UNH Survey: NH GOP Primary- Trump 43, DeSantis 18, Romney 7...

[WV222]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1450840824976224260

[kwabbit]

I'm a lot more interested in the possibility they also polled Hassan vs. Sununu and just have it embargoed until tomorrow.

DeSantis has a decent base even against Trump. I think people underrate the field vs. Trump. If Trump looks shaky, the base may ditch him. Right now he's their God Emperor, but that's based upon the idea that he is a winner.

[StateBoiler]

I hate commenting on polls 2+ years out because it's just stupid, but the key numbers to take are 43% Trump, 39% not Trump. If Trump is running, it's going to be a small field against him so you're going to see consolidation of the not Trump vote a la everyone that hated Hillary Clinton backing Bernie in 2016 due to lack of other real options.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s margin over DeSantis is +41% among Republicans over age 65, but only +10% among voters under age 35.

DeSantis is the most popular second choice:

DeSantis 38%
Trump 11%
Haley 8%
Cruz 8%
Nome 6%
Pompeo 5%
Romney 3%
Cotton 2%
Pence 2%
Hawley 1%


And finally, DeSantis has a better fav/unfav margin than Trump among Republican voters…

favorable - unfavorable spread among Republicans only:

DeSantis +62%
Trump +54%
Cruz +39%
Noem +30%
Haley +29%
Hawley +26%
Cotton +26%
Pompeo +21%
Pence -6%
Romney -68%