2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result (user search)
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  2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result  (Read 1464 times)
brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,459
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E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« on: October 11, 2021, 03:30:03 PM »

I wouldn't be confident about the overall results.
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brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,459
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2021, 01:27:33 AM »

I had no faith in Florida. Like zero. So it wouldn't tell me much at all.

I shouldn't have had any, but I foolishly bought into the idea that retirees would support Biden due to being against Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. In reality though the warning signs, specifically for Miami-Dade, were there the whole time and so was my gut telling me not to expect anything out of the state after the triple punch combo of 2000, 2016, and 2018. For that, I apologize to my gut, it was right all along and I have given up on this state, for real. I don't even think Democrats should bother with it anymore and use that effort on winning the other Trump-Biden states, North Carolina, and Texas instead.

To be fair, said idea was borne out by the non-Dade results (e.g., the Duval, Seminole, & Pinellas flips, plus the Villages swings). It's just that it was completely neutered by the massive Dade swing. If there's a Democrat out there who could replicate Biden's non-Dade performance & Hillary's Dade performance, then FL remaining in play would be very justified. If Biden had done so last year, then FL would've been closer than 2016 in terms of both raw votes & the margin, with the former being ~108K in this scenario compared to 2016's ~113K on lower turn-out, & the latter being <1% compared to 2016's 1.2% (i.e., closer than actual flips MI-2020 in terms of the former, & closer than PA-2020 in terms of the latter).
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