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Poll
Question: Rate the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election
#1
Safe McAuliffe
#2
Likely McAuliffe
#3
Lean McAuliffe
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt McAuliffe
#5
Toss-Up/Tilt Youngkin
#6
Lean Youngkin
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate Virginia  (Read 3608 times)
President Johnson
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E: -3.23, S: -4.70


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« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2021, 04:45:09 PM »
Likely Democratic.

T-Mac wins 53-45%.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2021, 06:10:02 PM »
Likely Democratic, as it's always been.

For the hundredth time I'll reiterate my six point McAuliffe victory prediction.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2021, 06:11:21 PM »
Terry McAuliffe (D): 50.4%
Glenn Youngkin (R): 48.3%

Tilt D.
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Senator Spark
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: October 15, 2021, 06:38:37 PM »
A good state no doubt
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #29 on: October 15, 2021, 06:40:49 PM »
Lean T-Mac.

McAuliffe - 51%
Youngkin - 47%
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM »
Lean R but that may change before election day.

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2021, 06:27:15 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM
Lean R but that may change before election day.



Even SnowLabrador thinks McAuliffe is going to win. Get a grip.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2021, 06:29:49 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on October 17, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM
Lean R but that may change before election day.



Even SnowLabrador thinks McAuliffe is going to win. Get a grip.

Read twitter sometimes and you will see there is a lot of evidence that Youngkin is slightly favored.

Of course that can change over the next two weeks.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2021, 06:31:57 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:29:49 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on October 17, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM
Lean R but that may change before election day.



Even SnowLabrador thinks McAuliffe is going to win. Get a grip.

Read twitter sometimes and you will see there is a lot of evidence that Youngkin is slightly favored.

Of course that can change over the next two weeks.

...I am not any more convinced.
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2021, 06:33:03 PM »
I hope Tmac wins.. Glenn Trumpkin is very very dangerous. A literal Trumpist packaged as a romney like figure. Could do a lot of damage.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #35 on: October 18, 2021, 02:04:33 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:29:49 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on October 17, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM
Lean R but that may change before election day.



Even SnowLabrador thinks McAuliffe is going to win. Get a grip.

Read twitter sometimes and you will see there is a lot of evidence that Youngkin is slightly favored.

Of course that can change over the next two weeks.

For your own sake, stop reading Twitter & local Facebook groups and step outside for a couple hours.
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Xing
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« Reply #36 on: October 18, 2021, 02:16:51 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:29:49 PM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on October 17, 2021, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:26:15 PM
Lean R but that may change before election day.



Even SnowLabrador thinks McAuliffe is going to win. Get a grip.

Read twitter sometimes and you will see there is a lot of evidence that Youngkin is slightly favored.

Of course that can change over the next two weeks.

Worst advice ever.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2021, 02:41:56 PM »
Quote from: jimmie on October 17, 2021, 06:33:03 PM
I hope Tmac wins.. Glenn Trumpkin is very very dangerous. A literal Trumpist packaged as a romney like figure. Could do a lot of damage.

He won't even have a unified legislature.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #38 on: October 18, 2021, 05:18:07 PM »
McAuliffe +2
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #39 on: October 18, 2021, 05:20:22 PM »
Moving it back to Lean D for now in event of all the news today.
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Burke Bro
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« Reply #40 on: October 18, 2021, 05:39:20 PM »
Some of you guys are hysterical. Safe D, McAullife +9.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #41 on: October 18, 2021, 06:10:33 PM »
T.Mac by a minimum of 5%, with a median around 7%.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #42 on: October 18, 2021, 06:18:42 PM »
Likely D.  McAulife wins by 5 or 6.
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DS0816
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« Reply #43 on: October 20, 2021, 03:20:45 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 14, 2021, 06:50:04 PM
Lean D. Right now, this is my estimated prediction

McAuliffe: 52.0%
Youngkin: 47.5%

…

Fine guess.

In both 2013 and 2017—with each party having prevailed in the following midterm-elections cycles with the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governors (on the watches of incumbent U.S. presidents from both major parties)—Virginia performed nearly +6 above national margins in favor of the Democrats.

The 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. Governors by +3.07 percentage points. In a 2022 midterm-elections cycle with a Democratic incumbent U.S. president and a U.S. House flipping Republican, it is highly likely the 2022 gubernatorial Democrats will not hold the U.S. Popular Vote.

2021 Virginia and New Jersey will likely signal what is to come in 2022. The 2017 margins in those states were +8.93 and +14.14. Anything less, here in 2021, is really good for the 2022 Republicans. (New Jersey and Virginia are the No. 11 and No. 12 most-populous states in the nation. New Jersey was a 2018 Democratic gubernatorial pickup.)
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jamestroll
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« Reply #44 on: October 21, 2021, 04:11:59 PM »
Without being melodramatic and speaking of riots.. etc..

Youngkin +2
Sears +2 or 3
Miyares +1

HoD
52 GOP
48 Dem.

Is my tentative final prediction.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #45 on: October 21, 2021, 04:21:33 PM »
Feeling that Youngkin wins narrowly. 
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jamestroll
jamespol
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« Reply #46 on: October 21, 2021, 04:35:06 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on October 21, 2021, 04:21:33 PM
Feeling that Youngkin wins narrowly. 

Yes lol.

I think Democrats might be able to win back the house of delegates in 2022 special elections with some rural districts being axed.

My evaluation of the partisan lean of the state will be based on how Youngkin wins. If he wins with normal turnout, that  should scare Kaine and Biden in 2024. But if he wins due to a turnout differential, I would still keep it as a Dem leaning state, especially for 2024.

Nova is not going to vote Republican any time soon, but a Democratic underperformance would  be devastating as, unlike Warner, there clearly wont be any old school voting in the boonies.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #47 on: October 21, 2021, 04:36:31 PM »
Guessing a 4-5 points swing from the latest election, so D~+5?

With that said, the polling is scarce. If some national polling/trends are somewhat real and not just noise - for instance Quinni and Selzer had Biden 13 points under water and doing even worse so with Indies - then the race might get much closer than that.
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Spectator
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« Reply #48 on: October 21, 2021, 04:37:38 PM »
Safe D, McAuliffe +3
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #49 on: October 21, 2021, 04:39:59 PM »
How is a 3 point race safe D.. lmao
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