In 2020 no Trump parish was decided by single digits whereas two Biden parishes (Iberville and St James) were decided by under 5 points (my threshold for competitivity). So I think it's safe to say no county will flip Democratic, but Iberville and St James both could. They both trended rightward in 2016 and swung rightward in 2020. Iberville went Democratic by 3.7% while St James went non-forum blue by 4.4%. On the other hand I could see both counties remaning static or even shifting slightly leftward post-Trump. So, my answer is maybe. I wouldn't be that surprised if LA did, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Iberville or St James finally flipped. What I find interesting is how Skill and Chance and GregTheGreat both considered Iberville but not St James even though both swung rightward in 2020 (in fact, St James swung more to the right in 2020 than Iberville) and St James only voted to the left of Iberville by 0.7%.
I can agree with this. I'd lean slightly in favor of Louisiana having the same map in 2024 but it's very possible one or both of these counties could flip, especially if it's a favorable year for the GOP.
