Most likely Clinton/Trump/Dem '24 county?
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Most likely Clinton/Trump/Dem '24 county?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: -skip-
#1
Alamosa, CO		  
#2
Burke, GA		  
#3
Scotland, NC		  
#4
Lorain, OH		  
#5
Mahoning, OH		  
#6
Clarendon, SC		  
#7
Dillon, SC		  
#8
Frio, TX		  
#9
Jim Wells, TX		  
#10
Kenedy, TX		  
#11
Kleberg, TX		  
#12
La Salle, TX		  
#13
Reeves, TX		  
#14
Val Verde, TX		  
#15
Zapata, TX		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 14

Author Topic: Most likely Clinton/Trump/Dem '24 county?  (Read 640 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: October 11, 2021, 09:17:57 PM »
Which of the counties that flipped to Trump in 2020 is the most likely to flip back to the Democrats in 2024? This doesn't necessarily think you mean one of them is going to flip, simply which one is relatively more likely than the others.

I would say Kleberg, since Trump only narrowly won it, and it didn't trend as strongly as some of the other counties in the region in Texas.
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Leroy McPherson fan
Leroymcphersonfan
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2021, 09:25:34 PM »
None of them.
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Vice President Christian Man
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2021, 10:54:39 PM »
Clarendon SC. It's in the blue-trending sun belt and voted for him by <1%. I imagine it'll be close, but it's more likely than any of the other ones. RGV is rapidly trending red at WV levels and I doubt any county in that area will flip along with the one in Colorado. The Ohio ones are also unlikely to flip, as it's a heavily WWC area irritated by the effects of automation and globalism, while the other SC county voted for Trump by a bigger margin. The area with the NC county has been trending right since at least The Clinton era. and Trump's agreement with the Lumbee tribe in that nearby area likely gave it a regional boost which was enough to push him over the top.

Burke County Georgia is another candidate, but it went the opposite direction as Georgia so I'm less confident.
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