Nate Cohn's 2028 model

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1448675507969708039

[Agonized-Statism]

Which doesn't tell us much because trends don't trend forever, but interesting.

[Skill and Chance]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

[Mr.Phips]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

[Devils30]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

The RGV is really more like SW Virginia circa 2004 in terms of statewide impact. You can give Rs a 30% swing there on top of 2020 and it only brings Trump's statewide margin to around 7.3% or so. If Collin, Denton, Williamson start voting 57-42 Dem the GOP is in trouble no matter what happens in the RGV.

[If my soul was made of stone]

The RGV is really more like SW Virginia circa 2004 in terms of statewide impact. You can give Rs a 30% swing there on top of 2020 and it only brings Trump's statewide margin to around 7.3% or so. If Collin, Denton, Williamson start voting 57-42 Dem the GOP is in trouble no matter what happens in the RGV.

The rural counties in the region will probably retain a higher Dem floor than their whiter environs for a while, as Hispanic counties that are already heavily Republican (Bee, Hudspeth, Uvalde) typically do over whiter rurals, and future swings will probably be much more muted in the more urban counties (Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb) in keeping with the typical trends of the era.

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

Beto O'Rourke won Tarrant by over twice Biden's margin and still lost the state, so I'm not sure what this means.

[Figueira]

Calling this a "model" is a bit silly. This is something that any one of us could have done using basic arithmetic.

And yeah, this just shows why Democrats should keep focusing on the Rust Belt. Texas would be nice, but (a) it's far from guaranteed in the immediate term, and (b) it still only has two Senators.

[Skill and Chance]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

The RGV is really more like SW Virginia circa 2004 in terms of statewide impact. You can give Rs a 30% swing there on top of 2020 and it only brings Trump's statewide margin to around 7.3% or so. If Collin, Denton, Williamson start voting 57-42 Dem the GOP is in trouble no matter what happens in the RGV.

Yes, I-35 looks great, but what happens when that RGV trend hits Houston?  Is the national Dem base ready to shut up about climate change for a generation as the price of having any federal power?  Because that's where this is going if they're counting on Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

The RGV is really more like SW Virginia circa 2004 in terms of statewide impact. You can give Rs a 30% swing there on top of 2020 and it only brings Trump's statewide margin to around 7.3% or so. If Collin, Denton, Williamson start voting 57-42 Dem the GOP is in trouble no matter what happens in the RGV.

Virginia trends arent really comparable to Texas though. This is how Virginia trended from 1996 to 2008

Virginia:

1996: 10.5 points more Republican than the nation a whole
2000: 8.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2004: 5.8 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2008: 0.9 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

Texas on the other hand had a huge Democratic trend from 2012 to 2016 but other than that it really hasnt really trended D much at all. In the past 4 years Texas went from being 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole to 10 points which isnt much.

[President Johnson]

Trends aren't linear in the same direction in all 50 states. That's why this means absolutely nothing. It doesn't even consider first time voters, dying people and naturalized citizens starting to vote. Or voter registration laws.

[Skill and Chance]

This still looks pretty alarming for Democrats in that absolutely everything is riding on Texas to get even close in the EC. 

And relying on Texas is going to be very dicey.  The trends in the RGV (they are likely not a fluke when looking at Biden’s approval numbers there) and the fact that Biden still couldn’t get within five points there even when winning Tarrant, which was supposed to be the bellwether, are going to make winning there easier said than done for Dems.

The RGV is really more like SW Virginia circa 2004 in terms of statewide impact. You can give Rs a 30% swing there on top of 2020 and it only brings Trump's statewide margin to around 7.3% or so. If Collin, Denton, Williamson start voting 57-42 Dem the GOP is in trouble no matter what happens in the RGV.

Virginia trends arent really comparable to Texas though. This is how Virginia trended from 1996 to 2008

Virginia:

1996: 10.5 points more Republican than the nation a whole
2000: 8.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2004: 5.8 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
2008: 0.9 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

Texas on the other hand had a huge Democratic trend from 2012 to 2016 but other than that it really hasnt really trended D much at all. In the past 4 years Texas went from being 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole to 10 points which isnt much.

Yes, Texas needed to repeat or nearly repeat the 2012-16 trend for Dems to get excited about it.  If it had been Trump +1.5 in 2020, this would be a whole different conversation.

[Xing]

Yeah, I'm not taking any "model" that has Utah going Democratic while Nevada goes Republican seriously. If we were to take 2008-2012 trends as the model for 2016, Utah would've been a nearly 70-point win for Trump.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1448675507969708039

This is pretty much the map many of us are expecting, minus Utah.  That's not going blue.  And probably minus Pennsylvania, Trump was just a good fit there.

This is why Presidential elections are so close.  There are only a few close states trending in either direction and they tend to have A LOT of electoral votes (Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina).