Rate Anoka County
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Builder Refused
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« on: October 12, 2021, 04:31:49 AM »

Now I have no idea how the Minneapolis St Paul area is organized. What’s going on in the general 7 county area? Growth patterns, age, ethnicity, education. Why is Anoka the biggest Rep county
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ERM64man
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« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 03:53:51 PM »

Pure tossup.
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LiberalDem19
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« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2021, 05:30:51 PM »

The thing about Anoka is the southern third is pretty DFL and the northern third is pretty Republican. They offset each other quite a bit and then it comes down to the middle third of the county, which is more split. I'd still say it leans GOP, but it depends where WWC people go. It's a bit unique from the rest of the metro in how working class it is (unlike Carver or Hennepin where the suburbs can be more white collar)
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TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2021, 05:36:30 PM »

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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2021, 07:00:54 PM »

Titanium Tilt R county in Titanium Likely D state
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beesley
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2021, 04:26:50 AM »

Pure Tossup at this point. Minnesota is Safe D though.
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Chips
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2021, 08:56:22 AM »

Toss-up with a slight R advantage, much like 2020.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2021, 09:28:20 AM »

Tilt R
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BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2021, 03:54:23 PM »

The main thing to take into account about it is that the Democratic part of it isn't really growing much simply because it can't, those small suburbs in the southern part are already fully developed and there's not really any place to build more housing. However even the Republican areas of it had a nasty swing against Trump...but whether this is part of a permanent trend or just a one-time occurrence remains to be seen. It is safe to say that the people moving to the northern part of it aren't as Republican as they were 10 years ago of course and are likely more educated than was traditionally the case, this used to be thought of as a pretty blue collar county. (And still is relatively speaking, which is why it doesn't vote like Dakota or Washington counties.)

Based on that sort of ambiguity I can't rate it anything other than pure tossup.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2021, 10:49:37 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2021, 10:58:23 PM by neostassenite31 »

Lean to Likely R.

Anoka County is a pretty weird in terms of its demographics. Unlike newly "suburbanized" counties like Scott and Carver, most of the southern to central portions of this county were already developed by the 1980s and 1990s.

This place historically has had a significant manufacturing presence in sectors such as medical device production (which Minnesota is well known for), machine tools, and plastics, with bedroom communities full of blue-collar workers similar to other exurban counties like Wright and Sherburne. This is especially true in central and northern portions of Anoka County.

The southern tip of Anoka County "dips" into the Twins Cities core with dense suburban precincts in Columbia Heights and southern Fridley. More secular, white-collar commuters and a higher minority population, which is fairly typical for most precincts in the TC core, characterize this section of the County.

On net the white non-college segment still prevails: Anoka county is about 59% white non-college (the highest share of all seven metro counties). Historically, the DFL's blue collar and union strength allowed them to win Anoka County throughout much of the latter half of the 20th century. In the Trump era, two competing trends largely cancelled each other out: 1). the exodus of white non-college workers from D to R, as exemplified by the rightward shift from 2012 to 2016; 2). D favoring population growth in the southern portions of the county + exodus of white college voters from R to D, as exemplified by the leftward shift from 2016 to 2020.          

I stand by my previous rating. Would note that both cities in the southern "tip": Columbia Heights (+11%) and Fridley (+9%) grew by percentages similar to the Twin Cities at-large (+10%).

The story for most of the suburbs around MSP is essentially that they're all growing by moderately strong numbers relative to the rest of the Midwest, but the total raw white population across these suburbs has actually decreased from 10 years ago and essentially all of the growth is from a substantially larger minority population. This likely also means that a large portion of the suburban swing in the MSP region toward the Dems over the past decade is irreversible (though not fatally so for the GOP statewide). I believe this is the assessment of the state parties here right now as well
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