Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

It would also mess with the electoral tradition of the two ridings, which isn't an iron rule that shall never be broken, but it's better to leave it intact. SJE isn't naturally that much more of an NDP seat than SJS-MP (infact I think SJE is higher-income, which usually means less NDP support, but not in this case because of the Jack Harris machine dating back to the 80s).

[DL]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

Traditions are made to be broken! I just feel there would be more of a "community of interest" if there was an inner city St. John's seat plus a donut like seat that was more St. John's suburbs, exurbs and some of rural Avalon.

[Krago]

The Ontario Commission proposals were published on August 6.

Or so says the website: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/on/index_e.aspx

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

Traditions are made to be broken! I just feel there would be more of a "community of interest" if there was an inner city St. John's seat plus a donut like seat that was more St. John's suburbs, exurbs and some of rural Avalon.

I think any donut riding would look very ugly.

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

It would also mess with the electoral tradition of the two ridings, which isn't an iron rule that shall never be broken, but it's better to leave it intact. SJE isn't naturally that much more of an NDP seat than SJS-MP (infact I think SJE is higher-income, which usually means less NDP support, but not in this case because of the Jack Harris machine dating back to the 80s).

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

The Ontario Commission proposals were published on August 6.

Or so says the website: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/on/index_e.aspx

You had me all excited for a moment!

[toaster]

Hopefully they will be posted soon.  I guess it was an automated message posted on that site?  It says it was Published on August 6th.. still nowhere to be found.

As we wait, here are a few things for Ontario I hope get adjusted/cleaned up:

All of Simcoe.. Simcoe North / Grey ..  Midland/Penetag have more in common and are geographically closer to Wasaga and the other communities along the Georgian Bay than they are with Orillia and areas east of those lakes.

Etobicoke: Cross that sacred creek so that Etobicoke Lakeshore doesn't remain so large..  remember what gets decided here applies to all three levels of govt, which means that people in these huge (population) districts get 1 councillor per 141k people even at the municipal level (Toronto). The condo communities in Humber Bay/Park Lawn have more in common with South Swansea and should be in the same district, despite a bridge connecting them.

North: Only 2 ridings in the North West, maybe a third that crosses over to some parts of Algoma (or one large Far North riding for the far north east+west combined).  These small (in terms of population) ridings in the North West cause larger ridings in the North East..  putting the Indigenous people of the James Bay coast in a 100k+ riding, while people in the urban city of Thunder Bay are in small ridings at 80k. Not equitable.

[Krago]

The word on the street is that new Ontario maps will come out on Monday, August 22.

Just when I start my week at the cottage. 🙄

[DL]

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

Are you sure about that? St. John's Centre looks to me to be split between St. John's East and St. John's South-Mt Pearl

[Hatman 🍁]

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

Are you sure about that? St. John's Centre looks to me to be split between St. John's East and St. John's South-Mt Pearl

There is a grand total of 2 polls in St. John's East.

[adma]

Hard copy version for Ontario came with my daily newspaper this morning.

[MaxQue]

Hard copy version for Ontario came with my daily newspaper this morning.

And the website says it will be online tomorrow.

[Krago]

Hard copy version for Ontario came with my daily newspaper this morning.

And the website says it will be online tomorrow.

A friend in Dundas just went out and purchased a Toronto Star.

He didn’t believe me when I told him that Zorra Township was being split among three ridings.

[Philly D.]

HERE IT IS:

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/on/prop/on-prop_e.pdf

They certainly took voter equality to heart more than the last Commission (not that it would have been difficult.) Looks like we were right about the big ideas (Toronto, Northern Ontario -1, GGH ~ +3), although not necessarily the details. Raise your hands if you had Oshawa within four different ridings, all while Clarington is split in three rather than two.

They somehow managed to keep three Don Valley ridings and Scarborough Centre. I suppose  crossing Victoria Park north of the 401 makes sense because of the Armenian COI.

YSW and E-L were the two closest ridings to the quota in Toronto and yet they changed one and made the other unrecognizable. We wondered whether the Humber River would be crossed. We certainly didn't wonder whether more than one riding would span it into Etobicoke.

Elsewhere, they also changed Haldimand-Norfolk, the closest riding to the quota tout court. In fact only Ottawa S, Kingston, Quinte, Barrie-Innisfil and Ajax seem unchanged.

Kiiwetinoong(I was right about that one!) is awfully small at -68.8% though. It's smaller than the PEI ridings!!! It seems I was also right about Renfrew going into the City of Ottawa. We were all right about North Glengarry going into Stormont.

Like the Quebec proposal, there are a fair number of municipalities randomly being split or separated from their counties (Cavan-Monaghan, South Frontenac, Grimsby(!)) Gananoque-Brockville-Prescott is a real head-scratcher (Leeds-Grenville county is split). Elgin-Middlesex-Thames is a dumpster fire of a riding. It doesn't even contain St. Thomas and I think this means that going from Aylmer to anywhere else in the riding requires exiting it, which is all the more surprising given the Chair is from London.

"South Huron Shores" is an atrocious name for a Canadian riding (yielding "Rives-Huron-Sud".) I also question the suitability of "Mayfield West" and "Grimsby Lakeshore".

"Simcoe" has completely disappeared as a toponym, as have "St. Paul's", "Willowdale", "Streetsville" and "Algoma"(!!) The latter could easily name the Sault Ste. Marie riding, which mysteriously contains Chapleau although the Commission said it was mindful of Francophone COIs.

There are a few more Aboriginal names. This suggests that Elections Canada pushed for this at the briefings they give to Commissioners and staff early on which explain their roles.

The number of public hearings is stunningly small. Just 11 in-person ones, and all beginning at 6:30PM.

[Krago]

The number of public hearings is stunningly small. Just 11 in-person ones, and all beginning at 6:30PM.

No hearings in Hamilton, Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge or Guelph.

Or Windsor.

[MaxQue]

However, I think they are the only ones to have a Saturday online meeting.

[Hatman 🍁]

I plan on writing a rather lengthy submission. I have many issues with the map.

[DL]

How much have the boundaries typically changed between the first proposal by the commission and the final map after all the hearings and consultations? As i recall in 2013/2014 there were some pretty big changes in some provinces

[Hatman 🍁]

From what I can remember, commissions usually make outrageous maps on their first proposal, and then curb their enthusiasm after public outcry.

[Philly D.]

With election-atlas.ca and prior posts, we can almost project the 2021 results on this map (anything in bold is a correction):

New CON seats:
- Vernon-Lake Country
- Airdrie-Chestermere
- Edmonton-Gateway
- Georgetown-Milton East (close, but there isn't actually all that much Milton in it and there is all of Georgetown)
- Lake Simcoe-Uxbridge

CON gains from LIB:
- Calgary Skyview
- Kenora-Thunder Bay-Rainy River (and by a hefty chunk at that)
- Sault Ste. Marie
- Kitchener South-North Dumfries (in part because of Mike Morrice-induced vote-splitting)
- Niagara South

CON gain from NDP: Edmonton-Griesbach

CON disappearances: Saskatoon West and Kenora

New NDP seats: Kiiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk and Saskatoon Centre

NDP gains from LIB:
- Vancouver-Granville
- Manitoulin-Nickel Belt
- Windsor-Tecumseh

NDP disappearance: Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing

BQ gains from LIB: Gaspésie and Châteauguay. They'll hold the former if they can make it match the administrative region exactly (see my proposal).

BQ disappearance: Avignon-Mitis-Matane-...

New BQ seat: Les Pays-d'En-Haut

LIB disappearance: Scarborough-Agincourt, although John McKay will probably draw the short end of the nomination stick.

New LIB seats: Calgary McKnight and Brampton-Mayfield West

LIB gains from CON: Acadian Shore-Shelburne and King-Vaughan

Which yields: LIB 152 (-7) CON 126 (+7) BQ 34 (+2) NDP 28 (+3) GRN 2 IND 1

Suddenly the discrepancy between getting the most seats and losing the popular vote isn't as bad...

In SW Ontario, I gave Kitchener-Conestoga to the Liberals although it's close enough that it probably boils down to the advance and special votes.

And one last thing: the new York Centre is tailor-made for Roman Baber.

[toaster]

Very exciting!

Kiwetinoong-Mushkegowuk --> So small, but I do understand keeping the Indigenous communities together.  At least this way the entire North is below quotient. Before this, the urban (and white) city of Kenora had it "good" by being in a special consideration riding (below quotient) without having any business being given that special consideration.  So, I tend to agree with this.

Cochrane - Timmins - Temiskaming --> This is a great riding. Francophone communities of interest together, these communities have much more in common than they did with the previous ones they were grouped with (James Bay coast, Manitoulin Island). I would move Hornepayne to the Sault riding (and name it Algoma).  Oddly, Hornepayne is grouped in with Timmins at the Far north east for its Public Health (Porcupine), but for everything else, it grouped in with Algoma

Sault Ste Marie --> Add Hornepayne, rename Algoma. Not sure what to do with Chapleau though.

Thunder Bay --> Splitting it in two, it is a little unique in the sense it was traditionally 2 unique villages, right?  Is that why they don't make an urban Thunder Bay Riding, and then have the outer suburbs be one riding with the rest of the vast rural North West? In Sudbury (or Guelph), they chose to make the one urban riding, and have the outer portions grouped in with the more rural areas surrounding it.

Collingwood - Blue Mountains --> I like the name, and don't mind that it crosses the Simcoe / Grey boundary.  In fact, these areas should really be in one county as they are essentially becoming 1 community.

Penetanguishene - Couchiohing --> That's a mouthful. I don't like the grouping of Orillia (and areas east of there) with the MIdland/Penetang communities along Georgian Bay, but I don't see any good alternatives.

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Brampton North --> Renamed from East? Weird, the region of Peel uses East - West on a diagonal given its location slanted parallel with Lake Ontario. Everyone in Brampton considers this to be the Eastern part of Brampton, even if technically it is the Northern most position.

Brampton Chinguacousy --> I get the change to Indigenous names, but Springdale I think fits better here.

Humber --> Interesting riding.  We know they needed to cross the Humber river because Etobicoke is too populated for only 3 ridings, but this is a weird place to do it. The demos are very different, ultra rich Kingsway area of Etobicoke, and the old York/Weston areas.

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Taiaiako'n - High Park --> Parkdale is a meaningful name to what has always been a working class (and lower SES) community, not sure replacing that name does much good. If an indigenous name needs to be included here, then maybe remove the High Park name and just name it Parkdale - Taiaiako'n. The Northern Boundary change is odd to me, although I think it only affects a few dwellings, but I think the railway is a more natural buffer between communities.


 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry to be the annoying nagging guy, but is there any chance Ridingbuilder can add population data from previous censuses? That would be really helpful to me.

[adma]

Very exciting!

Sault Ste Marie --> Add Hornepayne, rename Algoma. Not sure what to do with Chapleau though.

Or, Sault-Algoma?

Collingwood - Blue Mountains --> I like the name, and don't mind that it crosses the Simcoe / Grey boundary.  In fact, these areas should really be in one county as they are essentially becoming 1 community.

That'd only be the case if Collingwood actually *annexed* Blue Mountains, the way that Quinte West annexed Murray Twp.  Otherwise, if it were all about "essentially 1 community", Fulton & DeKalb counties in Georgia might as well amalgamate.

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield West seems to be the budding catchall for *all* of that S Caledon suburban-spillover zone, of which Southfields is only one element.

Brampton Chinguacousy --> I get the change to Indigenous names, but Springdale I think fits better here.

Actually, "Chinguacousy" bears the name of the former township which surrounded Brampton until regionalization in 1973--indeed, Bramalea Civic Centre originally served as municipal offices for Chinguacousy Township (within which the "new town" of Bramalea was built in the 60s and 70s)

Humber --> Interesting riding.  We know they needed to cross the Humber river because Etobicoke is too populated for only 3 ridings, but this is a weird place to do it. The demos are very different, ultra rich Kingsway area of Etobicoke, and the old York/Weston areas.

Arguably no more "weird" a mix than that in the now-former St Paul's riding.  (And one presumes, perfect for Michael Ford to run for provincial re-election next time)

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Though said "parts other than" are already part of the community council.  (And as recently as the 90s, the boundaries of York West bled the *other* way, *into* Etobicoke)

Taiaiako'n - High Park --> Parkdale is a meaningful name to what has always been a working class (and lower SES) community, not sure replacing that name does much good. If an indigenous name needs to be included here, then maybe remove the High Park name and just name it Parkdale - Taiaiako'n. The Northern Boundary change is odd to me, although I think it only affects a few dwellings, but I think the railway is a more natural buffer between communities.

Yeah, in this case, I agree that the indigenous name change feels a bit arbitrary, and "Parkdale" is a name with a rich history.  As for the boundary change, much of what lies S of St Clair has already been "hipster Junction" gentrifying, so at *this* point there might be more of a community of interest w/what lies south...


 

[toaster]

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Though said "parts other than" are already part of the community council.  (And as recently as the 90s, the boundaries of York West bled the *other* way, *into* Etobicoke)

Well, it's the Etobicoke York Community council (i.e., Etobicoke and York Community council) this part of the city being the York part of that council, not the Etobicoke part.

[adma]

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Though said "parts other than" are already part of the community council.  (And as recently as the 90s, the boundaries of York West bled the *other* way, *into* Etobicoke)

Well, it's the Etobicoke York Community council (i.e., Etobicoke and York Community council) this part of the city being the York part of that council, not the Etobicoke part.

Or up here, the parts that were formerly North York (which until the 1920s was *all* part of York Twp).  Still, the community council element has enabled a cross-Humber common political identity to "sink in", rightly or wrongly.  And in this case, Etobicoke still wields a dominant identity...

[MaxQue]

Provincially (excluding the North), it would mean.

PC gain of 3 new seats (in Brampton, Simcoe and Georgetown/Milton), but lose the seat abolished in Scarborough.
Lib gain over NDP in St. Clair-Mount Pleasant
PC gain NDP in Black Creek (NDP falls to 3rd)

So, PC+3, NDP -2, Lib +1