Morning Consult national GOP primary poll: Trump 47% Pence 13% DeSantis 12% Trump Jr. 6%

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national GOP primary poll, conducted Oct. 8-11:

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/13/trump-2024-pence-desantis-polling/

Trump 47%
Pence 13%
DeSantis 12%
Trump Jr. 6%
Haley 3%
Rubio 3%
Romney 3%
Cruz 3%
L. Cheney 2%

Cotton, Hawley, Hogan, Noem, Pompeo, Rick Scott, and Tim Scott were all included as options as well, and all got 0-1%.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm a little surprised Trump is only at 47%. This might indicate a significant percentage of Republicans who don't want him to run again, but can't decide on who the best candidate is to to run against him.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I'm a little surprised Trump is only at 47%. This might indicate a significant percentage of Republicans who don't want him to run again, but can't decide on who the best candidate is to to run against him.

6% said Trump jr., we can assume those are Trump voters.

[DaleCooper]

I expect Trump to face a heated and bitter primary challenge in 2024. However, this will not come from the former GOP establishment. The people who believe Trump is truly invulnerable, and not just heavily favored (which I believe him to be), are only viewing it through the lens of a Mitt Romney primary challenge. If there is strong opposition to Trump it will come from the populist right who want someone younger, more energetic, and more in-touch with what the voters want to hear. If someone comes along and runs a GOP campaign about our need to celebrate "Real America", stop outsourcing, build the wall for real this time, and stand up to China, then I think Trump will really struggle. He's old, he's incoherent, and he's more out-of-touch than he's ever been. I'm not saying he'll lose the primary, but if he goes into 2023-24 doing nothing but whining about how mean everyone was to him several years ago, then he's making himself incredibly vulnerable to a Trumpist primary challenger. Again, I don't think he would lose, but it could severely damage his standing amongst his own voters and independents, much the same way Hillary's handling of the 2016 primary dramatically hurt her credibility on the left and center. 

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I expect Trump to face a heated and bitter primary challenge in 2024. However, this will not come from the former GOP establishment. The people who believe Trump is truly invulnerable, and not just heavily favored (which I believe him to be), are only viewing it through the lens of a Mitt Romney primary challenge. If there is strong opposition to Trump it will come from the populist right who want someone younger, more energetic, and more in-touch with what the voters want to hear. If someone comes along and runs a GOP campaign about our need to celebrate "Real America", stop outsourcing, build the wall for real this time, and stand up to China, then I think Trump will really struggle. He's old, he's incoherent, and he's more out-of-touch than he's ever been. I'm not saying he'll lose the primary, but if he goes into 2023-24 doing nothing but whining about how mean everyone was to him several years ago, then he's making himself incredibly vulnerable to a Trumpist primary challenger. Again, I don't think he would lose, but it could severely damage his standing amongst his own voters and independents, much the same way Hillary's handling of the 2016 primary dramatically hurt her credibility on the left and center. 

LMAO no Trumpist would DARE primary Trump.

[DaleCooper]

I expect Trump to face a heated and bitter primary challenge in 2024. However, this will not come from the former GOP establishment. The people who believe Trump is truly invulnerable, and not just heavily favored (which I believe him to be), are only viewing it through the lens of a Mitt Romney primary challenge. If there is strong opposition to Trump it will come from the populist right who want someone younger, more energetic, and more in-touch with what the voters want to hear. If someone comes along and runs a GOP campaign about our need to celebrate "Real America", stop outsourcing, build the wall for real this time, and stand up to China, then I think Trump will really struggle. He's old, he's incoherent, and he's more out-of-touch than he's ever been. I'm not saying he'll lose the primary, but if he goes into 2023-24 doing nothing but whining about how mean everyone was to him several years ago, then he's making himself incredibly vulnerable to a Trumpist primary challenger. Again, I don't think he would lose, but it could severely damage his standing amongst his own voters and independents, much the same way Hillary's handling of the 2016 primary dramatically hurt her credibility on the left and center. 

LMAO no Trumpist would DARE primary Trump.

Of course. Every aspiring Mr./Madame President in the GOP is going to put their ambitions on hold for the next decade in order to cede the 2024 nominee to Trump and, if he wins, the 2028 nomination to his VP. It's by all means possible that I'm completely wrong, but I don't understand why this hypothetical is infinitely more unrealistic than the notion that the political landscape won't change one iota over the next three years.