2021-22 College Basketball Thread

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Big East is back, baby!

(Still cheering for Sparty tonight.)

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Don't count wins and losses. Big Ten is still 2nd best conference by a considerable margin and the SEC and ACC have had a much greater fall from preseason forecast.

ACC and Pac-12 are sitting fairly solidly behind WCC in 6th/7th though plenty of time for that to change.

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SU won back-to-back nailbiters against Indiana and Florida State. Bring on Nova!

https://twitter.com/NoEscalators/status/1468402243607179265?s=20

At least you should give Patrick Ewing a beatdown.

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Very impressive. I haven't watched much basketball this season for the first time, but nice to see. Haslam has them at #20 because they ignore pre-season forecasts. Other models have them right at 50 (i.e., bubble team territory). Big XII is tough, but already 2.4 Wins Above Bubble is a nice position to start in even if they go 8-10/9-9.

Marquette is in a hilariously similar WAB position with Shaka at the helm. Except their Haslam rank is just #125 - complete inefficiency. Seems like a heckuva lot more luck involved when the box score says they should've lost not just their 1 point victories over Illinois and @Kansas State but also their multi-possession tournament victories against WVU and Ole Miss. 8-2, should be 4-6 XD UCLA coming to Milwaukee tomorrow to set them straight?

They'll only be favored in 7 of their 20 Big East games.

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Schedule alert: the start time for UCLA-Marquette is listed as 2:30 pm EST in the pick'em list, but the game is actually at 9:30 pm.

Also, I'm changing my pick in tonight's TCU-Texas A&M game to TCU.

Sorry about that. I remember reading and writing down 2:30 PM when I saw it on ESPN.com. Obviously I got it wrong.

ESPN must have had the time wrong on their schedule when you made the list.  I've seen it happen before.

The game was postponed 7 hours due to UCLA travel issues.

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What is up with the bottom tier of the ACC?

Boston College is currently trailing 2-7 Albany (out of the America East) 35-26 at halftime.

Pittsburgh and Boston College, the scummiest teams in the Big East, openly chose to sacrifice the New York recruiting scene and traditional rivalries in order to get 6-8 win seasons in a barely adequate football conference. I didn't think Syracuse would reach their levels of disaster, but Jim Boeheim is down to relying on his two sons and a Villanova outcast to help him sneak into the NIT.

I wish I could explain traditional ACC powers - UVA, NC State and Georgia Tech - falling off the map...has the SEC really wrestled away control with football money and hot coaching hires?

The lack of any even adequate teams has caused the ACC's average rating to fall behind the Pac-12, a conference where 50 percent of the teams are outside the top 100 and even a 4th bid looks extremely precarious following Wazzu falling at the buzzer to South Dakota State.

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The SEC may not be traditional basketball powers but what I am saying is they changed their own fortunes for the future even excluding changes in membership.

Tennessee went out and got Hall of Famer Rick Barnes. Auburn decided Bruce Pearl was worth the baggage in order to finally be competitive. Texas A&M lured Buzz Williams out of the ACC for a massive rebuilding project. Alabama poached the 2nd hottest young coach east of the Mississippi to bring them to the next level. Arkansas got the 2nd hottest young coach west of the Mississippi. The only bigger names were scooped up by Oklahoma and Texas in anticipation of this move.

These schools are prepared to compete with Kentucky (and Florida and LSU) for the long haul.

Mississippi State, Georgia, and Vanderbilt also spent big to bring in big names though those outcomes are TBD/not looking as hot.

This is all thanks to the SEC Network making them kings.


Compare that to the ACC. Steve Forbes was a good hire. I guess Capel was OK but you really can't win at that job. Mike Young is OK but clearly not a long term solution at a program with little interest in the sport. Don't get me started on Chris Mack's underperformance. And the conference has three legends retiring to kick off the decade with hand picked replacements that could never fill their shoes.

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It is exceptionally likely that Racer football is expected to move to the MVFC - it's just a separate application process.
UND was a pretty mediocre program when they made the move, and they are competing quite well now. Though I don't think the same dynamics are as play in Kentucky. It's okay, everyone needs a bottomfeeder that brings basketball legacy.

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The way the ACC is playing, barring a shocker in ACC Conference tournament they are a three bid league come March (Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, though Louisville is squarely on the bubble right now.)

Are you forgetting Miami?  They're 13-3 with losses against Alabama, Dayton, and UCF (nothing terrible there), 5-0 in the ACC, and now have a signature win at Duke.

"If the season ended today," sure. But they are #80 NET, #81 BT, #82 KP (not to mention #100 EH!) even after the win. The two bid forecasting systems peg them at 5% and 27% to make the tournament even with a very stellar resume today.

Ironically, it's 8-6 Virginia Tech that has the third best odds in the ACC despite having a resume of absolutely nothing. Both VT and Wake Forest (cemented by their win over VT) made Lunardi's cut line today. Absurd, but the bubble will clear itself up when someone gets signature wins.

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Just as it appeared Monmouth was set to replace James Madison in the Colonial (at least for football with all sports membership likely to follow), HBCU Gameday is now reporting that Hampton University is now the frontrunner to join the conference.

This occurred amidst Twitter rumors that William & Mary and Elon were looking to return to the Southern Conference because of the increasingly northern focus of the league.

Strong possibility for the league to potentially expand by 2 more but geography unclear. It has shifted away from Fairfield and towards Stony Brook to join Monmouth. Strange 13 team football league unless someone is leaving.

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The way the ACC is playing, barring a shocker in ACC Conference tournament they are a three bid league come March (Duke, North Carolina and Louisville, though Louisville is squarely on the bubble right now.)

Are you forgetting Miami?  They're 13-3 with losses against Alabama, Dayton, and UCF (nothing terrible there), 5-0 in the ACC, and now have a signature win at Duke.

"If the season ended today," sure. But they are #80 NET, #81 BT, #82 KP (not to mention #100 EH!) even after the win. The two bid forecasting systems peg them at 5% and 27% to make the tournament even with a very stellar resume today.

Ironically, it's 8-6 Virginia Tech that has the third best odds in the ACC despite having a resume of absolutely nothing. Both VT and Wake Forest (cemented by their win over VT) made Lunardi's cut line today. Absurd, but the bubble will clear itself up when someone gets signature wins.

How wrong the analytics were!

Virginia Tech's odds have evaporated leaving just three ACC teams over 20% probability (Wake being the third).

Until tonight(?) Miami 27 point domination vs. UNC (Average lead 17.1 points - Season best!) catapults them to #58 in both live rankings. 6-1 with wins against all three tournament teams and only a 1 point loss at FSU, who currently leads Duke. Looking forward to seeing the odds update.

Charlie Moore had a fantastic career at DePaul, but only after transferring to the ACC is he going to lead a team to the NCAA Tournament.

Congrats GA Moderate on the great eye test! A 32 point loss to Alabama tainted the data, but the lrest of the non-conference wasn't exactly pretty either....

And congrats to Jim Larranaga just as I presumed his career was approaching an unflattering end as he went into retirement with a whisper.

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The conference is six western schools and seven Texas schools. There isn't any reason to break-up a finally decent arrangement. There's a chance Seattle ends up in the WCC replacing BYU if Gonzaga doesn't veto it and then the conference can evaluate two other southwestern teams

Southern Utah and Utah Tech are needed for the football conference to have enough teams, so might as well keep them and UVU...no reason to get rid of Grand Canyon to appease them as well considering they have the biggest fanbase in the conference.

California Baptist is a weird fit, but there aren't really other options for them and they usually are a competitive squad.

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Why would Gonzaga care if Seattle were in the league?  Can't really see their worlds overlapping.

Mostly that it's two more wasted conference games against a subpar opponent, which they have no shortage of annually thanks to Portland/Pepperdine/Pacific, sometimes joined by 1-2 others. Lackluster replacement for marquee BYU games when they can just schedule strong OOC instead. Nothing to do with being in the same state - that didn't hit me until now.

I think Seattle could be ok long-term, but not much better than San Diego/Santa Clara likely. SMC and USF might not love the SOS impact either if they are ranked any worse than #130-170.

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What happens to Conference USA when its top members leave?

Its top member historically is Western Kentucky, so they will still be around. UAB has always been good not great and is the only team that will be missed. Old Dominion has never come through in the clutch despite many solid seasons.

North Texas and Middle Tennessee are the biggest noise-makers of the last decade in March, but neither is a spectacular program. The former is a short-term burst of super seniors so I don't think it will be missed that much. MTSU is sticking around and should be ready to battle.

The other six departing schools have virtually no basketball history (Charlotte was best before it joined this hideous conference, and Marshall had one good year thanks to decent coaching).


In place of shedding all this fat, they are loading up with basketball power New Mexico State and recently solid Liberty to join WKU. JSU and SHSU have always been 3rd place teams in worse conferences but could represent improvements as well.

Conference should be much improved with these typical prospective long-term power rankings (Current T-Rank in parentheses)

1. New Mexico State (105) - 25 NCAA appearances (last 2019)
2. Western Kentucky (140) - 23 NCAA appearances (last 2013)
3. Liberty (93) - 5 NCAA appearances (last 2021)

4. Middle Tennessee (108) - 9 NCAA appearances (last 2017)

5. Jacksonville State (122) - 1 NCAA appearance (2017)
6. Sam Houston State (144) - 2 NCAA appearances (last 2010)
7. Louisiana Tech (79) - 5 NCAA appearances (last 1991)

8. UTEP (191) - 17 NCAA appearances (last 2010)

Distant 9. Florida International (261) - 1 NCAA appearance (1995)

The top three should be competitive nearly every year, and MTSU is frequently as well. It's also not difficult to see 5-7 playing in conference tournament championships every so often - LT is already looking like it this year though I expect a quick downturn in the new conference. Lot of parity to like here

Average rank will improve from 174 to 138 under this new alignment. Should remain steadily 12/13th best conference.

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If you are worried about a 10th program, the six conceivable candidates are:

1. Chattanooga - Awesome dual sport program that would push the league ahead of the SoCon. Unfortunately, the exit fee just doubled to $2 million. They are happy where they are.
2. Missouri State - Little historic success. The 10 year plan is finally paying off in both basketball and football after some minor delays. The alumni probably want this most. Unclear if C-USA does but a good compromise candidate.
3. Stephen F. Austin - Bigger name for basketball than football, which is unlikely to drive decision-making, but SHSU is probably more supportive than other in-state rivals tend to be.

4. Kennesaw State - Probably most eager candidate. Atrocious basketball but tremendous football.
5. Eastern Kentucky - Eager but likely to be blocked by WKU. Below par basketball and mediocre football.
6. North Alabama - Not likely to be a candidate for a few years. Atrocious basketball but solid football potential.

Ultra longshots are SWAC schools that get thrown around which would be wholly uncompetitive in basketball (Jackson State/FAMU/NC A&T) or football (Texas Southern) as well as non-regionally sensible candidates like NDSU. I don't think these schools would have any interest.

My money is on Kennesaw State or Missouri State. Too early to tell. SFA would be a good third if they went to divisions, and you'd have 9-10 good basketball teams out of 12.

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Tom Crean with the vintage coach of the year type performance against the numbah one team in the nation. (Coaching the cheerleaders first and foremost since that is his best skill)

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Is Washington State overrated in the Pac 12? Wazzu lost at home to three mid-majors (Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, and New Mexico State).

Incredibly bad luck to lose a lot of close games. Boise State is also a fourth mid-major technically, but exceedingly likely to get a bid (alongside auto-bid favorites NMSU and SDSU). Their worst loss is by six points! And they held the lead for most of the game. Same could be said for three other losses.

They are a top 30 team with the 101st best resume in the country due to some of the worst luck ever seen. Can't finish games (same can be said for Duke and Villanova but that's mostly against elite teams/harder schedule).

If anything they are underrated because people care far more about H2H and resume rather than Margin of Victory and Efficiency

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Is Washington State overrated in the Pac 12? Wazzu lost at home to three mid-majors (Eastern Washington, South Dakota State, and New Mexico State).

Incredibly bad luck to lose a lot of close games. Boise State is also a fourth mid-major technically, but exceedingly likely to get a bid (alongside auto-bid favorites NMSU and SDSU). Their worst loss is by six points! And they held the lead for most of the game. Same could be said for three other losses.

They are a top 30 team with the 101st best resume in the country due to some of the worst luck ever seen. Can't finish games (same can be said for Duke and Villanova but that's mostly against elite teams/harder schedule).

If anything they are underrated because people care far more about H2H and resume rather than Margin of Victory and Efficiency

I don’t consider Boise State and San Diego State mid-majors. Boise State and San Diego State deserve an invitation to the Pac 12 or Big 12.

This is a somewhat valid opinion for San Diego State (though still admittedly a stretch - it's not exactly Gonzaga despite modest success), but any Boise State invite would be based solely on football. Its basketball program has been an 'average' mid-major program at best for no more than a decade. Two times it was gifted one of the last bids in the expanded tournament that didn't previously exist, and it failed to win the opening round game to get into the final field. In fact, the school has never once won an NCAA Tournament game in its seven chances. It only really had a chance in its last two against La Salle and Dayton, and it couldn't even beat those certain mid-majors.

Not even Northwestern would fail to meet such a low standard.

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Uncertainty in the Big East? Georgetown's march to 0-20* continues unabated! Despite controlling most of the first half (of the ugliest basketball game I've seen in some time), once the score hit 49 all, DePaul went on a 26-0 run to send the Hoyas to 0-11.

Georgetown only has two remaining games where is a <10 point underdog: when they host Creighton on Saturday and when they host DePaul for the rematch in two weeks.


*The Xavier game in DC has not been rescheduled yet.

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Iowa can't miss from 3 and leads Maryland 57-41 at the half.

I was ragging on them all day for being last in the Big Ten (conference games) in 3 point shooting, positing that a road loss tonight would put them squarely on the bubble resume-wise. Welp, the next few games should be easy enough to stamp their ticket.

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After today's OT loss, Iowa State is projected to finish 6-12 and last place in the Big XII. In the Bracketology Forecast (playing out the rest of the season), this record would still keep them comfortably in the field - one spot above the last four byes (i.e., 9th from the bottom). Would be some wild record-setting.

And to think the bubble feels a bit stronger at this point than it has at perhaps any point in the 68 team era.

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Virginia Tech really nearly knocked UVA completely out after their long climb back to relevancy, but it's not decisive yet. Kansas State basically did the same to West Virginia even though WV has five Q1 games coming up. And those victors are far from safe themselves.

Four teams will play their most critical remaining game this week that will get them to the win total that puts them in (if all easier games are won and all more difficult games are lost):

Wednesday
Rutgers (vs. Illinois) - Rutgers needs to hold serve in its remaining home games to get to 18-12, which is doable, and this is the most difficult of the three. That would get them to 7 Q1 wins before the Big Ten Tournament starts to more than offset the two brutal losses. A loss here, and they need to win in Bloomington, and the spread will be much bigger there.

Thursday
Creighton (@ DePaul) - Creighton is projected to finish 3-3 but needs to go 4-2 to pencil itself in the First Four. Somehow, DePaul is the 4th most difficult opponent, narrowly behind a home game vs. UConn. Potentially in a spot to finish 3rd place in the Big East if they win here, but efficiency metrics still hate them due to blowout losses to Seton Hall, Butler and Villanova

Saturday
Kansas State (@ Oklahoma State) - Will be far from decisive since the two easier (home) games are not much easier, and the two harder games are a lot harder, but this could get them projected into the First Four

Virginia (@ Miami) - Failing to beat Miami, they could take down Duke a second time at JPJ, but this would probably put the nail in the coffin, barring a loss in the ACC Championship. Too far off the bubble. Need the 3rd Q1 win.

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One of the all-time great Big East regular season games, reminiscent of the 1980s coaching personalities and passionate atmosphere that won't soon be forgotten. Probably the best game since the Villanova-Providence 2018 BET title game. Two incredible programs and two incredible coaches.

I wish they could tie for the Big East title, but they will not be able to because Providence will only play 17 games. They both control their own destiny, but the numbers say that the most likely outcome is that Villanova will beat Providence again when they meet in Philadelphia but lose in Storrs before they meet to hand the title to Providence for the first time in basketball history.

I know the good folks in Connecticut run a proud program, but there is one thing they may enjoy more than winning, and that is rejoicing in Providence's perpetual mediocrity and lack of trophies. The players will fight, but I'm not sure the home crowd will be too sad to give Villanova the chance to knock out Providence one week later.

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Sleeper game between 8th vs. 9th place non-entities in the Big East turns oddly important by virtue of being a blowout. St. John's up 35 on Butler with minutes remaining after only being favored by 8.

Ordinarily no one would bat an eye, but this is going to do wonders for the the Johnnies' efficiency, likely getting in the 60-65 range on KenPom, basically the bottom necessary for an at-large spot (on par with Notre Dame, Belmont, SMU, Miami and Creighton - all among the last 8 in).

I personally find a 2-9 Q1 record to be an utter disgrace, but they will almost certainly surpass Oregon on the cut list, and quite possibly get into the first 10 out. Projected to finish 2-2, but they'll now be slightly favored in their next three games, including a Q1 home game against Xavier, who they just beat on the road.

Sneaking mighty close. Huge game hosting Creighton coming up.

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In spite of historic greatness, the Big XII is really cannibalizing itself with a clear first tier and second tier and few upsets despite everyone being a top 50 team. Might be as few as 5 bids.

After losing to OSU, Kansas State needs to win @ Texas Tech or @ Kansas. Quite possibly both (i.e., win out) and a game in the conference tournament.

After losing by 20 points, Oklahoma definitely needs to win out, starting with @ Texas Tech.

While a loss today was obviously expected, TCU is still projected in if they go 2-4 with an immediate B12 tournament loss. I'm not really seeing it personally, especially if those two wins are WVU. They may have a lot of Q1 wins by virtue of being in this conference, but only Iowa State (1) and LSU are currently in the field. OOC schedule is trash.