Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I don’t think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).
Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.
I mean the thing I feel as though you're forgetting is however the general election may go also depends on who the GOP nominates and last time I checked they don't have as good of a track record on choosing the best nominee as they could.
