Trafalgar: youngkin +1

[Person Man]

Sticking with McAuliffe +2, but Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020. A Youngkin upset is not out of the question.

Agreed, but important to note their 2020 errors were all in Trump's favor.

So this is probably is a 95th percentile performance.

[Person Man]

If even Trafalgar only has Youngkin+1 and needs Biden-18 to get that, that tells you all you need to know about where this race is (i.e Likely D).

Trafalgar (A-) is great pollster with a much low partisan bias than any other pollsters that has released results for Virginia.  They did well in 2020.  They only missed swing states by margins that were within their margin of error.  Right before the election, they had polls in PA with Biden up by 1.1 and then a later poll had Trump up by 1.9.  Biden won the state by 1.2.  They missed the margin in Florida by 1, Nevada by .1, NC by .7 and Wisconsin by .7.   And they almost nailed the Georgia runoff, but missed Warnock by 3 points.   

If Trafalgar has Youngkin up by 1, then the Republicans are within striking distance. 

Things are different when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

[Person Man]

If even Trafalgar only has Youngkin+1 and needs Biden-18 to get that, that tells you all you need to know about where this race is (i.e Likely D).

Trafalgar (A-) is great pollster with a much low partisan bias than any other pollsters that has released results for Virginia.  They did well in 2020.  They only missed swing states by margins that were within their margin of error.  Right before the election, they had polls in PA with Biden up by 1.1 and then a later poll had Trump up by 1.9.  Biden won the state by 1.2.  They missed the margin in Florida by 1, Nevada by .1, NC by .7 and Wisconsin by .7.   And they almost nailed the Georgia runoff, but missed Warnock by 3 points.   

If Trafalgar has Youngkin up by 1, then the Republicans are within striking distance. 

Things are different when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Yeah. People weren't motivated to vote for Biden in 2020.  We saw it in the primary when people only came out for him when they thought Sanders would win.  They feared Sanders would give Trump an easy victory.  They were mainly voting against Trump.  It's become increasingly obvious that the strategy of "remember Trump" and "This Republican is Trump 2.0" isn't going to work out.

Now people are motivated to vote against Biden. And it doesn't help that McAuliffe sits on the wrong side of many issues associated with Biden and the far left such as the economy, jobs, inflation, crime and jobs. Covid comes in third, but there's a large contingency within that number who oppose the vaccine mandate.  It's the same in every swing state.  Everybody has been talking about gas and food prices, but it's like the Democrats are completely out of the loop.  And people associate Biden with these issues. 

They're sending Kamala Harris to Virginia cause she can't do anything else right, but I'm pretty sure she's generally disliked.  Nobody showed up to her rally in Virginia with McAuliffe.  If I'm Youngkin, I'm hoping she talks to as many people as possible.   
https://rumble.com/vo3rx2-nobody-shows-up-for-terry-and-kamala-in-virginia.html

I would say that McAuliffe would be effed   if this was Arizona, Georgia, or Virginia or Colorado 10 years ago. That’s just not the case though. Maybe it is and Virginia is a swing state again.

[Person Man]

easy to dismiss them but it cannot be denied they were the best pollster in 2020.

Not sure Trafalgar's methodology holds up without Trump on the ballot.

Or outside of the Great Lakes, Florida, and Northern New England.

[Person Man]

easy to dismiss them but it cannot be denied they were the best pollster in 2020.

Not sure Trafalgar's methodology holds up without Trump on the ballot.

Or outside of the Great Lakes, Florida, and Northern New England.

Their methodology is very specifically about finding the "silent voter," (or inventing him out of thin air) which makes them the best in particular contexts, but Virginia with a particularly inoffensive Republican candidate is not that context.

Basically finding people who are ashamed of their values. That’s what powering the Republican Party. The ability to get people to vote for a candidate even if they are ashamed. Democrats have always struggled with that. “My guy is a socialist? Guess I’m not going to vote.” On the other hand, “My guy’s a racist. Fine he’s an asshole but I’m still voting for him while telling everyone else I didn’t vote.”