Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I don’t think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).
Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.
They might very well be in a no-win situation with progressives staying home if Sinema is the nominee and certain centrist dems staying home or voting for the Republican if the nominee is too far to the left for them, but it's too early to tell.
