Trafalgar: youngkin +1
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  Trafalgar: youngkin +1
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Author Topic: Trafalgar: youngkin +1  (Read 2010 times)
Matty
boshembechle
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« on: October 14, 2021, 09:19:43 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2021, 09:23:06 PM »

Cue the bedwetting from SnowLabrador...
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 10:06:12 PM »

Can't wait for this supposedly A rated pollster to get yet another race horribly wrong!
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 10:18:45 PM »

They should just declare Youngkin the winner. Why even challenge the results of this stud pollster!?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2021, 05:31:07 AM »

Never forget when Trafalgar's final poll of VA-GOV in 2017 had Northam +1.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2021, 05:36:30 AM »

Sticking with McAuliffe +2, but Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020. A Youngkin upset is not out of the question.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2021, 06:36:23 AM »

Sticking with McAuliffe +2, but Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020. A Youngkin upset is not out of the question.

Agreed, but important to note their 2020 errors were all in Trump's favor.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2021, 08:39:26 AM »

Sticking with McAuliffe +2, but Trafalgar was the best pollster in 2020. A Youngkin upset is not out of the question.

Agreed, but important to note their 2020 errors were all in Trump's favor.

So this is probably is a 95th percentile performance.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2021, 08:54:41 AM »

easy to dismiss them but it cannot be denied they were the best pollster in 2020.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2021, 09:14:30 AM »

Uh WAIT-

this poll also has Bidens approval at.... 40/58 ... -18 in Virginia.

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2021, 09:28:09 AM »

Cue the bedwetting from SnowLabrador...

The Child tax credit is a slap in the face to those that don't qualify like Seniors with no kids
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2021, 09:30:29 AM »

Decimals? LOL.

Trafalgar somehow wasn't thjat off in the Rust Belt in 2020, though they were completely off in 2018. Perhaps they're more accurate with Trump on ballot; otherwise they're pretty bad. Likely D.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2021, 05:01:19 PM »

Kudos for them to releasing such a "controversial" poll. If race is really McAuliffe+3 as 538 suggest, you should get some polls ranging from Younkin +2 to McAuliffe +8.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2021, 06:01:42 PM »

Youngkin is surging because Terry McAuliffe is going to send trans youths to rape students in bathrooms!

No, for real: this is nothing but a consolation prize to Youngkin. He has now officially led in another poll. That makes, what? Three? But it's a bulls*** poll. There is no way that Biden is underwater by 18 points, and if that is the case, as noted before, that's absolutely pathetic that it would only yield a tenuous one point lead for a Republican in an off-year election.

This poll may actually be useful after all, in really hammering home how gone the state is for Republicans and what insurmountable circumstances it would take to win a statewide election when the party exists as it does.

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Chips
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2021, 08:09:28 PM »

I can buy Biden being slightly underwater in VA but I can't imagine he's only at 40% approval.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2021, 10:23:36 AM »

Decimals? LOL.

Trafalgar somehow wasn't thjat off in the Rust Belt in 2020, though they were completely off in 2018. Perhaps they're more accurate with Trump on ballot; otherwise they're pretty bad. Likely D.

Trafalgar accidentally stumbled into not being too far off in 2020. Not because their methodology isnít garbage (it is), but because their assumption of invisible Trump voters missed by other polls actually turned out to be correct. (Well actually, their assumption that ďshyĒ Trump voters were lying to pollsters was not correct, but the effect was essentially the same.) However, that applies only and specifically to Trump, as 2018 and every other race in non-2020 years since 2016 showed.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: October 16, 2021, 10:32:14 AM »

The low-propensity Trump voters thing is a meme that has been debunked. Youngkin's probably not going to win, but this race will be a lot closer than it should be.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2021, 10:42:58 AM »

Trafalgar is not a god-tier pollster. Theyíve had plenty of laughably bad results mixed in with some that were decent, and those results tended to be more in the Midwest than anywhere else. Pretty confident that this will be another one of their (many) duds.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2021, 10:57:49 AM »

The low-propensity Trump voters thing is a meme that has been debunked. Youngkin's probably not going to win, but this race will be a lot closer than it should be.

We also have VBM Traggy was off during GA because of the VBM Vote, we don't need Rs controlling Congress, Shift said that of Mccarthy is Speaker he will decertify Biden once Biden beats Trump again, that's why Trump wants the H and did you hear Boehner, he certified Obama as Prez in 2013/ he isn't a Rep R like Mccarthy is, McCarthy will decertify Biden in 2025

You know this isn't a WC Election it's also a Blk and Brown election as well, that's why Elder was toast
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Duke of York
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2021, 11:04:23 AM »

The low-propensity Trump voters thing is a meme that has been debunked. Youngkin's probably not going to win, but this race will be a lot closer than it should be.

We also have VBM Traggy was off during GA because of the VBM Vote, we don't need Rs controlling Congress, Shift said that of Mccarthy is Speaker he will decertify Biden once Biden beats Trump again, that's why Trump wants the H and did you hear Boehner, he certified Obama as Prez in 2013/ he isn't a Rep R like Mccarthy is, McCarthy will decertify Biden in 2025

You know this isn't a WC Election it's also a Blk and Brown election as well, that's why Elder was toast
If Republicans do that they will tear the country apart.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2021, 11:05:59 AM »
« Edited: October 16, 2021, 11:13:58 AM by Alben Barkley »

The low-propensity Trump voters thing is a meme that has been debunked. Youngkin's probably not going to win, but this race will be a lot closer than it should be.

It is not a meme and it has absolutely not been debunked. If anything itís closer to the opposite; itís been decisively proven. In almost every single off-year election since 2016, Democrats have if anything overperformed polls. Including in the 2021 GA senate races and CA governor recall after Biden was elected, and in the LA and KY 2019 gov races when Trump personally begged voters to vote R in these deep red states, and the actual 2017 VA gov race. While it was only in 2016 and 2020, when Trump himself was on the ballot, when Republicans significantly overperformed polls.

Common sense, logic, and data all thus point to the conclusion that Trumpís presence on the ballot drives out turnout among voters who otherwise wonít show up for Generic Rs, or even Trumpy and Trump-backed Rs. Now heís outright telling these people not to vote because heís still butthurt he lost last year. (Which probably killed the GOP in GA in January too by the way.) What the hell do you think is gonna happen as a result of all that?

Not to mention the fact that the highest propensity voters (educated whites) who historically and presently are the ones most likely to show up in off-year elections have switched to the Dems in droves. This makes the pollsters current likely voter screens, overcompensating massively for their 2020 miss, laughably bad because they are assuming the electorate now is going to be a combination of the Trump only voters they missed last time and suburban white Republicans from 2010 and 2014. Except most of the former wonít vote without Trump, and most of the latter are now Dems.

This ridiculous assumption caused them to be off catastrophically in CA, a polling miss far worse than their 2020 miss, and I am pretty confident that will happen again here. The RV results will likely be more accurate than the LV results for most of these polls, just like in CA. (VA has also taken steps to make it easier to vote by the way, even if not to the same extent as CA mailing ballots to everyone.)
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Matty
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2021, 12:44:51 PM »

Alben, Iím sorry but that post is way too definitive
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #22 on: October 17, 2021, 05:34:03 PM »

So itís really McAuliffe +9. Got it!
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: October 17, 2021, 05:49:39 PM »

Trafalgar has had success with their polls in the sense that they've been pretty accurate with the GOP percentages, while everybody else had them 5-10 points lower than reality. That said, they've done the opposite, and underestimated Dems by several points, resulting in them being off by quite a bit in the final margin.

They performed well in some Rust Belt states (outside of Ohio, where they notably had a large D bias) and Florida, but quite a few other places they've actually been one of the bottom tier pollsters.
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S019
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2021, 10:38:52 PM »

If even Trafalgar only has Youngkin+1 and needs Biden-18 to get that, that tells you all you need to know about where this race is (i.e Likely D).
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