Monmouth-VA- tie, youngkin +3, mcauliffe +3

[S019]

It's just one poll, the average still has McAuliffe up narrowly, we'll have to wait and see, also it should be noted this a range, so this poll could very well be McAuliffe+1-2, which is in line enough with recent polls.

[Xing]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

Atlas: 2020 proves that we shouldn't pay attention to polls, since they're useless. Just look at fundamentals and trust your gut!

Also Atlas: Polls show a close race in Virginia. Welp, that settles that, it's a Toss-Up at best, anyone who says otherwise is living in denial.

Why are Atlas D's just completely ignoring the most glaring fact of the current national environment.. Biden's approval is literally at borderline 43%.

What is achieved by ignoring this.

And that doesn't mean that Republicans are going to win a Biden +10 state that is trending away from them. They'll probably do better than they did in 2020, yes, but Democrats failed to flip gubernatorial races in states Trump won by ~10% in 2016 in 2018, and that was during an incredibly good year for them.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems need to start treating this like it's tied.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Man have you guys learned nothing from 2020?
Don't panic, but stop the denial! It's not going to help
McAuliffe any to treat this like a Safe D race

[2016]

It's just one poll, the average still has McAuliffe up narrowly, we'll have to wait and see, also it should be noted this a range, so this poll could very well be McAuliffe+1-2, which is in line enough with recent polls.

One Poll or not if Bidens JA is 43/52 McAuliffe will lose.

Trumps JA in VA 2017 was 40/57 resulting in an 8-Point Northam Win.

The biggest thing will be Bidens JA in the Exit Polls. I am going to watch that closely come Nov 2.

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

Atlas: 2020 proves that we shouldn't pay attention to polls, since they're useless. Just look at fundamentals and trust your gut!

Also Atlas: Polls show a close race in Virginia. Welp, that settles that, it's a Toss-Up at best, anyone who says otherwise is living in denial.

Why are Atlas D's just completely ignoring the most glaring fact of the current national environment.. Biden's approval is literally at borderline 43%.

What is achieved by ignoring this.

Because some posters here like to cherrypick polls and act like others (i.e. the Fox poll from last week) just don't exist. Because it doesn't fit their "dems in disarray" narrative.

Also,

n 2017, you had at least a few polls that indicated Northam would win by more than 5,

Yeah, a few. Only 4 out of 12 of the most recent 2017 polls had Northam 5 or up. That's pretty much the same here - and not only that, not a great comparison since we're getting considerably less polling this time around.

[wbrocks67]

This poll is projecting turnout to be higher than 2020... which is a little strange.

Where do you see that?

It's also worth noting that Monmouth's poll of the 2017 race around this time had the competition at Gillespie +1, but I doubt this little nugget of a caveat will temper the inevitable dooming that is about to happen here.

Simply put, 1 of 20 polls should be outside of MOE, thus you'll always find "bad" polls.

With that said, D were underestimated in 2017, and it might happen again. A difference though, that this time there is an unpopular (D) Pr, instead of unpopular (R).

No, this was a Monmouth specific problem. Their second to last poll in 2017 had Gillepsie +1, and their last poll in 2017 still only had Northam +2.

[wbrocks67]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

[President Johnson]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

[Skill and Chance]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

He was leading in the polls by 6 then.

[KaiserDave]

lol

[wbrocks67]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

He was leading in the polls by 6 then.

I don't get how it's prudent to go back to 2013. Polling was a completely different machine with a total different coalition in VA as well.

If we're supposed to ignore 2017 polling, then 2013 should really be ignored.

The one major thing about 2013 and even 2017 polling is that Democrats base and turned more and more into the White College+ vote, and that's the major thing to look at, since those are the folks who turn out in these elections.

And despite Biden's issues right now, he's still running strongly with that group.

[Spectator]

Lol. People are so easily triggered here it’s not even funny. Youngkin will not win if it’s a high turnout. It’s already looking like turnout will be just as much or higher than 2017. Virginia just does not have the amount of swing voters that Youngkin needs to win over. If McAuliffe was running against a Hogan or Baker clone he’d probably be losing, but he’s not. This will turn out for Republicans how Iowa and Ohio gubernatorial races in 2018 turned out for Democrats: looks close on paper with a favorable climate at their backs only to be swatted back down by the inflexible nature of those states that are trending the other party’s way.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

In 2013, D underperformed by 4 with unpopular D pres.
In 2017, R underperformed by 6 with even more unpopular R pres.

Biden's net approval is about the same as Obama's in 2013.

[wbrocks67]

In 2013, D underperformed by 4 with unpopular D pres.
In 2017, R underperformed by 6 with even more unpopular R pres.

Biden's net approval is about the same as Obama had in 2013.

The unpopular president has no bearing on the polling and how well it held up. Don't see how that's even a factor.

[sting in the rafters]

The fact that most undecideds are nonwhite does favor Ds, however this is a warning sign for Tmac's campaign to keep pushing turnout in NOVA/Tidewater to secure the mansion/state legislature.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

IDK, Pres approvals in the state might effect/indicate, which way the last minutes undeciders break.

[2016]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

VA GOVERNOR EXIT POLL 2013
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf
Obama JA was 46/53

Bidens is worse though, the Country was less polarized and hadn't been through a Pandemic!

[wbrocks67]

The fact that most undecideds are nonwhite does favor Ds, however this is a warning sign for Tmac's campaign to keep pushing turnout in NOVA/Tidewater to secure the mansion/state legislature.

Noticed this too. Black voters were 12% undecided, compared to virtually no Whites. And it doesn't seem like they lean R, either - there's a block who are decided in the HOD race but not Gov race.

Blacks are at 80% for T-Mac but 87% for Ds in HOD. Democrats overall are at 91% for T-Mac but 97% for Ds in HOD races. So I can't imagine those voters won't come home in the end.

[wbrocks67]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

VA GOVERNOR EXIT POLL 2013
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf
Obama JA was 46/53

Bidens is worse though, the Country was less polarized and hadn't been through a Pandemic!

Depends what poll you're looking at. If you'd average all of them out, they probably equal about -3 or -4 in VA right now.

[2016]

In 2013, D underperformed by 4 with unpopular D pres.
In 2017, R underperformed by 6 with even more unpopular R pres.

Biden's net approval is about the same as Obama's in 2013.

That is not true at all! Biden is currently sitting at 43/52 while Obamas JA in VA on E-Day 2013 was 46/53.

Considering that in a "Likely Voter Model" Bidens JA will be even worse I'd McAuliffe is in DEEP TROUBLE!

[2016]

Atlas is again overreacting to one poll. T-Mac even managed to win in 2013, when Obama was close to the lowest point of his presidency in terms of approval rating and when Virginia was less of a blue state than today. T-Mac will win by mid or high single digits.

VA GOVERNOR EXIT POLL 2013
https://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final%5B1%5D.copy.pdf
Obama JA was 46/53

Bidens is worse though, the Country was less polarized and hadn't been through a Pandemic!

Depends what poll you're looking at. If you'd average all of them out, they probably equal about -3 or -4 in VA right now.

Biden will be under Obamas 46 % come Nov 2! Also the Average is scewed because they are using Registered & Likely Voter Models, basically a hybrid Average and Biden will do likely worse in a Likely Voter Model than a Registered Voter Model.

[DrScholl]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

[Chips]

I could see anything from Youngkin+3 to McAuliffe+12 or something like that.

Nothing inside this range would completely shock me.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.