My 2022 Congressional/Gubernatorial Prediction

[Make America Grumpy Again]

House:

Generally disappointing for The GOP. Several seats flip but the loses are similar to the gains and Dems narrowly hold onto the House by a few seats. There's a strong pro-incumbency wave which leads many thought of tossup seats to remain stable. The main gains/losses are mainly by moderate Dems/Never Trump Republicans who lose their respective primaries which lead to a party switch.

Senate:

Also disappointing, but not as disappointing as the house, which I'll explain state by state below in detail. Florida and Ohio remains in GOP control, although it is not as strong as Republicans were hoping for. Mandel wins by around 2 points, falling short of hopes since Ryan is a strong challenger. Rubio wins re-election fairly easily although by a slightly closer margin than in 2016, falling short of the initial 20-point goals seen in 2021 polling. Iowa stays in favor of The GOP as well but by a 5-10 point margin instead of the previous landslide margin's due to Grassley's age.


Tossup seats:
NV, AZ, GA, NC, WI, PA, NH

D-leaning tossups:
WI, GA, NC, NH*

R-leaning tossups:
NV, AZ, PA

NV: Likely leans-R due to dissatisfaction with Covid-restrictions and a drop among Democratic support in Clark County, especially if Adam Laxalt wins the nomination since the Laxalt name is popular in Nevada, but I'd expect Cortez to hold on if a Trumpy candidate gets nominated at the last second. He did only narrowly lose the 2018 gubernatorial race in a strong-D year.


AZ: Likely leans-R due to decreased Democratic turnout in Maricopa County, however Kelly could have an advantage if The Arizona GOP nominates a Trumpist.

WI: A tossup but moderates will support The Dem in higher numbers due to Johnson's 2020 election fraud claims. This would be one of the stronger Democratic elections for a GOP-held seat, but the Dem nominee only wins by about 1%.

GA: Will likely tilt-R due to Warnock's progressivism and Walker appealing to moderate/conservative AA's, but if Abrams in running for governor in a rematch, this could help Warnock with moderates/AA's.

NC: If Cheri Beasley or Erica Smith wins the nomination, it's likely to narrowly flip due to increased AA turnout. If they lose, it'll likely remain in GOP control. Beasley is the frontrunner so I'll keep it as a lean-D for now, but in reality it's more of a tilt-D. Tedd Budd will probably be the strongest Rep due to Trump's backing, but with McCroy or Walker winning the nomination it's likely to be a tossup.

PA: Will likely tilt-R due to the current political environment, but Fetterman if he's nominated could be a stronger candidate than initially forecasted. Trump's endorsement of Parnell gives him an advantage if he wins the nomination, but Biden will likely boost moderate/Dem turnout for whoever the Dem nominee is.

NH*: Only lean-R if Sununu runs, otherwise it's a safe seat for Hassan.

All other states: Safe incumbent

Projected GOP seats: 50
Projected Dem seats: 48 (Plus 2 independents caucusing with The Dems)

Ends up turning into the same-old same-old with this projection, although The GOP (likely not McConnell with Trump's disdain) is only a close race or two away from becoming majority leader again.

Gubernatorial:

The gubernatorial races are slightly less predictable since the overall environment has shifted from anti-GOP to anti-Dem, although the losses/gains are less polarizing/significant than in another timeline due to Covid.

Maryland: Safe-D unless Rutherford runs, then it's likely-R.

Arizona: Lean-D (If Lake or another Trumpy candidate wins the nomination, otherwise Lean-R).

Massachusetts: Safe-R if Baker wins, but lean-D if Diehl wins. Diehl is very conservative by Massachusetts standards, but I can see Diehl pulling a Romney and managing to win off of Baker's popularity, especially if Baker endorses him. At the same time unlike Romney in 2002, Diehl aligned himself with Trump during his senate run, while Romney placed himself to the left of Ted Kennedy on healthcare when he ran for senate in 1994, so he might not have as much of an advantage as Romney.

NH: Safe-D if Lewandowski wins the nomination. Likely D if Testerman win's the nomination. Lean-R if either Brown or Ayotte win due to the political environment. Safe-R if Sununu runs.

Vermont: Safe-R if Scott runs. Safe D if anyone else runs.

Maine: Likely D-hold

Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania: Lean-D

Kansas: Absolute tossup. Brownback was not popular in Kansas but neither were Trump's tariffs. Despite Biden's unpopularity, Kelly has a slight advantage since she's the incumbent.

All other states: Safe hold

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol it's gonna nna follow the 304 blue wall CCM is ahead 46/41 and SISOLAK is ahead 45/43


These are the purple 🟣🟣🟣 seats
Super safe Seat CO
D seats WI  NH, NV, AZ, PA
R seats OH, FL, NC
Pure Tossup GA Runoffs
Super Safe R seats IA

Wishful thinking if either party gonna win each other stayes

[SnowLabrador]

I find it very hard to imagine Democrats holding the House if they're losing ground in the Senate.

[BoiseBoy]

Republicans win the House by a seat or two (depending on how the rest of redistricting goes) and the Senate remains 50/50 or 51/49 GOP.

With Gubernatorial elections, I am a lot less certain. I would say the possible range of seats for the GOP would be 26-30.

[ElectionsGuy]

Your predictions tend to follow into the beltway elitist conventional wisdom that Trump"ist" Republicans are destined to underperform or lose and Trump is leading to the shortfall of the Republican Party. More broadly in my view, I think you're overestimating Democrats. The claim that Johnson said the election was fraudulent isn't even true. It's a media smear and lie. You need to break out of that mindset if you want to predict things accurately, especially in 2022 nobody's going to care about how the media frames a candidate in relation to a president who isn't in office or what unapproved things they said about covid or the last election.

[Xing]

Well, I agree with the idea that AZ/GA/NC/NH/NV/PA/WI are the most competitive seats, but I don’t see any way Democrats are simultaneously losing NV and winning NC and WI. Laxalt is not that great of a candidate, and I don’t see why Johnson would struggle but he wouldn’t. Overall, I’d say that this is quite optimistic for the Democrats outside of NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV isn't going R the most recent polls have it D

[MT Treasurer]

I disagree with almost all of this, but I’ve bolded the parts which I think are conspicuously wrong.

House:

Generally disappointing for The GOP. Several seats flip but the loses are similar to the gains and Dems narrowly hold onto the House by a few seats. There's a strong pro-incumbency wave which leads many thought of tossup seats to remain stable. The main gains/losses are mainly by moderate Dems/Never Trump Republicans who lose their respective primaries which lead to a party switch.

Senate:

Also disappointing, but not as disappointing as the house, which I'll explain state by state below in detail. Florida and Ohio remains in GOP control, although it is not as strong as Republicans were hoping for. Mandel wins by around 2 points, falling short of hopes since Ryan is a strong challenger. Rubio wins re-election fairly easily although by a slightly closer margin than in 2016, falling short of the initial 20-point goals seen in 2021 polling. Iowa stays in favor of The GOP as well but by a 5-10 point margin instead of the previous landslide margin's due to Grassley's age.


Tossup seats:
NV, AZ, GA, NC, WI, PA, NH

D-leaning tossups:
WI, GA, NC, NH*

R-leaning tossups:
NV, AZ, PA

NV: Likely leans-R due to dissatisfaction with Covid-restrictions and a drop among Democratic support in Clark County, especially if Adam Laxalt wins the nomination since the Laxalt name is popular in Nevada, but I'd expect Cortez to hold on if a Trumpy candidate gets nominated at the last second. He did only narrowly lose the 2018 gubernatorial race in a strong-D year.


AZ: Likely leans-R due to decreased Democratic turnout in Maricopa County, however Kelly could have an advantage if The Arizona GOP nominates a Trumpist.

WI: A tossup but moderates will support The Dem in higher numbers due to Johnson's 2020 election fraud claims. This would be one of the stronger Democratic elections for a GOP-held seat, but the Dem nominee only wins by about 1%.

GA: Will likely tilt-R due to Warnock's progressivism and Walker appealing to moderate/conservative AA's, but if Abrams in running for governor in a rematch, this could help Warnock with moderates/AA's.

NC: If Cheri Beasley or Erica Smith wins the nomination, it's likely to narrowly flip due to increased AA turnout. If they lose, it'll likely remain in GOP control. Beasley is the frontrunner so I'll keep it as a lean-D for now, but in reality it's more of a tilt-D. Tedd Budd will probably be the strongest Rep due to Trump's backing, but with McCroy or Walker winning the nomination it's likely to be a tossup.

PA: Will likely tilt-R due to the current political environment, but Fetterman if he's nominated could be a stronger candidate than initially forecasted. Trump's endorsement of Parnell gives him an advantage if he wins the nomination, but Biden will likely boost moderate/Dem turnout for whoever the Dem nominee is.

NH*: Only lean-R if Sununu runs, otherwise it's a safe seat for Hassan.

All other states: Safe incumbent

Projected GOP seats: 50
Projected Dem seats: 48 (Plus 2 independents caucusing with The Dems)

Ends up turning into the same-old same-old with this projection, although The GOP (likely not McConnell with Trump's disdain) is only a close race or two away from becoming majority leader again.

Gubernatorial:

The gubernatorial races are slightly less predictable since the overall environment has shifted from anti-GOP to anti-Dem, although the losses/gains are less polarizing/significant than in another timeline due to Covid.

Maryland: Safe-D unless Rutherford runs, then it's likely-R.

Arizona: Lean-D (If Lake or another Trumpy candidate wins the nomination, otherwise Lean-R).

Massachusetts: Safe-R if Baker wins, but lean-D if Diehl wins. Diehl is very conservative by Massachusetts standards, but I can see Diehl pulling a Romney and managing to win off of Baker's popularity, especially if Baker endorses him. At the same time unlike Romney in 2002, Diehl aligned himself with Trump during his senate run, while Romney placed himself to the left of Ted Kennedy on healthcare when he ran for senate in 1994, so he might not have as much of an advantage as Romney.

NH: Safe-D if Lewandowski wins the nomination. Likely D if Testerman win's the nomination. Lean-R if either Brown or Ayotte win due to the political environment. Safe-R if Sununu runs.

Vermont: Safe-R if Scott runs. Safe D if anyone else runs.

Maine: Likely D-hold

Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania: Lean-D

Kansas: Absolute tossup. Brownback was not popular in Kansas but neither were Trump's tariffs. Despite Biden's unpopularity, Kelly has a slight advantage since she's the incumbent.

All other states: Safe hold

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree with almost all of this, but I’ve bolded the parts which I think are conspicuously wrong.

House:

Generally disappointing for The GOP. Several seats flip but the loses are similar to the gains and Dems narrowly hold onto the House by a few seats. There's a strong pro-incumbency wave which leads many thought of tossup seats to remain stable. The main gains/losses are mainly by moderate Dems/Never Trump Republicans who lose their respective primaries which lead to a party switch.

Senate:

Also disappointing, but not as disappointing as the house, which I'll explain state by state below in detail. Florida and Ohio remains in GOP control, although it is not as strong as Republicans were hoping for. Mandel wins by around 2 points, falling short of hopes since Ryan is a strong challenger. Rubio wins re-election fairly easily although by a slightly closer margin than in 2016, falling short of the initial 20-point goals seen in 2021 polling. Iowa stays in favor of The GOP as well but by a 5-10 point margin instead of the previous landslide margin's due to Grassley's age.


Tossup seats:
NV, AZ, GA, NC, WI, PA, NH

D-leaning tossups:
WI, GA, NC, NH*

R-leaning tossups:
NV, AZ, PA

NV: Likely leans-R due to dissatisfaction with Covid-restrictions and a drop among Democratic support in Clark County, especially if Adam Laxalt wins the nomination since the Laxalt name is popular in Nevada, but I'd expect Cortez to hold on if a Trumpy candidate gets nominated at the last second. He did only narrowly lose the 2018 gubernatorial race in a strong-D year.


AZ: Likely leans-R due to decreased Democratic turnout in Maricopa County, however Kelly could have an advantage if The Arizona GOP nominates a Trumpist.

WI: A tossup but moderates will support The Dem in higher numbers due to Johnson's 2020 election fraud claims. This would be one of the stronger Democratic elections for a GOP-held seat, but the Dem nominee only wins by about 1%.

GA: Will likely tilt-R due to Warnock's progressivism and Walker appealing to moderate/conservative AA's, but if Abrams in running for governor in a rematch, this could help Warnock with moderates/AA's.

NC: If Cheri Beasley or Erica Smith wins the nomination, it's likely to narrowly flip due to increased AA turnout. If they lose, it'll likely remain in GOP control. Beasley is the frontrunner so I'll keep it as a lean-D for now, but in reality it's more of a tilt-D. Tedd Budd will probably be the strongest Rep due to Trump's backing, but with McCroy or Walker winning the nomination it's likely to be a tossup.

PA: Will likely tilt-R due to the current political environment, but Fetterman if he's nominated could be a stronger candidate than initially forecasted. Trump's endorsement of Parnell gives him an advantage if he wins the nomination, but Biden will likely boost moderate/Dem turnout for whoever the Dem nominee is.

NH*: Only lean-R if Sununu runs, otherwise it's a safe seat for Hassan.

All other states: Safe incumbent

Projected GOP seats: 50
Projected Dem seats: 48 (Plus 2 independents caucusing with The Dems)

Ends up turning into the same-old same-old with this projection, although The GOP (likely not McConnell with Trump's disdain) is only a close race or two away from becoming majority leader again.

Gubernatorial:

The gubernatorial races are slightly less predictable since the overall environment has shifted from anti-GOP to anti-Dem, although the losses/gains are less polarizing/significant than in another timeline due to Covid.

Maryland: Safe-D unless Rutherford runs, then it's likely-R.

Arizona: Lean-D (If Lake or another Trumpy candidate wins the nomination, otherwise Lean-R).

Massachusetts: Safe-R if Baker wins, but lean-D if Diehl wins. Diehl is very conservative by Massachusetts standards, but I can see Diehl pulling a Romney and managing to win off of Baker's popularity, especially if Baker endorses him. At the same time unlike Romney in 2002, Diehl aligned himself with Trump during his senate run, while Romney placed himself to the left of Ted Kennedy on healthcare when he ran for senate in 1994, so he might not have as much of an advantage as Romney.

NH: Safe-D if Lewandowski wins the nomination. Likely D if Testerman win's the nomination. Lean-R if either Brown or Ayotte win due to the political environment. Safe-R if Sununu runs.

Vermont: Safe-R if Scott runs. Safe D if anyone else runs.

Maine: Likely D-hold

Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania: Lean-D

Kansas: Absolute tossup. Brownback was not popular in Kansas but neither were Trump's tariffs. Despite Biden's unpopularity, Kelly has a slight advantage since she's the incumbent.

All other states: Safe hold

Rs really think Brnovich is gonna best SEN Mark Kelly, D' want Tim Ryan to beat Josh Mandel, LOL, THERE HASNT BEEN ONE POLL SHOWING THATS THE CASE

SO19 WANTS DEMINGS And Crist to beat DESANTIS but there are polls showing Demings down by 4, abd Crist down by 8, DUE TO FACT DeSantis and Rubio and Wasserman Schultz did a fine job in Surfside where was Demings, NOWHERE


KELLY WILL WON AND So will Josh Mandel, just because we want this to happen doesn't mean it's going to happen

NATE SILVER 304 BLUE WALL.AND BIDEN HAS UPSIDE DOWN APPROVALS IN FL 40/50%

WE WERE PRODUCING 800K jobs a month, Biden has the same exact Approvals as he had on Election night 50/48% meaning a 304

Abby Fink Flopped

YOU DO REALIZE OUR MAPS ARE SCORED NO WISHFUL MAPS,  many Ds made wishful maps in 2020 due to QU erroroneus polling they had Biden leading Trump the weekend before the Election in OH

They had Harrison tied and McGrath within 4 of Mcconnell

[progressive85]

A massive Republican wave, fueled by the Right base coming out to vote and the Left base to not vote with as much intensity, and indies swinging to Republican candidates, especially in the last week (another chaos week for the White House because Our Beautiful Liberal Media might think it could boost ratings and sales).

This House elected in '22 will be the most loopy House in history with a fresh batch of crazy nutty cookies and anti-PC, anti-cancel culture, anti-identity politics Snowflakes.  It's going to be a large "freshman" class (they'll insist on that word to own the libs) and all of them will be one variation of nutball and goofball and insurrectionist or another.

Several will focus all their energy on overturning Roe - which is so odd because they ran as fiscal conservatives but their true Culture Warrior/Religious Right colors are revealed after they get in - and also odd because they must realize that they were not elected to the Supreme Court, right?

Trump does win in 2024, but it's very very close, and the wave that brought in the battiest of new CongressCritters goes back out to sea, and some of these surf and TERFers are cast away with the new bluer waves coming into shore.

[MATTROSE94]

These predictions seems about right for the most part and align with my prediction (a very mild Republican wave), though I have the Senate races in Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia, and Hawaii turning out differently. It seems that Adam Laxalt, Chris Sununu, and Mark Brnovich are favored because of the fact that that are extremely strong candidates. Georgia is a bit difficult, but Herschel Walker can win in the runoff election even if Stacy Abrams wins the governorship. Additionally, it is also possible that Tulsi Gabbard opts to run as a Trump aligned independent and win in a three way race against Brian Schatz and Campbell Cavasso.

[TrumpBritt24]

Kansas flips.