October 2021: Which party wins the presidency?

[Sir Mohamed]

Instead of polling individuals, forget about Biden and Trump in particular: Which party do you expect to win the WH in 2024?

I voted Dem because I just think it's more likely. Still 30-35% chance the GOP takes back the WH.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

[EastwoodS]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

uh no..actually.
You keep forgetting polls underestimate Republicans all the time.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

uh no..actually.
You keep forgetting polls underestimate Republicans all the time.

Uh yeah that’s the thing Biden’s approval average is 44% this poll says 37%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

uh no..actually.
You keep forgetting polls underestimate Republicans all the time.

Uh yeah that’s the thing Biden’s approval average is 44% this poll says 37%

You are looking at polls a yr before the Election D's are plus 5 on CGB, let we remind you that states are Less Partisan in Midterms because D's don't need 270 to win the Election, that's why you can get SPL voting  Udall, Quinn and D's whom lost to Christie lost, b

Whitmer or Mills can lose as well and we can win FL but we have a Still yr

[MR DARK BRANDON]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

uh no..actually.
You keep forgetting polls underestimate Republicans all the time.

Uh yeah that’s the thing Biden’s approval average is 44% this poll says 37%

You are looking at polls a yr before the Election D's are plus 5 on CGB, let we remind you that states are Less Partisan in Midterms because D's don't need 270 to win the Election, that's why you can get SPL voting  Udall, Quinn and D's whom lost to Christie lost, b

Whitmer or Mills can lose as well and we can win FL but we have a Still yr

I’m gonna miss MR. KANYE WEST 😞😞😞😞😞

[Ferguson97]

I still think Democrats, but my confidence has somewhat declined.

[SnowLabrador]

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

[President Johnson]

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

That's beyond delusional to assume. America is way too polarized for that to happen. Not even Trump dropped below mid/high 30s. Biden's actual floor for approval rating probably around 40% or slightly less. His floor for a national popular vote is around 48%. Each Democrat managed to receive at least 48% since 1992. Obviously you can lose the Electoral College with that, or even with 50% if the margin is close enough.

[Xing]

I dunno, I thought Biden was a shoo-in for 400+ EV back when he had an approval rating above 50%, since I didn't see any possible way that could change, but now that the unthinkable has happened and his approvals are below 50%, he's definitely going to get crushed in 2024, 150 EV tops. I mean, how could his approvals possibly change again at some point in the next three years?

Rating changes:
VA-GOV 2021: Tilt D -> Titanium R
2022 Midterms: 2002 Redux -> Worse for Democrats than 1994 or 2010
2024-PRES: Titanium D -> Safe R
Senate control: Likely D -> Permanent R control
Chances of sky falling within the next year: 0% -> 75%

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

Lol

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is tied in a poll where he has 37 approval Dems will win the WH

uh no..actually.
You keep forgetting polls underestimate Republicans all the time.

When Trump is on the ballot, yes.  Otherwise, the evidence is very mixed.  CA-Recall 2021, GA-SEN runoffs 2021, KY/LA/MS 2019, and VA 2017 all underestimated D's.  2018 polling underestimated R's in the Midwest and Florida and underestimated D's in the Southwest.  This all cancelled pretty well, so 2018 polling looked accurate nationwide.

[jamestroll]

Biden narrowly but Virginia will be a highly contested state that the R's will narrowly lose.

[Mr.Phips]

Way too early.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans would win a presidential election if it were held today. It's not being held today though, it's being held over 1000 days away. I don't even begin to assess presidential election odds until after the midterm elections.

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

You're right, polarization is asymmetric. Democrats are far more uniform and stubborn as a voting block than Republicans. They wouldn't be able to get a Doug Jones type of character to win in a deep blue state even if the nominee was the leftist version of Roy Moore. Democrats naturally have a higher floor, there are more registered Dems in the country at large, and without actually swinging the electorate more Democratic, they've accumulated massive institutional power in the media, tech, academia, the entertainment industry, and big businesses (yes, the realignment is real) propping them up and making Dems and their positions seem like they're the majority, even if they're not. Joe Biden's hard floor doesn't come anywhere close to 30, it's well above that. There's a reason you haven't seen Biden drop to Trump 2017 levels yet (and probably won't).

[Xing]

Republicans would win a presidential election if it were held today. It's not being held today though, it's being held over 1000 days away. I don't even begin to assess presidential election odds until after the midterm elections.

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

You're right, polarization is asymmetric. Democrats are far more uniform and stubborn as a voting block than Republicans. They wouldn't be able to get a Doug Jones type of character to win in a deep blue state even if the nominee was the leftist version of Roy Moore. Democrats naturally have a higher floor, there are more registered Dems in the country at large, and without actually swinging the electorate more Democratic, they've accumulated massive institutional power in the media, tech, academia, the entertainment industry, and big businesses (yes, the realignment is real) propping them up and making Dems and their positions seem like they're the majority, even if they're not. Joe Biden's hard floor doesn't come anywhere close to 30, it's well above that. There's a reason you haven't seen Biden drop to Trump 2017 levels yet (and probably won't).

Then why is it that several blue states re-elected Republican Governors in enormous landslides, while Democrats only just squeaked by in a couple of red or Republican-leaning states, even in a great environment for them? Why is it that the only state to vote differently for Senate and President elected a Republican? Why is it that way more Republicans won in Biden districts than Democrats in Trump districts? Doug Jones? He served for a whole three years, only to get Blanched and only outrun Biden by a few points. Scott Brown won against someone who wasn't a pedophile in a good parallel to Alabama, and only lost by 8 in 2012, outrunning Romney by way more. And if we're going to mention Manchin/Tester/Brown, they had to do much more than just posture as moderates to win their respective elections, and odds are they're all gone in 2024. Plenty of Republicans represent swing states as if they represent TX-13, and then just appear less "vulgar" than Trump and overperform him easily. Even if Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear bent over backwards constantly to placate Republicans, they couldn't dream of cracking 60% in 2022/2023. Odds are they'd lose, whereas even fake moderates like Hogan and Sununu get swaths of Democratic voters to vote for them. It's a real possibility that we could have 7 or 8 blue state Republicans and no red state Democrats after 2024.

Tech companies, big businesses, and the media are not "Democratic-friendly" (this is exactly what Republicans want people to believe, while most Republican politicians happily get their pockets filled by the very elites they claim to hate. Which party gave enormous tax cuts to the wealthy and to large corporations again?), they care exclusively about their own wealth, and they'd have happily donned MAGA hats if Sanders had won the nomination, since they'd view him as much more of a threat than Trump. Academia has always been left-leaning (no re-alignment here) for many reasons, one of which being the Republican Party embracing and exploiting anti-intellectualism, which I would say is way worse than even blindly trusting experts.

And lastly, love Biden or hate him, but he is not at all comparable to Trump. He hasn't made anywhere near the type of inflammatory remarks that Trump has made, attempts to reform the government to only include loyalists, no claims that he'll only accept results that favor him, and he hasn't embraced the looniest people on his side in any way at all, much like Trump did. The fact that Biden's approvals are even close to as bad as Trump's at this time just shows how much polarization favors Republicans. It would be like President Kanye West (D) or Mark Zuckerberg (D) having comparable favorables to President John Kasich (R).

Under neutral conditions, it's been shown time and time again that Democrats are held to higher standards than Republicans (even if those standards aren't anywhere near high enough), but sure, go on about how Democrats are the stubborn "elitist" ones.

[_.]

Democrats naturally have a higher floor, there are more registered Dems in the country at large, and without actually swinging the electorate more Democratic, they've accumulated massive institutional power in the media, tech, academia, the entertainment industry, and big businesses

Tech companies, big businesses, and the media are not "Democratic-friendly" (this is exactly what Republicans want people to believe, while most Republican politicians happily get their pockets filled by the very elites they claim to hate. Which party gave enormous tax cuts to the wealthy and to large corporations again?), they care exclusively about their own wealth, and they'd have happily donned MAGA hats if Sanders had won the nomination, since they'd view him as much more of a threat than Trump. Academia has always been left-leaning (no re-alignment here) for many reasons, one of which being the Republican Party embracing and exploiting anti-intellectualism, which I would say is way worse than even blindly trusting experts.

Both of you are correct

The bigwig media elites love Democratic social policies and Republican* economic policies, both of which they like because of their absolute unchecked hedonism and greed to do whatever they want with zero consequences.

* Also Neoliberal Democrats like Bloomberg and Clinton

If it came down to Trump vs. Bernie, it'd honestly be interesting to see the way they swing.
A lot of them would probably support Trump because he's good for their ratings and doesn't attack their wealth reserves.

[brucejoel99]

Republicans would win a presidential election if it were held today. It's not being held today though, it's being held over 1000 days away. I don't even begin to assess presidential election odds until after the midterm elections.

Since I expect Biden's approval rating to be in the 30s, maybe even the 20s, by 2024, the GOP. And before you tell me "MUH POLARIZATION", remember that the polarization is asymmetric.

You're right, polarization is asymmetric. Democrats are far more uniform and stubborn as a voting block than Republicans. They wouldn't be able to get a Doug Jones type of character to win in a deep blue state even if the nominee was the leftist version of Roy Moore. Democrats naturally have a higher floor, there are more registered Dems in the country at large, and without actually swinging the electorate more Democratic, they've accumulated massive institutional power in the media, tech, academia, the entertainment industry, and big businesses (yes, the realignment is real) propping them up and making Dems and their positions seem like they're the majority, even if they're not. Joe Biden's hard floor doesn't come anywhere close to 30, it's well above that. There's a reason you haven't seen Biden drop to Trump 2017 levels yet (and probably won't).

Then why is it that several blue states re-elected Republican Governors in enormous landslides, while Democrats only just squeaked by in a couple of red or Republican-leaning states, even in a great environment for them? Why is it that the only state to vote differently for Senate and President elected a Republican? Why is it that way more Republicans won in Biden districts than Democrats in Trump districts? Doug Jones? He served for a whole three years, only to get Blanched and only outrun Biden by a few points. Scott Brown won against someone who wasn't a pedophile in a good parallel to Alabama, and only lost by 8 in 2012, outrunning Romney by way more. And if we're going to mention Manchin/Tester/Brown, they had to do much more than just posture as moderates to win their respective elections, and odds are they're all gone in 2024. Plenty of Republicans represent swing states as if they represent TX-13, and then just appear less "vulgar" than Trump and overperform him easily. Even if Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear bent over backwards constantly to placate Republicans, they couldn't dream of cracking 60% in 2022/2023. Odds are they'd lose, whereas even fake moderates like Hogan and Sununu get swaths of Democratic voters to vote for them. It's a real possibility that we could have 7 or 8 blue state Republicans and no red state Democrats after 2024.

Tech companies, big businesses, and the media are not "Democratic-friendly" (this is exactly what Republicans want people to believe, while most Republican politicians happily get their pockets filled by the very elites they claim to hate. Which party gave enormous tax cuts to the wealthy and to large corporations again?), they care exclusively about their own wealth, and they'd have happily donned MAGA hats if Sanders had won the nomination, since they'd view him as much more of a threat than Trump. Academia has always been left-leaning (no re-alignment here) for many reasons, one of which being the Republican Party embracing and exploiting anti-intellectualism, which I would say is way worse than even blindly trusting experts.

And lastly, love Biden or hate him, but he is not at all comparable to Trump. He hasn't made anywhere near the type of inflammatory remarks that Trump has made, attempts to reform the government to only include loyalists, no claims that he'll only accept results that favor him, and he hasn't embraced the looniest people on his side in any way at all, much like Trump did. The fact that Biden's approvals are even close to as bad as Trump's at this time just shows how much polarization favors Republicans. It would be like President Kanye West (D) or Mark Zuckerberg (D) having comparable favorables to President John Kasich (R).

Under neutral conditions, it's been shown time and time again that Democrats are held to higher standards than Republicans (even if those standards aren't anywhere near high enough), but sure, go on about how Democrats are the stubborn "elitist" ones.

Dare I say that if nobody knew the posting history of ElectionsGuy, of all posters, they might be convinced that your post here would result in him actually conceding for once in his life that he's just factually, objectively wrong about something.

[MABA 2020]

Feeling very pessimistic at the moment so I'm gonna say the Republicans will win.