Rate Donald Trump's 2024 general election chances

[Chips]

In between 2016 and 2020. Trump shocked the world once and just because he couldn't do it again in 2020 doesn't mean he can't come back in 2024. Just ask Cleveland.

[SN2903]

Better than both. By 2024 I think Biden's approval ratings may very well be in the 30s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is losing in FL

[Del Tachi]

Paradoxically, I'd say Trump had worse odds in 2016 than he had in 2020 FWIW

You are so so smart. I was scrolling through this thread internally screaming that this is the default consensus until you came along. Like, no one thought he had a prayer in 2016, and he was an incumbent as a slight underdog in a tight race in 2020 despite all the goings on.

Yeah, the misunderstanding inherent in OP's question is that the observed outcome of a random event is necessarily equal to its expected value and that the "true probability" of alternative outcomes behaves in such a way that it consistently falls away from the singular one that is observed.  It's akin to thinking, after rolling a 3 on a die, that the numbers 2 or 4 were more likely to come up than 1 or 6 on the same throw, lol 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't gonna be Prez ever, and even if he dies no one is gonna listen to him, Rs need to understand what a LAME DUCK IS, HE HAS NO POWER, HE CANT RUN FOR REELECTION AGAIN

There aren't gonna be any tax cuts for rich in a Pandemic

[THG]

It depends on whether he runs a smart and focused campaign, or whether he runs a horrendous mess of a campaign.

And right now there is absolutely no indication that he’s learnt from his mistakes. However, Biden’s unpopularity does mean that it is better than 2020 at the least, but not better than 2016.

[Roll Roons]

It depends on whether he runs a smart and focused campaign, or whether he runs a horrendous mess of a campaign.

We all know it'll be the second one.

[THG]

It depends on whether he runs a smart and focused campaign, or whether he runs a horrendous mess of a campaign.

We all know it'll be the second one.

I fully agree, and I stated as such in the post you’re replying to.

The only silver lining for Mr. Trump is Biden and Harris’s unpopularity.

[Vice President Christian Man]

I think 1/6 will complicate things with moderates but it will have to do with Biden's approval ratings. If things continue to go South I think he can pull it off, but a lot can change (for better or worse) in 3 years.

[brucejoel99]

Unless Biden ends up truly proving to be a "Jimmy Carter 2.0," Trump will face a steeper uphill battle than ever before.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1450551289771958276

[MATTROSE94]

I think 1/6 will complicate things with moderates but it will have to do with Biden's approval ratings. If things continue to go South I think he can pull it off, but a lot can change (for better or worse) in 3 years.

I am still thinking that Donald Trump will do a lot better in 2024 even with the January 6 stuff. I would say that the map against Joe Biden will be 294-244 in favor of Donald Trump and the map against Kamala Harris will be 345-193 in favor of Donald Trump. Under both scenarios, I feel that Donald Trump will win the popular vote perhaps by a 1984-style margin due to historically high levels of support for a Republican nominee by Hispanics, rural voters, and working class voters from inner city areas.