Rate GA-SEN with this matchup
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Author Topic: Rate GA-SEN with this matchup  (Read 747 times)
GregTheGreat657
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« on: October 11, 2021, 05:14:13 PM »

Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (D)

My prediction: Walker + 0.6
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2021, 05:39:03 PM »

If Herschel Walker were a Democrat, I think Warnock would win by a decent margin thanks to incumbency advantage.

In all seriousness, the margin sounds reasonable. I tend to agree that Walker will win, but not by much.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2021, 05:45:48 PM »

Warnock by 1-2 points.

Herschel Walker is far weaker than the average Republican candidate. He needs to at least force the race into a runoff, but even then, Warnock can win easily if Democrats already have the majority, if Warnock's win will give Democrats the majority, or if Warnock winning won't matter at all because Democrats will be deep in the minority.

I don't see a path to victory for Walker, even in an R wave.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2021, 05:59:39 PM »

Georgia is Titanium Tilt D, candidates don't matter.
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2021, 06:26:25 PM »

Warnock 50-49 w/o a runoff
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2021, 06:27:32 PM »

Put me in the camp that thinks it'll be closer than some expect. The two groups to watch out for:

  • Totally-not-racist white former-GOP suburbrons whose worst nightmare is being called 'racist' but who still want GOP candidates/divided govt and who had an easy out voting for Perdue/Warnock in the runoff who can now continue to say they voted for "a black one" in a black-on-black contest
  • Black men - who have been shifting away from Democrats at an alarming rate post-2014 - who when faced with the political psychology of two major black authority figures/tropes ("athlete" versus "preacher") choose the former because it's the more "masculine" option, and also don't have to make the "black versus white" decision in such a contest

    The only prediction I'm willing to make right now is that GA's top-ticket races in the aggregate will be ~2 points to the right of the GCB margin.
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    SnowLabrador
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    « Reply #6 on: October 11, 2021, 07:05:01 PM »

    Warnock's not going to win if Georgia votes 2 points to the right of the GCB.
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    Progressive Pessimist
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    « Reply #7 on: October 11, 2021, 07:06:05 PM »

    Walker may be a pick that Georgia Republicans are very excited about, but he is already demonstrating that he comes with a lot of baggage that a Georgia general election electorate may not ignore. That plus Warnock's incumbency and Georgia's trends make me want to consider this a tilt D election for now. It would be lean D if I trusted the state's electoral system more.
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    Leroy McPherson fan
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    « Reply #8 on: October 11, 2021, 07:49:24 PM »

    Walker will win. Though I’m probably going to vote for Kelvin King in the primary.
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    Xing
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    « Reply #9 on: October 11, 2021, 09:06:20 PM »

    Tilt D. Not impossible for Walker to win, but this is probably the last chance Republicans have to beat Warnock, and Walker winning could easily end up being a six-year loan.
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    MATTROSE94
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    « Reply #10 on: October 11, 2021, 09:52:18 PM »

    Herschel Walker by a narrow margin in the runoff. Still, Herschel Walker will probably only be a six year or twelve year loan and could be defeated by Raphael Warnock in a rematch in 2028 or 2034 assuming that Donald Trump doesn’t outlaw the Democratic Party by then.
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    GALeftist
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    « Reply #11 on: October 11, 2021, 10:02:23 PM »

    Tilt D, Walker strikes me as a candidate who would be extremely unappealing to the exact voters he really needs to win given his past. I think his best shot is a red wave year and/or an overperformance with black men, although I don't want to play up that last point too much as it seems pretty unlikely to me (red wave is *far* more likely).
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    Vice President Christian Man
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    « Reply #12 on: October 12, 2021, 12:40:17 PM »

    Tilt R, Walker wins by .8.
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    Del Tachi
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    « Reply #13 on: October 12, 2021, 12:44:13 PM »

    Walker wins 50-49 without a runoff, with Kemp slighting outrunning him to best Abrams 51-48.
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    MT Treasurer
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    « Reply #14 on: October 12, 2021, 01:24:14 PM »

    Walker has a path, but (a) he has to avoid a ruonff, (b) his path involves activating a low-propensity, less 'political', largely non-college-educated, usually more D-leaning base of (predominantly male) voters more so than converting ex-GOP suburbanites, and (c) he’ll need a very favorable environment in which Republicans have already won AZ and NV and their prospects are no worse than 50/50 (assuming one of Sununu/Ayotte runs) in NH.

    It can be done (race will certainly be close) but if he wins, it will be a fairly bad night for Democrats.
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    Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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    « Reply #15 on: October 12, 2021, 01:24:32 PM »

    Walker isn't winning he is Doomed Blk voters did t vote for Elder they're not falling fir Walker and Trump keeps lying about an Election he lost

    Just, like athletes and Black R politicians except for Kanye West and Black R and B artists, even Lebron Jane's and Jordan don't do enough for Blk people thats why no one went to Wizards to play with Jordan after Pippen abd Rodman retired, Jordan gambled on games
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    Horus
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    « Reply #16 on: October 12, 2021, 02:21:23 PM »

    Black men are unequivocally shifting towards the GOP, but the trend is likely to be more muted here in GA for two reasons, 1. Black men here are more likely to be college educated/UMC and 2. Black men here are more likely to be gay or bisexual. Between that and the constant migration from northern center leftists, I think Warnock narrowly holds on unless it's a 2010 style wave.

    The Dems problem with Black men is much more alarming for their chances in the rust belt. A very narrow shift away from them could put Wisconsin and Michigan out of play for some time.
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    Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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    « Reply #17 on: October 12, 2021, 05:17:17 PM »
    « Edited: October 12, 2021, 05:20:42 PM by Mr. Kanye West »

    Black men are unequivocally shifting towards the GOP, but the trend is likely to be more muted here in GA for two reasons, 1. Black men here are more likely to be college educated/UMC and 2. Black men here are more likely to be gay or bisexual. Between that and the constant migration from northern center leftists, I think Warnock narrowly holds on unless it's a 2010 style wave.

    The Dems problem with Black men is much more alarming for their chances in the rust belt. A very narrow shift away from them could put Wisconsin and Michigan out of play for some time.


    No weren't nodid you get the NEMO THAT TRUMP LOST THE NPVI 80M to 74M and 77% of poverty, homeless and Prison population are LATINO'S ABD AFRO AMERICAN MEN


    I want you to go to pbower2A Approvalls and share that Larry Elder list by a Landslide Latinos and BLK men are in shelters on Skid Row, can ting overwhelming for Gavin Newsom

    We support R and B artist Kanye West the only Conservative we like we're not gonna vote for Elder or Walker


    How many Blk users are on the Forum have blue avatars, I am a Green Avatar, thanks but no thnks
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    Ferguson97
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    « Reply #18 on: October 13, 2021, 03:21:25 PM »

    Tilt D
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