Data for progress-VA- Tmac +5

[Matty]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

[Skill and Chance]

I know the overestimated downballot Dems just about everywhere.  Not sure about Biden himself?

[kwabbit]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, if this is the best D4P can do, then this race is likely over. Lean R at this point.

[Person Man]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

[Matty]

They only had newsom +14 last month

[kwabbit]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

My recollection is that they first polled in 2018 with a limited but successful record. They were also successful in the 2020 Dem primaries, before having their unsuccessful 2020 general election.

[Mr.Phips]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

In VA they only overestimated Biden’s margin by a point.  

[Hollywood]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

In VA they only overestimated Biden’s margin by a point.  

They got lucky.  It was one of the very few states where their overestimation of Democrats paid off.  They got other southern states wrong by 6-8 percent.  In fact, they put out an earlier poll with Biden up 30 points in Virginia.  Total nonsense. 

Data for Progress is on the list top 10 worst pollster.  No Republican pollster can compete with their partisan bias, because 538 has them in the top 5 with 4 other D pollsters ahead of them. 

[NOVA Green]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

My recollection is that they first polled in 2018 with a limited but successful record. They were also successful in the 2020 Dem primaries, before having their unsuccessful 2020 general election.

Sounds about right from my recollection.

Personally IMHO most pollsters performed pretty crappy in the 2020 GE so I don't give tons of street cred to any of these, let alone in an off-year and odd-year GOV election in VA.

[Hollywood]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

My recollection is that they first polled in 2018 with a limited but successful record. They were also successful in the 2020 Dem primaries, before having their unsuccessful 2020 general election.

Sounds about right from my recollection.

Personally IMHO most pollsters performed pretty crappy in the 2020 GE so I don't give tons of street cred to any of these, let alone in an off-year and odd-year GOV election in VA.

The odd years can be boiled down to enthusiasm, motivation and certainty of vote. The polls that include this measurement are best.  In 2017, Northam voters were more interested (52%) and certain to vote (53%) while Republicans were not as motivated (Mid-40s).  Trumps disapproval was around 52-53% at the time. The final result was 53.9% to 45%.  Emerson, Monmouth and Trafalgar have written on the issue in recent polls.  The certainty that voters will come out for your candidate will better indicate how voters are reacting to a variety of issues like candidate policies and approval ratings.  Trump had a 53% disapproval rating in Virginia when Republicans lost in 2017, and most voters in New Jersey were motivated to remove Corzine (48.5-44-5) from New Jersey in 2009 cause  56% of them wanted to lower property taxes and end corruption. 

I've never had an issue guessing races with dozens of polls providing the above information.  You just need look inside Emerson, Monmouth, Q, Marist, Mason and Trafalgar. 

[wbrocks67]

Poll is at least somewhat old though. It was conducted oct2-oct15

Very reasonable topline

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2021/10/22/mcauliffe-slated-to-win-in-virginia


Wasn’t DfP a very accurate 2020 pollster?

Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.

And midterms?

My recollection is that they first polled in 2018 with a limited but successful record. They were also successful in the 2020 Dem primaries, before having their unsuccessful 2020 general election.

Sounds about right from my recollection.

Personally IMHO most pollsters performed pretty crappy in the 2020 GE so I don't give tons of street cred to any of these, let alone in an off-year and odd-year GOV election in VA.

The odd years can be boiled down to enthusiasm, motivation and certainty of vote. The polls that include this measurement are best.  In 2017, Northam voters were more interested (52%) and certain to vote (53%) while Republicans were not as motivated (Mid-40s).  Trumps disapproval was around 52-53% at the time. The final result was 53.9% to 45%.  Emerson, Monmouth and Trafalgar have written on the issue in recent polls.  The certainty that voters will come out for your candidate will better indicate how voters are reacting to a variety of issues like candidate policies and approval ratings.  Trump had a 53% disapproval rating in Virginia when Republicans lost in 2017, and most voters in New Jersey were motivated to remove Corzine (48.5-44-5) from New Jersey in 2009 cause  56% of them wanted to lower property taxes and end corruption. 

I've never had an issue guessing races with dozens of polls providing the above information.  You just need look inside Emerson, Monmouth, Q, Marist, Mason and Trafalgar. 

No it was not. It was 57% in VA, according to exit polls, and pretty close to that nationally as well.

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, honestly, this is a realistic topline IMO. Also Youngkin winning Indies by +3, which seems reasonable given Gillepsie won them by 3 in 2017.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It may be a slightly old poll, but Data for Progress was very accurate with the presidential race in 2020-only underestimating Trump's support by 1%.

With how polling has been looking on this race, I think I'll take it. If McAuliffe wins by 5 or so, it'll be fairly typical and similar to how past Democrats won statewide like Clinton, Kaine, Obama, and Warner. Hell, it may even look more impressive amidst the horse-race narrative that the media is projecting on this race, justifiably or not.