GOP 2022 Prospects Had Trump Been Convicted in the Senate?

[RFayette]

It seems that in general people agree that the GOP has decent-to-great prospects in the 2022 midterms right now, though obviously a lot can happen between now and next November.  One counterfactual I wonder about is:  how would the GOP be doing had Trump been convicted in the Senate?  This seems like it very well could have happened had McConnell supported his conviction.

I am conflicted on this:  on one hand, we see that Trump's continuing presence probably hurt the GOP in the California recall.  On the other hand, the GOP convicting Trump could lead to severely depressed Republican turnout.  In my view, this latter factor would predominate and the GOP would have worse prospects in 2022 than we see right now.  (That being said, I think a stronger case can be made that the GOP would have better 2024 prospects had Trump been convicted and thus ineligible to run.  But 2022 is closer and I think a clearer question to ask for hypothetical at this point.)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The donor class will never let the GOP "do the right thing" if it ever comes at the expense a reduced performance in an election cycle meaning a "reduced ROI" on their massive "investment" in the party. So a President can literally put the Constitution through a cheese grater and they would still condone it.

That is ultimately why the establishment types have not acted in greater concert to dismantle Trump (assuming they even can) because their donors thing they more likely to win with Trump than without him. Basically, until Trump cost them dearly as in GA a couple of more times, he will keep siphoning off money and keep discouraging Republicans from voting.

Its also why you had a chorus of push back against Trump's comments about not voting in 2022 and 2024, because that spooks the money people and their mouthpieces.

[NewYorkExpress]

The GOP base is so deeply devoted to Trump, that he been convicted and barred from running again like he should have been, most Republicans would have either refused to vote, or there would have immediately been a violent civilian powered coup backed by Trump, and he'd have been sworn in again anyways, with most members of Congress in both houses being killed in the process.

[MATTROSE94]

The Republican Party would have probably collapsed in a scenario where Donald Trump was impeached for the January 6 insurrection, so the Republicans probably would have done poorly overall in the 2022 midterm elections.

[MATTROSE94]

The GOP base is so deeply devoted to Trump, that he been convicted and barred from running again like he should have been, most Republicans would have either refused to vote, or there would have immediately been a violent civilian powered coup backed by Trump, and he'd have been sworn in again anyways, with most members of Congress in both houses being killed in the process.

I agree to a point. I am also thinking that even if he was impeached, Donald Trump would have found a way to get back in as President in 2024 by running unpledged elector slates in the 7 states he contested in 2020.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depends on how they did it . The best way to have done it was to have 14-15 republicans who aren’t up till 2026 vote to impeach then Romney Murk and Toomey from earlier classes would make them reach that 17 number . Doing this would provide cover for most of the republicans in 2022 and 2024 and by 2026 people would forget about it


Another way would be to cancel primaries for any Republican who voted to impeach but that would be a pretty extreme measure that would be terrible as well.