Do you think the GOP will flip the Senate?

[GregTheGreat657]

Personally, I think the Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate in 2022 as of right now

[Xing]

I'd rate the Senate Lean R for now. It's more likely than not that they flip it, but Democrats have a narrow path to holding the Senate, so it's not as much of a lost cause for them as the House.

[Schiff for Senate]

It could go either way, but for now I'd give the GOP an edge, if for no other reason than midterms usually being bad for the incumbent president's party (though this evaded both Clinton and Bush and the environment today is quite polarized). For the poll, I vote unsure.

[Mr.Phips]

Yes.  Democrats very likely need something like a D+2 national environment to not lose one of NV, GA, and AZ (let alone picking up WI and PA). 

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Well, I can’t think of any races where the Republican is favored, excepting Sununu in NH. So I’m saying tentative no.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes.  Democrats very likely need something like a D+2 national environment to not lose one of NV, GA, and AZ (let alone picking up WI and PA). 

The national environment will probably be R+5 or so. If that's the case, the Senate is going to be 54-46 R after these elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No WI and PA are sure to flip and OH, FL and NC are wave insurance

Hassan trails the most endangered Dem with SUNUNU, but Rs thinking that they have OH, NC and FL in the bag,  is not true, we won OH, FL in 2012/ in the Great Recession and we are in a Pandemic Recession.
If we get ,52+ seats and H DC Statehood would innoculate D's from losing Senate in 2024, overrides Sinema

222/216DH or more plus 53+ seats gives us DC Statehood and Rs keep lying about 2020/ and every audit gives Biden more votes not less

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes.  Democrats very likely need something like a D+2 national environment to not lose one of NV, GA, and AZ (let alone picking up WI and PA).  

The national environment will probably be R+5 or so. If that's the case, the Senate is going to be 54-46 R after these elections.

Not true, we won 80M votes compared to 74M we have the majority in the nation White females and Arabs, Blks Asians, and Latinos and College Age and Yuppie White men outnumber Evangelist Whites since 2020/ 80M to 74,M

[S019]

Yes, but the Democrats have a slim path, first Democrats must hold both AZ and NV, they need to be able to both capitalize on trends in the Phoenix region and hold onto Trump/Biden voters and they also need to continue to have their strong turnout operations in Las Vegas. Assuming that they hold onto GA, that gets them to 49. Now they need to win one of NH/PA/WI/NC, their easiest path is both Sununu and Ayotte passing on a NH run, which would probably push that race to Lean D, now let's say they lose NH (or for that matter one of NV/AZ) to the Republicans. Then, they would need to win one of PA/WI/NC, of these, WI is probably the hardest and thus can probably be ruled out. Now they face two choices: a turnout battle in a state like NC (probably best positioned to do this with Beasley) or a battle for swing voters in PA, the Democrats' issue here could be conservatively-minded Romney/Clinton voters who particularly disliked Trump, now these voters may not exactly break for someone like Sean Parnell, but a less Trumpy Republican candidate could make inroads among these voters. The Democrats' Pennsyltucky problem also means Republicans will start with a solid base of 47-48% of the vote, while Democrats will probably start with more like 45% of the vote. Ultimately, I give all of this a 15-20% or so chance of happening, so Republicans are heavily favored, but I wouldn't be surprised if they win 51 or 52 seats, nor would I be surprised if they narrowly lose the Senate and only win 49 or 50 seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's an outright tossup for now, though I'll be more rigid with a rating when we know all the nominees-something like Sununu not running against Hassan would be a huge relief that could affect a lot, for instance. In spite of that, my gut says yes just because Democratic fortunes in the Senate always seem to fall short of expectations. Sure, we took the Senate this time, but that was without the anticipated flips of Maine and North Carolina which would have helped a lot in making the trifecta more functional.

Democrats always seem to lose at least very winnable race in every Senate class, and with so little room for error this time, and the likelihood of that happening again because we live in a timeline of Lovecraftian-esque misery, that possibility is probably as high as ever.

[Non Swing Voter]

No because the electorate is polarized and it's a bad map for the GOP.  And because the election is over a year away and Biden's poll numbers will likely change after voters are reminded how awful the GOP is and how they started a riot on the Capitol.

[Vosem]

Yes as long as the generic congressional ballot is equal or right of D+3.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes as long as the generic congressional ballot is equal or right of D+3.

I agree with this and would add that in an environment like this, AZ/NV/PA are much more winnable for the GOP even with supposedly "mediocre" candidates than conventional wisdom suggests. At the same time, Republican strength in NH has been exaggerated like in 2015/2016. Holding NC/WI/PA + flipping AZ is probably their path of least resistance, although I could see a case being made for NV being slightly more winnable than AZ (I disagree with this, at least for now).

[Pericles]

Yes as long as the generic congressional ballot is equal or right of D+3.

I agree with this and would add that in an environment like this, AZ/NV/PA are much more winnable for the GOP even with supposedly "mediocre" candidates than conventional wisdom suggests. At the same time, Republican strength in NH has been exaggerated like in 2015/2016. Holding NC/WI/PA + flipping AZ is probably their path of least resistance, although I could see a case being made for NV being slightly more winnable than AZ (I disagree with this, at least for now).

I'd basically agree with this, getting to 52 shouldn't be too hard though if the national environment is actually D leaning they won't be lucky enough to run the table. The hard part is overcoming the relentless trend in Georgia and New Hampshire's Democratic lean, let alone putting seats like Colorado in contention. Fortunately for them, getting to 52 seats should keep the Senate in their hands for 6 years if Biden wins a second term, and if Biden or Harris loses they can probably rely on 2024 to give them more of a buffer for 2026.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes as long as the generic congressional ballot is equal or right of D+3.

I agree with this and would add that in an environment like this, AZ/NV/PA are much more winnable for the GOP even with supposedly "mediocre" candidates than conventional wisdom suggests. At the same time, Republican strength in NH has been exaggerated like in 2015/2016. Holding NC/WI/PA + flipping AZ is probably their path of least resistance, although I could see a case being made for NV being slightly more winnable than AZ (I disagree with this, at least for now).

I'd basically agree with this, getting to 52 shouldn't be too hard though if the national environment is actually D leaning they won't be lucky enough to run the table. The hard part is overcoming the relentless trend in Georgia and New Hampshire's Democratic lean, let alone putting seats like Colorado in contention. Fortunately for them, getting to 52 seats should keep the Senate in their hands for 6 years if Biden wins a second term, and if Biden or Harris loses they can probably rely on 2024 to give them more of a buffer for 2026.

Agree completely. I think they can get to 52 seats relatively easily even in a "R ripple," but 54 seats will probably require something of a wave (obviously not 2010/2018 levels, but at least close to 2014). 55 seats would be an absolute R tsunami, and even then, CO would be an uphill battle (I really don’t see this happening, even if Republicans win the VA races this year). MD with Hogan might look somewhat competitive in early polling but would just be a giant waste of $$$, even more so than CO.

[beesley]

Yes. I'd put the bounds of highest probability as 51-53.

[UncleSam]

Ya like 75% chance as of now. There’s a ton of races that could go either way though, so Ds have a decent chance still if Biden can turn around his approvals.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lean R. I voted yes.

Probable range: 54R-46D to 47R-53D

Best realistic outcome for Republicans: 56R-44D
Median: 53R-47D
Best realistic outcome for Democrats: 45R-55D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Presently I'd assume the result would be close to 50-50, with not a lot of seat change. Rs are likelier to have 51 seats than Ds though.

[😥]

As for today 50-50 outcome is the most likely

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As of now I probably say nothing changes in seats. I could maybe see Georgia flipping, but Pennsylvania is just as likely to flip as well so it’ll probably be no change or a wash

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, although given how bad the map is for Republicans, chances are they pick up 1-2 of AZ/GA/NH/NV, and that's it.

My guess is either a 51-49 Senate (Republicans pick up New Hampshire, lose nothing) or 52-48 (with Republicans winning New Hampshire and one of AZ/NV, and losing nothing.)

Assuming Biden is reelected, or that Harris wins in 2024, Democrats will likely trade WV/MT (Sherrod Brown probably loses too, but that one might actually depend on who Republicans nominate. I think he's capable of running well ahead of Biden/Harris) for TX/FL.

[Mr.Phips]

Lean R. I voted yes.

Probable range: 54R-46D to 47R-53D

Best realistic outcome for Republicans: 56R-44D
Median: 53R-47D
Best realistic outcome for Democrats: 45R-55D

How do you get to 55D or 56R?  Neither of those are happening even in a 2010 or 2018.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lean R. I voted yes.

Probable range: 54R-46D to 47R-53D

Best realistic outcome for Republicans: 56R-44D
Median: 53R-47D
Best realistic outcome for Democrats: 45R-55D

How do you get to 55D or 56R?  Neither of those are happening even in a 2010 or 2018.

56 R:
Republicans hold everything and flip every non-safe Democratic seat - AZ, GA, NH, NV, CO (Bennet gets primaried by an unpopular challenger) and VT (Leahy retires, Phil Scott enters).

55 D:
Democrats hold everything and flip every non-safe Republican seat - AK, FL, NC, PA, WI.

Either scenario involves the stars aligning, but any one of these seats flipping is not too implausible as of yet.

[Mr.Phips]

Lean R. I voted yes.

Probable range: 54R-46D to 47R-53D

Best realistic outcome for Republicans: 56R-44D
Median: 53R-47D
Best realistic outcome for Democrats: 45R-55D

How do you get to 55D or 56R?  Neither of those are happening even in a 2010 or 2018.

56 R:
Republicans hold everything and flip every non-safe Democratic seat - AZ, GA, NH, NV, CO (Bennet gets primaried by an unpopular challenger) and VT (Leahy retires, Phil Scott enters).

55 D:
Democrats hold everything and flip every non-safe Republican seat - AK, FL, NC, PA, WI.

Either scenario involves the stars aligning, but any one of these seats flipping is not too implausible as of yet.

Lol Scott is not winning as a Republican in a senate race in VT.