Will Louisiana have the same Parish map for the 5th time in a row?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 27, 2021, 08:13:07 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Will Louisiana have the same Parish map for the 5th time in a row?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Will Louisiana have the same Parish map for the 5th time in a row?  (Read 360 times)
Leroy McPherson fan
Leroymcphersonfan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 12, 2021, 02:51:49 PM »

Or will a Parish finally flip in 2024?
Logged
Skill and Chance
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,948
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 03:30:34 PM »

Iberville is ready to flip R if R's do at least as well nationally next time.  Jefferson will eventually flip D, but it's moving slowly enough that 2024 is probably too soon even in a big national win.
Logged
YOUNGKIN FOR VIRGINIA
GregTheGreat657
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,565
United States


Political Matrix
E: 3.16, S: 0.61

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2021, 03:31:20 PM »

Probably. The only parish I could see flipping is Iberville
Logged
CentristRepublican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,033
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2021, 01:01:17 PM »

In 2020 no Trump parish was decided by single digits whereas two Biden parishes (Iberville and St James) were decided by under 5 points (my threshold for competitivity). So I think it's safe to say no county will flip Democratic, but Iberville and St James both could. They both trended rightward in 2016 and swung rightward in 2020. Iberville went Democratic by 3.7% while St James went non-forum blue by 4.4%. On the other hand I could see both counties remaning static or even shifting slightly leftward post-Trump. So, my answer is maybe. I wouldn't be that surprised if LA did, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Iberville or St James finally flipped. What I find interesting is how Skill and Chance and GregTheGreat both considered Iberville but not St James even though both swung rightward in 2020 (in fact, St James swung more to the right in 2020 than Iberville) and St James only voted to the left of Iberville by 0.7%.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,508
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 13, 2021, 09:59:57 PM »

In 2020 no Trump parish was decided by single digits whereas two Biden parishes (Iberville and St James) were decided by under 5 points (my threshold for competitivity). So I think it's safe to say no county will flip Democratic, but Iberville and St James both could. They both trended rightward in 2016 and swung rightward in 2020. Iberville went Democratic by 3.7% while St James went non-forum blue by 4.4%. On the other hand I could see both counties remaning static or even shifting slightly leftward post-Trump. So, my answer is maybe. I wouldn't be that surprised if LA did, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Iberville or St James finally flipped. What I find interesting is how Skill and Chance and GregTheGreat both considered Iberville but not St James even though both swung rightward in 2020 (in fact, St James swung more to the right in 2020 than Iberville) and St James only voted to the left of Iberville by 0.7%.

I can agree with this. I'd lean slightly in favor of Louisiana having the same map in 2024 but it's very possible one or both of these counties could flip, especially if it's a favorable year for the GOP.
Logged
CentristRepublican
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,033
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2021, 12:47:10 AM »

In 2020 no Trump parish was decided by single digits whereas two Biden parishes (Iberville and St James) were decided by under 5 points (my threshold for competitivity). So I think it's safe to say no county will flip Democratic, but Iberville and St James both could. They both trended rightward in 2016 and swung rightward in 2020. Iberville went Democratic by 3.7% while St James went non-forum blue by 4.4%. On the other hand I could see both counties remaning static or even shifting slightly leftward post-Trump. So, my answer is maybe. I wouldn't be that surprised if LA did, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Iberville or St James finally flipped. What I find interesting is how Skill and Chance and GregTheGreat both considered Iberville but not St James even though both swung rightward in 2020 (in fact, St James swung more to the right in 2020 than Iberville) and St James only voted to the left of Iberville by 0.7%.

I can agree with this. I'd lean slightly in favor of Louisiana having the same map in 2024 but it's very possible one or both of these counties could flip, especially if it's a favorable year for the GOP.

Yeah, which is why I think the answer is that it's probably something like 65-35, with a 65% chance of it (it being the same map as 2020) occuring. So it's unlikely but not impossible that St James and/or Iberville flip. I don't think any other parish will come close to flipping, however.
Logged
Sol
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,448
Pakistan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2021, 12:53:11 PM »

Iberville and St. James are all more likely flips of course, as is probably Jefferson, but in the medium term an interesting potential flip opportunity is St. Bernard Parish, which saw a massive jump in Black percentage, going from around 18% Black to 28% Black. The parish directly borders the Lower 9th ward, and as the city continues to gentrify it seems to be a place where many poorer Black residents are moving.
Logged
chalmetteowl
Rookie
**
Posts: 67
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2021, 10:14:48 PM »

Iberville and St. James are all more likely flips of course, as is probably Jefferson, but in the medium term an interesting potential flip opportunity is St. Bernard Parish, which saw a massive jump in Black percentage, going from around 18% Black to 28% Black. The parish directly borders the Lower 9th ward, and as the city continues to gentrify it seems to be a place where many poorer Black residents are moving.

that seems to be a theme with places that flip blue, that they're growing... St Bernard was the fastest growing parish in LA over the past 10 years

but it's not only the "black flight", whites are moving in who are also likely to vote Democrat in Arabi. Honestly it's not the poorer blacks who are coming here, it's more middle class black people.

i think from 2008 to 2020, the raw number of Democrat votes increased by like 78%, from 3491 to 6151, while Republicans increased by only 15%, from 9643 to 11179.

We did vote Democrat for governor John Bel Edwards twice... we had a lot of JBE-Trump voters
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 13 queries.