When do you think we'll see a full completion of the current realignment

[Sea-Spit]

Seeing as how we're currently seeing the Sun Belt become the Blue Belt and the Rust Belt become the Red Belt. When do you think we'll see this realignment end?

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the game has kind of changed now.  The best long-term bet for Democrats is nationalizing the white college+ vote.  Hillary's numbers with Hispanic voters and trends in the SW seem to have been a one-time thing, but this could be good for Dems in the EC in the long run.

The goal for Republicans is obviously to flip back the Obama-Trump-Biden states.  After that, it now looks more attractive to try to make a play for NV and maybe NM, and try to make sure AZ 2020 is remembered like NC 2008 than to go for New England.  MN also might stay Dem into the long run, or it might not, but they shouldn't count on it.

Democrats need to make a play for the entire Deep South by the end of the decade.  It's where the college+ white vote is still R leaning and often decisive.  NC looks more promising than FL now, but they really need to make something happen in MS/LA/SC.  Contesting AK/KS/NE is also going to be important, especially in the Senate.  Basically, they need to finish the job of flipping the medium-size ancestrally R cities.  TX is the big question mark for the Dem strategy and I'm genuinely unsure about it just like I'm unsure about MN and Northern New England as R opportunities.  In the event TX doesn't work out, it would have the side effect of unpacking CA which will be good for Dems in mitigating the EC/PV gap.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, the game has kind of changed now.  The best long-term bet for Democrats is nationalizing the white college+ vote.  Hillary's numbers with Hispanic voters and trends in the SW seem to have been a one-time thing, but this could be good for Dems in the EC in the long run.

The goal for Republicans is obviously to flip back the Obama-Trump-Biden states.  After that, it now looks more attractive to try to make a play for NV and maybe NM, and try to make sure AZ 2020 is remembered like NC 2008 than to go for New England.  MN also might stay Dem into the long run, or it might not, but they shouldn't count on it.

Democrats need to make a play for the entire Deep South by the end of the decade.  It's where the college+ white vote is still R leaning and often decisive.  NC looks more promising than FL now, but they really need to make something happen in MS/LA/SC.  Contesting AK/KS/NE is also going to be important, especially in the Senate.  Basically, they need to finish the job of flipping the medium-size ancestrally R cities.  TX is the big question mark for the Dem strategy and I'm genuinely unsure about it just like I'm unsure about MN and Northern New England as R opportunities.  In the event TX doesn't work out, it would have the side effect of unpacking CA which will be good for Dems in mitigating the EC/PV gap.

Dems are highly unlikely to get Hillary numbers with Hispanics (especially in Florida, where many in the Cuban Republican establishment supported Hillary due to the way Trump treated Rubio in the primary) again anytime soon.  Just looking at Biden’s approval numbers among them show that 2020 was likely not an aberration.

[Devils30]

Well, the game has kind of changed now.  The best long-term bet for Democrats is nationalizing the white college+ vote.  Hillary's numbers with Hispanic voters and trends in the SW seem to have been a one-time thing, but this could be good for Dems in the EC in the long run.

The goal for Republicans is obviously to flip back the Obama-Trump-Biden states.  After that, it now looks more attractive to try to make a play for NV and maybe NM, and try to make sure AZ 2020 is remembered like NC 2008 than to go for New England.  MN also might stay Dem into the long run, or it might not, but they shouldn't count on it.

Democrats need to make a play for the entire Deep South by the end of the decade.  It's where the college+ white vote is still R leaning and often decisive.  NC looks more promising than FL now, but they really need to make something happen in MS/LA/SC.  Contesting AK/KS/NE is also going to be important, especially in the Senate.  Basically, they need to finish the job of flipping the medium-size ancestrally R cities.  TX is the big question mark for the Dem strategy and I'm genuinely unsure about it just like I'm unsure about MN and Northern New England as R opportunities.  In the event TX doesn't work out, it would have the side effect of unpacking CA which will be good for Dems in mitigating the EC/PV gap.

College whites in the deep south are much different than in the Midwest. Ds will not have much of a shot to do more than just modest gains that leave them far from statewide wins.

[Skill and Chance]

Well, the game has kind of changed now.  The best long-term bet for Democrats is nationalizing the white college+ vote.  Hillary's numbers with Hispanic voters and trends in the SW seem to have been a one-time thing, but this could be good for Dems in the EC in the long run.

The goal for Republicans is obviously to flip back the Obama-Trump-Biden states.  After that, it now looks more attractive to try to make a play for NV and maybe NM, and try to make sure AZ 2020 is remembered like NC 2008 than to go for New England.  MN also might stay Dem into the long run, or it might not, but they shouldn't count on it.

Democrats need to make a play for the entire Deep South by the end of the decade.  It's where the college+ white vote is still R leaning and often decisive.  NC looks more promising than FL now, but they really need to make something happen in MS/LA/SC.  Contesting AK/KS/NE is also going to be important, especially in the Senate.  Basically, they need to finish the job of flipping the medium-size ancestrally R cities.  TX is the big question mark for the Dem strategy and I'm genuinely unsure about it just like I'm unsure about MN and Northern New England as R opportunities.  In the event TX doesn't work out, it would have the side effect of unpacking CA which will be good for Dems in mitigating the EC/PV gap.

College whites in the deep south are much different than in the Midwest. Ds will not have much of a shot to do more than just modest gains that leave them far from statewide wins.

Well, they already got enough of them in Georgia.  It's better than counting on 2012/16 level Hispanic support coming back to flip states.   

[progressive85]

GA and VA become blue states and TX becomes a purple state with wild swings between the two parties based on what base turns out and how the winds are blowing that cycle... maybe 2036 or 2040?  Then after that a new realignment starts maybe?

[Roll Roons]

GA and VA become blue states and TX becomes a purple state with wild swings between the two parties based on what base turns out and how the winds are blowing that cycle... maybe 2036 or 2040?  Then after that a new realignment starts maybe?

VA already is a blue state. You mean AZ?

[Xing]

Probably never, since we'll probably see at least some other realignment begin in 2024.