNUNU is only up 3, try again and Biden won't be at 45% next yr, Covid is going away

Wasn't Sununu fans falling over polls when he was up nine pts, that poll was inflated

At the Minimum D's will hold the 291/ blue wall but of course Rs think  we can't get past 304 that 304 is ENSHRINED in the Constitution

This is a bad not good poll for SUNUNU

[free my dawg]

Despite my gloating about Hassan getting what she deserves, this is an awful poll for Sununu. I expected his approval to fall if he ran for Senate due to how far-right the Legislature was. I expected some compromises to be made, and some blowback from the Executive Council's imminent defunding of Planned Parenthood.

I didn't expect the Sununu wing to capitulate. I certainly didn't expect my state to become the epicenter of the anti-vax movement. For those who haven't been catching up with my previous developments, the state legislative majority Sununu elected has been one of the most anti-vax in the country. Over the past few months:

* The Speaker has appeared at an anti-vax rally.

* The chair of the Finance Committee argued with Sununu's HHS commissioner about vaccines, citing a talk radio caller

* Said chair shared an article claiming the Catholic Church created the virus for population control.

* A state representative accused another of selectively reporting close contacts in contact tracing to endanger Democrats.

* Anti-vax protesters have successfully shut down an Executive Council meeting. This meeting was over the $27 million in federal grants to fund vaccine efforts. I believe this is the first time they've disrupted something on the state level.

* Two weeks later, the Executive Council rejected that $27 million. Again - a first in the nation.

A perfect example of how far-right the NHGOP has turned would be my new Executive Councilor, Janet Stevens. Stevens was a #NeverTrumper as late as 2020. She was a literal co-chair for Weld's campaign. She committed the modern GOP's cardinal sin, somehow still won the primary, and allegedly campaigned as a Sununu Republican. Once she got into office, she started voting indiscriminately from the rest of her colleagues. She voted to defund Planned Parenthood and voted against funding vaccines.

The reality is that in order to win a Republican primary in NH, you need to go along to get along. And because of that reality, Sununu was always going to be a paper tiger. If he wins - and I still don't think it's likely - it will be because the wave pulled him across.

[Pericles]

Not great for Republicans, they want to start out with a big lead or at least closer to 50% if they have to significantly outrun the previous presidential election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan is going nowhere when polls show that she is within 3