DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema (user search)
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  DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema (search mode)
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Author Topic: DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema  (Read 1883 times)
Holmes
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Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« on: October 14, 2021, 12:38:04 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2021, 01:06:30 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.

Definitely. Sinema has lost the approval of a large part of the D base, but she still enjoys considerable crossover appeal among Republicans (even Republican leaders/strategists are heaping praise on her on a regular basis even though she is obviously extremely unlikely to cast the deciding vote against anything D leadership actually prioritizes). Sinema losing the primary would only reinforce the predictable "[candidate xyz] is too left-wing for AZ/does not represent the spirit of John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema/etc." lines of attack, and both Kelly and Sinema (unlike Warnock or Ossoff) owe their wins largely to moderates. Gallego would never get the crossover support from R-leaning voters that Sinema would have gotten and would depend on the top of the ticket/environment/mistakes of his R opponent much more than Sinema.

But crossover appeal doesn't mean they'll vote for her. These people aren't swing voters. Republicans like her because she screws up the Democratic agenda. Republicans and R voting indies in Arizona will easily vote for an actual Republican who can do this over a Democrat.
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Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 08:37:28 PM »

But crossover appeal doesn't mean they'll vote for her. These people aren't swing voters. Republicans like her because she screws up the Democratic agenda. Republicans and R voting indies in Arizona will easily vote for an actual Republican who can do this over a Democrat.

The people you are talking about are literally the reason you guys have the trifecta (Republicans/Trump voters/R-leaning indies supporting Manchin, Tester, Golden, Cartwright, etc.).

People here are really underestimating how easily some voters can be conned into supporting the "right" candidate from the other side — this is even more true for Republicans (at least in Senate races) but also applies to D-leaning voters in gubernatorial races (e.g. Democrats for Sununu). Not everyone is a hardcore partisan.

But there's a difference between voters in West Virginia and Montana compared to Arizona. I'm not saying to run super progressives in those states. But Arizona is moving left fast enough that that kind of Democrat isn't necessary. Not to mention those incumbents you mentioned haven't burned their bases like Sinema has.
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