If even Trafalgar only has Youngkin+1 and needs Biden-18 to get that, that tells you all you need to know about where this race is (i.e Likely D).
Trafalgar (A-) is great pollster with a much low partisan bias than any other pollsters that has released results for Virginia. They did well in 2020. They only missed swing states by margins that were within their margin of error. Right before the election, they had polls in PA with Biden up by 1.1 and then a later poll had Trump up by 1.9. Biden won the state by 1.2. They missed the margin in Florida by 1, Nevada by .1, NC by .7 and Wisconsin by .7. And they almost nailed the Georgia runoff, but missed Warnock by 3 points.
If Trafalgar has Youngkin up by 1, then the Republicans are within striking distance.
Things are different when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
Yeah. People weren't motivated to vote for Biden in 2020. We saw it in the primary when people only came out for him when they thought Sanders would win. They feared Sanders would give Trump an easy victory. They were mainly voting against Trump. It's become increasingly obvious that the strategy of "remember Trump" and "This Republican is Trump 2.0" isn't going to work out.
Now people are motivated to vote against Biden. And it doesn't help that McAuliffe sits on the wrong side of many issues associated with Biden and the far left such as the economy, jobs, inflation, crime and jobs. Covid comes in third, but there's a large contingency within that number who oppose the vaccine mandate. It's the same in every swing state. Everybody has been talking about gas and food prices, but it's like the Democrats are completely out of the loop. And people associate Biden with these issues.
They're sending Kamala Harris to Virginia cause she can't do anything else right, but I'm pretty sure she's generally disliked. Nobody showed up to her rally in Virginia with McAuliffe. If I'm Youngkin, I'm hoping she talks to as many people as possible.
https://rumble.com/vo3rx2-nobody-shows-up-for-terry-and-kamala-in-virginia.html
A lot of this is very wrong, but it's also wrong to say Trafalgar was accurate in VA. They just had Biden's approval at -18 in VA in this poll, and their 2017 poll was terrible.
