Iberville and St. James are all more likely flips of course, as is probably Jefferson, but in the medium term an interesting potential flip opportunity is St. Bernard Parish, which saw a massive jump in Black percentage, going from around 18% Black to 28% Black. The parish directly borders the Lower 9th ward, and as the city continues to gentrify it seems to be a place where many poorer Black residents are moving.
that seems to be a theme with places that flip blue, that they're growing... St Bernard was the fastest growing parish in LA over the past 10 years
but it's not only the "black flight", whites are moving in who are also likely to vote Democrat in Arabi. Honestly it's not the poorer blacks who are coming here, it's more middle class black people.
i think from 2008 to 2020, the raw number of Democrat votes increased by like 78%, from 3491 to 6151, while Republicans increased by only 15%, from 9643 to 11179.
We did vote Democrat for governor John Bel Edwards twice... we had a lot of JBE-Trump voters
