Vosem
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Posts: 15,618
Political Matrix E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: October 13, 2021, 11:50:31 PM » |
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The ones I remember:
2020: Collins not just winning, but winning by 9 points 2018: Scott beating Nelson 2016: none were that surprising, but I guess Hassan winning even though McGinty/Feingold, who polled better, lost 2014: Tillis beating Hagan 2012: Heitkamp beating Berg -- most surprising result since I started paying attention 2010: Reid not just winning, but winning by 6 points 2008: none were that surprising, but Stevens coming as close as he did -- he was expected to lose by 20 but came within a point
These were the most surprising on Election Night (or during Election Week for a few of them; AK-Sen 2008 in particular wasn't decided for a few days). For earlier cycles, I can do what would've been most surprising at the start of the cycle, but many of the wackiest results of the 2010s that no one would've predicted a year earlier (like MO-Sen 2012, or either the AL or MA special elections) were accurately forecasted by polling.
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