2021-22 College Basketball Thread

[Podgy the Bear]

With the win against Auburn, I think that Texas A&M is already in.  They're running a very good win streak with the only recent loss to a Vanderbilt team that has been doing quite well.  The question would be who gets pushed out.

[NewYorkExpress]

With the win against Auburn, I think that Texas A&M is already in.  They're running a very good win streak with the only recent loss to a Vanderbilt team that has been doing quite well.  The question would be who gets pushed out.

Michigan, if they weren't already out. Otherwise, probably SMU.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the win against Auburn, I think that Texas A&M is already in.  They're running a very good win streak with the only recent loss to a Vanderbilt team that has been doing quite well.  The question would be who gets pushed out.

That's true, but the committee (supposedly) no longer considers recent results as being any more important than the season as a whole; and even with the win, their resume is still very bubbly.  I think they're one of several teams battling for the last four at-large bids: A&M, Michigan, Notre Dame, SMU, Dayton, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, VCU.  Some of those are alerady done but others (including A&M) still have opportunities to impress the committee. I think a win tomorrow would seal a bid for them; they may still get in with a loss, but it will depend on what the other contenders do.

ETA: And Rutgers.  I could also have mentioned Xavier and Wake Forest but I think they're already out.

[7,052,770]

Here's a wild one for you...

Mississippi State could rise from the deadest of the dead to get back on the bubble IF they beat Tennessee tomorrow and follow it up with a win over Kentucky Saturday. That would presumably get the NET into the 40s and 2 more Q1 wins.

(Not going to happen, obviously. Really just want to comment on how strange it is that we can be so mediocre all year without it ever really hurting our NET ranking.)

Unsurprisingly, it didn't happen. Howland likely done at MSU.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Several underdogs hanging close to heavy favorites: Vandy-Kentucky, Penn State-Purdue, Colorado-Arizona.  On the other side of the coin, Memphis leads UCF 26-5.

[Greedo punched first]

Long Beach State defeats UC Santa Barbara 67-64 on a buzzer beater by Jadon Jones with one second left.

[GeorgiaModerate]

VCU's bubble pops, as did St. Bonaventure's earlier.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech leads North Carolina by 17 in the second half.

[DINGO Joe]

North Texas loses in the CUSA semifinals to Louisiana Tech, 42-36.  (Yes, that's the final score; it was 21-13 at halftime.)  North Texas has been mentioned by some prognosticators as a possible at-large team, but it ain't gonna happen.

As we discussed a few pages back, their loss at UTEP wiped them off of the at-large board. 

[DINGO Joe]

If A&M and SMU both get in to the tourney, then the Southwest Conference will have 8 of their 9 teams in the tourney,  Only poor Rice failed to get in.

[Greedo punched first]

Wyoming loses and probably won’t get an at-large bid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oklahoma comes up just short against Texas Tech, popping their bubble.  Virginia Tech clobbered North Carolina and is now safely in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Saturday's bubble games:

Texas A&M vs Arkansas - A&M is probably in with a win.  A loss would have them sweating on Sunday.

Dayton vs Richmond - Dayton must win to stay on the bubble.

SMU vs Memphis - SMU: see Dayton.


Potential bid thieves still alive:

A-10: Saint Louis (vs Davidson) and Richmond (vs Dayton)

AAC: Tulane (vs Houston)

[NewYorkExpress]

Missouri fires Cuonzo Martin.

My guesses as to the shortlist for the next head coach at Missouri:

Murray State Head Coach Matt McMahon
North Texas Head Coach Grant McCasland
San Francisco Head Coach Todd Golden
Texas State Head Coach Terrance Johnson

[DINGO Joe]

Who gets the automatic bid in the Big West? Maybe Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, Hawaii, or UC Irvine? What about the NEC and America East?

Here's Ken Pomeroy's calculations for the Big West tourney.  Looks wide open.  He does these for every conference on his Twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1500446093389156353

Yeah, that's the tightest one of all the tourneys he's posted.  Second tightest was the Sun Belt which also had 6 teams that could reasonably win it, but in that case, one of the "unreasonable" teams is in the finals in ULL.

On the flip side, the most lopsided tourney is the America East with Vermont at 80.4% to win it.  New Hampshire is second at 6.6%.

Vermont won it's three tourney games by 39,32 and 39 points.  Perhaps they were a bit underrated. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Who gets the automatic bid in the Big West? Maybe Long Beach State, Cal State Fullerton, Hawaii, or UC Irvine? What about the NEC and America East?

Here's Ken Pomeroy's calculations for the Big West tourney.  Looks wide open.  He does these for every conference on his Twitter feed.

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1500446093389156353

Yeah, that's the tightest one of all the tourneys he's posted.  Second tightest was the Sun Belt which also had 6 teams that could reasonably win it, but in that case, one of the "unreasonable" teams is in the finals in ULL.

On the flip side, the most lopsided tourney is the America East with Vermont at 80.4% to win it.  New Hampshire is second at 6.6%.

Vermont won it's three tourney games by 39,32 and 39 points.  Perhaps they were a bit underrated. 

Vermont is not a team that anyone will want to face in the first round.

On another note, a Texas A&M player just threw up a wild shot that bounced off the top of the backboard and through the hoop.  Don't think I've ever seen that one before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1502733060600696842

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa just hit a bank-shot 30-footer with 1 second left to take the lead, and barring a miracle will beat Indiana.

Elsewhere, Texas A&M is destroying Arkansas, and IMO locks up a bid.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Richmond rallies from 15 down to beat Dayton, ending the latter's faint at-large hopes.  The Spiders are the last remaining potential bid thief, and will play Davidson for the A-10 championship tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tennessee knocks off Kentucky.  Everyone who had Tennessee vs. Texas A&M in the SEC final, raise your hand.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

About to take a stab at Bracketology.  I haven't paid as close of attention to the projections as I do most years, but I still want to do my own.  I'll also do a NIT Bracketology because my team is sitting on the NIT bubble (which actually is easily our best season in half a decade).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Memphis very likely pops SMU's bubble, 70-63, and will play Houston for the AAC championship tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia Tech is about to win the ACC championship over Duke.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ER's 2022 Bracketology:

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Tennessee
3 Seeds: Villanova, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4 Seeds: UCLA, Arkansas, Iowa, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Illinois, UConn, Texas, Ohio State
6 Seeds: San Diego State, Alabama, Saint Mary's, LSU
7 Seeds: Murray State, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Providence, Loyola-Chicago, North Carolina, San Francisco
9 Seeds: Memphis, USC, TCU, Marquette
10 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Davidson
11 Seeds: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
12 Seeds: Michigan/Xavier, Rutgers/Texas A&M, UAB, South Dakota State
13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
14 Seeds: Colgate, Akron, Longwood, Montana State
15 Seeds: Delaware, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State, Long Beach State
16 Seeds: Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Wright State/Bryant, Texas Southern/Southeastern Louisiana

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
Next Four Out: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU


NIT Bracketology:
1 Seeds: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
2 Seeds: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU
3 Seeds: North Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon, Saint Louis
4 Seeds: Belmont, Colorado, Virginia, South Carolina
5 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, Utah State, Missouri State
6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
7 Seeds: Iona, Towson, Toledo, Northern Iowa
8 Seeds: Texas State, Nicholls, Cleveland State, Alcorn State

Last Four In: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
First Four Out: Saint John's, Fresno State, UCF, Louisiana Tech

*Subject to potential removal from the projected field should New Mexico State, Long Beach State, and/or Princeton lose their conference championship games and require auto-bids to the NIT.

[Greedo punched first]

ER's 2022 Bracketology:

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Tennessee
3 Seeds: Villanova, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4 Seeds: UCLA, Arkansas, Iowa, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Illinois, UConn, Texas, Ohio State
6 Seeds: San Diego State, Alabama, Saint Mary's, LSU
7 Seeds: Murray State, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Providence, Loyola-Chicago, North Carolina, San Francisco
9 Seeds: Memphis, USC, TCU, Marquette
10 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Davidson
11 Seeds: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
12 Seeds: Michigan/Xavier, Rutgers/Texas A&M, UAB, South Dakota State
13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
14 Seeds: Colgate, Akron, Longwood, Montana State
15 Seeds: Delaware, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State, Long Beach State
16 Seeds: Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Wright State/Bryant, Texas Southern/Southeastern Louisiana

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
Next Four Out: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU


NIT Bracketology:
1 Seeds: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
2 Seeds: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU
3 Seeds: North Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon, Saint Louis
4 Seeds: Belmont, Colorado, Virginia, South Carolina
5 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, Utah State, Missouri State
6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
7 Seeds: Iona, Towson, Toledo, Northern Iowa
8 Seeds: Texas State, Nicholls, Cleveland State, Alcorn State

Last Four In: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
First Four Out: Saint John's, Fresno State, UCF, Louisiana Tech

*Subject to potential removal from the projected field should New Mexico State, Long Beach State, and/or Princeton lose their conference championship games and require auto-bids to the NIT.

San Diego State with a higher seed than USC? I find that hard to believe. The highest ranked team San Diego State beat was Colorado State when it was #20. USC also beat San Diego State this season.

[Podgy the Bear]

ERs comprehensive projections look pretty good in real time:

--The number 1 seeds look to be correct--Duke could have been one of them.  But Baylor will get the final spot.
--Tennessee has had a great run and pushed themselves into a number 2 slot.
--LSU getting rid of Will Wade and immediately naming the interim coach should have little effect on where they land in the NCAAT.
--Not sure where Alabama lands.    They've had some big wins, but they have faded in the home stretch, and the early exit in the SECT won't help.