BREAKING! Selzer - National: Trump 40% - Biden 40% TIE

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2021-10/GCNP%20Oct21%20Toplines%20Methodology%20Crosstabs%20v2.pdf


OCT 13-17, 2021
A+
Selzer & Co.
735 LV


Biden 40%
Trump 40%



LET THE UNSKEWING BEGIN!

[SnowLabrador]

I do believe Trump would beat Biden if the election were held today, but this is a lot of undecideds.

[DaleCooper]

One of the things people didn't learn from 2020 is that undecideds seem to be pretty useless. Undecided Republicans and Republican-aligned independents almost universally broke towards Trump and Republicans. I expect the same thing to happen for Biden in 2024 unless the parties change their approach (lol). I can't imagine all these 2020 Biden voters pulling the lever for GOP candidate Ted Nugent in 2024 because they're disturbed by Hunter Biden's laptop. It wouldn't take much of a shift for him to lose, but the notion that Biden's share of the popular vote will decrease by several percent is just a fever dream.

[Inmate Trump]

Biden has low approval.
Covid isn't yet under control.
Afghanistan.
Gas prices.

The best Trump can do is a tie?

Republicans would be much better off going with DeSantis or another candidate for 2024.

[Sir Mohamed]

One of the things people didn't learn from 2020 is that undecideds seem to be pretty useless. Undecided Republicans and Republican-aligned independents almost universally broke towards Trump and Republicans. I expect the same thing to happen for Biden in 2024 unless the parties change their approach (lol). I can't imagine all these 2020 Biden voters pulling the lever for GOP candidate Ted Nugent in 2024 because they're disturbed by Hunter Biden's laptop. It wouldn't take much of a shift for him to lose, but the notion that Biden's share of the popular vote will decrease by several percent is just a fever dream.

Yup, I agree.

Any poll with that amount of undecideds is worthless to begin with. That said, Biden's approvals are kind of worrisome. Good for him is that we're so early in his term and he has a lot of time to turn things around. And even with these approvals, he can still win over an unpopular opponent like Trump.

Would be great for a mod to remove the stupid Breaking in the title.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Instead of polling individual states for Midterms they keep polling GE matchups for Prez, like Biden Approvals lol we are 1500 says out from another Prez Election

[wbrocks67]

I see Trump is still very toxic in the suburbs.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

A poll with Biden’s approval 10 points lower than the average has it at a tie?

A lot can change but at this point biden is the favourite to win

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1450781733251649536

[RFayette]

Based, beautiful results

[Vosem]

This has enough undecideds and is far enough out that it's not really a useful result, though note that an actual Trump tie in the popular vote would actually be a comfortable victory for him with >300 EVs. By universal swing Biden needed a win of 3.85 points to win in 2020.

The actual most interesting thing about this poll is that, although the environment it projects is excellent for Republicans, it still has Biden doing better among likely voters, which suggests that (at least for now) some of the education inversions are here to stay. Gives more credibility to the idea that, at least for approval, there really has been a pretty bad decline with minorities.

[Xing]

Reported for not including the JibJab video.

[S019]

20% undecided=junk