DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema
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October 16, 2021, 01:44:37 AM

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  DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema
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Author Topic: DFP Poll Suggests Deep Primary Trouble For Kyrsten Sinema  (Read 514 times)
Pollster
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« on: October 14, 2021, 12:03:20 PM »

Didn't think this was right to put in the 2022 polls board, mods please move if it is.

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Seventy percent of prospective 2024 primary voters have a negative opinion of Sinema, with just 24% expressing a positive view of the first-term senator. Nearly half have a ďvery unfavorableĒ opinion. For contrast, 85% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is also in his first term.

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The survey tested Sinema against four different potential primary challengers: Rep. Ruben Gallego, an Iraq War veteran who represents Phoenix and whose name often comes up in conversations about potential threats to Sinema; Rep. Greg Stanton, a former mayor of Phoenix; Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego; and Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.

If all four candidates ran ― an unlikely scenario for many reasons, including the fact that Ruben and Kate Gallego used to be married to each other ― the survey has Ruben Gallego earning 23% of the vote to Sinemaís 19% and Stantonís 13%. Both Romero and Kate Gallego would theoretically earn 9% of the vote.

But head-to-head matchups drive home how dire Sinemaís position could be. All four potential challengers have massive leads: Ruben Gallego leads Sinema 62% to 23%; Kate Gallego has a 60% to 25% edge; Stanton leads 59% to 24%; and Romero leads 55% to 26%.

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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2021, 12:10:29 PM »

I hope she sees this and is terrified.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 12:19:56 PM »

Now poll her and the challengers against likely Republican opponents to get a full picture.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 12:35:29 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I donít think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).

Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2021, 12:38:04 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2021, 12:39:02 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I donít think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).

Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.

They might very well be in a no-win situation with progressives staying home if Sinema is the nominee and certain centrist dems staying home or voting for the Republican if the nominee is too far to the left for them, but it's too early to tell.
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2021, 12:42:53 PM »

There are not hundreds of thousands of voters in Arizona who would vote for a Republican against any Democrat but Sinema. Partisan Republicans are going to back someone who votes with McConnell >95% of the time over someone who might do it ~50% of the time. Tilt D for 2020 regardless of the Democrat. The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2021, 12:48:02 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.

Definitely. Sinema has lost the approval of a large part of the D base, but she still enjoys considerable crossover appeal among Republicans (even Republican leaders/strategists are heaping praise on her on a regular basis even though she is obviously extremely unlikely to cast the deciding vote against anything D leadership actually prioritizes). Sinema losing the primary would only reinforce the predictable "[candidate xyz] is too left-wing for AZ/does not represent the spirit of John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema/etc." lines of attack, and both Kelly and Sinema (unlike Warnock or Ossoff) owe their wins largely to moderates. Gallego would never get the crossover support from R-leaning voters that Sinema would have gotten and would depend on the top of the ticket/environment/mistakes of his R opponent much more than Sinema.
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2021, 01:01:36 PM »

There are not hundreds of thousands of voters in Arizona who would vote for a Republican against any Democrat but Sinema.

This is a straw man ó there donít have to be "hundreds of thousands" of these people to make the difference in a state as close as AZ.

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Partisan Republicans are going to back someone who votes with McConnell >95% of the time over someone who might do it ~50% of the time.

Yes, and not every Republican in AZ is a partisan Republican? Sinema didnít win in 2018 because of "partisan Republicans," those people obviously supported McSally. Also, the vast majority of swing voters donít study these statistics/voting records and vote based on perception/branding rather than the candidates' actual ideology.

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The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.

No, because Democrats would never vote for a Republican Senate over Kyrsten Sinema. Remind me: When was the last time a Democrat actually lost a competitive Senate race because the D base didnít "come home" for them? This is far, far more common with R incumbents/candidates, Democrats usually donít demand these purity tests because they know whatís at stake.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2021, 01:06:30 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.

Definitely. Sinema has lost the approval of a large part of the D base, but she still enjoys considerable crossover appeal among Republicans (even Republican leaders/strategists are heaping praise on her on a regular basis even though she is obviously extremely unlikely to cast the deciding vote against anything D leadership actually prioritizes). Sinema losing the primary would only reinforce the predictable "[candidate xyz] is too left-wing for AZ/does not represent the spirit of John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema/etc." lines of attack, and both Kelly and Sinema (unlike Warnock or Ossoff) owe their wins largely to moderates. Gallego would never get the crossover support from R-leaning voters that Sinema would have gotten and would depend on the top of the ticket/environment/mistakes of his R opponent much more than Sinema.

But crossover appeal doesn't mean they'll vote for her. These people aren't swing voters. Republicans like her because she screws up the Democratic agenda. Republicans and R voting indies in Arizona will easily vote for an actual Republican who can do this over a Democrat.
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DTC
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2021, 01:07:40 PM »

The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.

Proof?
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2021, 01:19:26 PM »

But crossover appeal doesn't mean they'll vote for her. These people aren't swing voters. Republicans like her because she screws up the Democratic agenda. Republicans and R voting indies in Arizona will easily vote for an actual Republican who can do this over a Democrat.

The people you are talking about are literally the reason you guys have the trifecta (Republicans/Trump voters/R-leaning indies supporting Manchin, Tester, Golden, Cartwright, etc.).

People here are really underestimating how easily some voters can be conned into supporting the "right" candidate from the other side ó this is even more true for Republicans (at least in Senate races) but also applies to D-leaning voters in gubernatorial races (e.g. Democrats for Sununu). Not everyone is a hardcore partisan.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2021, 01:22:28 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.

Definitely. Sinema has lost the approval of a large part of the D base, but she still enjoys considerable crossover appeal among Republicans (even Republican leaders/strategists are heaping praise on her on a regular basis even though she is obviously extremely unlikely to cast the deciding vote against anything D leadership actually prioritizes). Sinema losing the primary would only reinforce the predictable "[candidate xyz] is too left-wing for AZ/does not represent the spirit of John McCain and Kyrsten Sinema/etc." lines of attack, and both Kelly and Sinema (unlike Warnock or Ossoff) owe their wins largely to moderates. Gallego would never get the crossover support from R-leaning voters that Sinema would have gotten and would depend on the top of the ticket/environment/mistakes of his R opponent much more than Sinema.

The polls I saw a few weeks ago showed that she was only marginally more popular among Republicans than Kelly and about the same among independents.
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2021, 01:28:32 PM »

There are not hundreds of thousands of voters in Arizona who would vote for a Republican against any Democrat but Sinema.

This is a straw man ó there donít have to be "hundreds of thousands" of these people to make the difference in a state as close as AZ.

Quote
Partisan Republicans are going to back someone who votes with McConnell >95% of the time over someone who might do it ~50% of the time.

Yes, and not every Republican in AZ is a partisan Republican? Sinema didnít win in 2018 because of "partisan Republicans," those people obviously supported McSally. Also, the vast majority of swing voters donít study these statistics/voting records and vote based on perception/branding rather than the candidates' actual ideology.

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The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.

No, because Democrats would never vote for a Republican Senate over Kyrsten Sinema. Remind me: When was the last time a Democrat actually lost a competitive Senate race because the D base didnít "come home" for them? This is far, far more common with R incumbents/candidates, Democrats usually donít demand these purity tests because they know whatís at stake.

If we're talking about the difference of Toss-Up and Likely/Safe D, then we're talking about at least several points, which would be more than 100,000 votes. A lot of the registered Republicans who voted for Sinema also voted for Biden, Kelly, and Hobbs, so it's not like these are voters who will exclusively vote for Sinema. And I'm not arguing that left-wingers will vote for a Republican over Sinema, I'm arguing that they might stay home or write someone in. Not many will do, but possibly enough to cost her the election if the race is very close. There are plenty examples of this, most notably the 2016 Presidential Election.

The small number of people who might cross over for Sinema would be offset by the (perhaps not so) small number of Democrats/left-wingers who would not vote for Sinema.

Proof?

If her approval ratings are this abysmal among Democrats, I have a hard time believing there won't be at least a small number who won't stomach voting for her in 2024.
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90s_kid
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2021, 01:37:27 PM »

The seat'll go red if 2024 is a second red wave, but in 2030, that's gonna go blue.  Ruben Gallego or Gabby Giffords would be the best D nominees.  The electable R bench in AZ is looking awful thin.  To think a very conservative senator like Jon Kyl once was re-elected with such ease.  McCain had the Maverick image in his early elections and he became very popular on TV around 2000, and then of course he ran for President.

Mark Kelly is an astronaut for cryin' out loud so that's major cred for a Senate run...we've had a few NASA guys in the Congress I believe since the Space Program started.

Trivia Q: How many astronauts have been either Democratic or Republican nominees for House or Senate (U.S. Congress)?  (i don't recall any in the blue waves of '06 and '18)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2021, 01:40:33 PM »

To be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised anymore to learn she won't run for reelection and pull a Jeff Flake. At least I think it's an underrated possibility.
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OneJ
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2021, 01:44:09 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I donít think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).

Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.

I mean the thing I feel as though you're forgetting is however the general election may go also depends on who the GOP nominates and last time I checked they don't have as good of a track record on choosing the best nominee as they could.
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« Reply #17 on: October 14, 2021, 01:45:35 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP.

You really think so? I think a damaged Sinema with baggage is an easier opponent for Republicans than a progressive Democrat with no baggage.

Right. It might depend to a degree on who the Democrat is; obviously a very radical DSA candidate might struggle too. But I think at this point the DSCC is not going to be on Sinema's side in the primary, and her likely primary opponent isn't going to be some far-lefty but rather someone not too different from Mark Kelly in political alignment. The Republicans are certainly no more likely to beat that candidate in a GE than Sinema.
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Keyanetta-wanter
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2021, 02:16:25 PM »

Run Ruben Run!
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2021, 03:01:30 PM »

Obviously Sinema is not needed for Democrats to hold this seat if the environment is favorable enough for them, but Sinema losing to a progressive challenger would be an absolute gift to the GOP. I donít think it will happen, though (AZ Democrats may not like Sinema, but they like Mitch McConnell even less).

Race would be Likely D with Sinema and Toss-up with Gallego/most non-Sinema Democrats.

Roll Eyes
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2021, 03:16:18 PM »

Lol Ruben Gallego said he won't challenge Sinema, LOL HER TETM IS UP 2024 NOT 2022, THATS GOOD NRWS IF WE KEEP TRIFECTA AND NIX THE FILIBUSTER ANYWAYS IN 2023/ SHE Will WIN ANY PRIMARY
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2021, 04:07:12 PM »

She'll be public enemy #1 among progressive Democrats to primary, since Manchin will probably retire and is in WV anyway. She acts like Jon Tester should and Jon Tester acts like she should, given their state's partisanship.

If she were to survive a primary, she would be very difficult to beat in a general, given that some suburban moderate Republican types like that she's obstructing the Democrats agenda. But most likely, given the fervor against her, I think she'll most likely be defeated in a primary or retire. I don't think Democrats will forget this, and she'll ultimately be defeated as she'll be cast as the reason Democrats didn't get anything/enough done before 2022. If she goes down, and it's a good year for Republicans, this could be a prime pickup after the three red states.   
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LVScreenssuck
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« Reply #22 on: October 14, 2021, 04:32:10 PM »

So copy pasting because my computer wonít let me just post an image, from 538:

Sinema is less popular than senators who lost primaries
Favorability of elected incumbent senators who lost primaries since 2000 among voters in their own party, compared with Kyrsten Sinemaís average favorable and unfavorable ratings among Democrats in three 2021 polls
SENATOR   STATE   PARTY   FAVORABLE   UNFAVORABLE   NET
Arlen Specter   PA   D   50%   33%   +17
Bob Smith   NH   R   45   30   +15
Joe Lieberman   CT   D   40   29   +11
Richard Lugar   IN   R   43   43   0
Kyrsten Sinema   AZ   D   40   45   -5
Ratings are from the most recent poll before each primary. Lisa Murkowski lost in a Republican primary in 2010 but is not listed here because we could find no preelection poll of her favorability ratings among Alaska Republicans.


Even if you take her most favorable pollster (OH), sheís basically running Arlen Spector numbers. Morning Consult says sheís doing worse than Lieberman and Civiqs/DFP says sheís the most unpopular Senator with her own party basically since weíve had reliable polling.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2021, 05:27:47 PM »

To be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised anymore to learn she won't run for reelection and pull a Jeff Flake. At least I think it's an underrated possibility.

I think this would be the best result for everybody. She spares herself humiliation by losing either the primary or general election, allows a new Democrat to take her place without a divisive primary occurring, and if they lose she can claim vindication that she could have beaten that Republican.

Now, personally, I want to see how Kelly does in 2022, or really how any statewide Democrat can do without Martha McSally being a presence, before I completely endorse her being primaried. I would still rather have her useless ass in the Senate than any Republican's reactionary ass.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2021, 08:32:33 PM »

This is all a problem of Sinema's own making.

She still has control of the situation as part of her own individual "political opportunity structure".

It's really simple.... be part of the solution and not part of the problem and help push through core elements of the Biden Build Back Better plan, which have overwhelming support even in Arizona.

THEN.... claim credit for a bill which provides free dental care to Seniors, Universal Pre-K, some free community college for struggling working and middle-class families, etc...

She's got her a$$ covered from the Deficit Hawks and can claim she "lowered the cost of the bill" but still keeping core elements intact.

If Sinema does something like that, she will likely not only successfully defend against a hypothetical DEM PRIM challenge (Which she would lose overwhelmingly if an election were to be held today), but also somehow manage to maintain an image of being "Independent" and fighting for Arizonians, etc...

Doesn't mean the Progressive DEM base won't forget, but should be enough to deflect and move forward with almost all being forgiven and so long as she can mobilize DEM / IND / MOD PUB voters to turnout, likely in very decent change for the GE.

Problem with Sinema, is now she is starting to look like a typical politician, and as a 1st term Senator appears to have a bit too much ego on the table plus looking very "cagy" on where she actually stands on just about everything. (Other than perhaps her support for Big Pharma, but hell there are tons of DEM & PUB politicians alike on the take there for policy change supported by 80%+ of the American Electorate).

If she continue this her optics are going to continue to suffer among ALL voters in AZ.

Up to her....

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