2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result
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November 29, 2021, 04:11:09 PM

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  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result
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Author Topic: 2020 United States presidential election but you only know Florida's result  (Read 820 times)
SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« on: October 11, 2021, 11:29:53 AM »

How do you think the other results look?
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2021, 03:30:03 PM »

I wouldn't be confident about the overall results.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2021, 03:39:59 PM »

I wouldn't be confident about the overall results.

At least the traditional swing counties going for Biden would be a good sign, but I don't know how good those showings looked.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2021, 05:07:01 PM »

I would have assumed Trump won re-election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2021, 07:38:42 PM »

I would say Lean Trump but not assured.  If you showed me only FL and NC, I would be shocked Biden won. 
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2021, 07:41:36 PM »

I would have assumed that Trump won. I made the very wise choice of not watching the election night returns come in, so I didn't have to experience this in real-time, but if you thought I hate the state now...hoo boy! I can't even fathom how I'd feel if I did watch them.
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EJ24
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2021, 07:05:12 PM »

I had no faith in Florida. Like zero. So it wouldn't tell me much at all.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2021, 07:18:05 PM »

I had no faith in Florida. Like zero. So it wouldn't tell me much at all.

I shouldn't have had any, but I foolishly bought into the idea that retirees would support Biden due to being against Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. In reality though the warning signs, specifically for Miami-Dade, were there the whole time and so was my gut telling me not to expect anything out of the state after the triple punch combo of 2000, 2016, and 2018. For that, I apologize to my gut, it was right all along and I have given up on this state, for real. I don't even think Democrats should bother with it anymore and use that effort on winning the other Trump-Biden states, North Carolina, and Texas instead.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2021, 01:27:33 AM »

I had no faith in Florida. Like zero. So it wouldn't tell me much at all.

I shouldn't have had any, but I foolishly bought into the idea that retirees would support Biden due to being against Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. In reality though the warning signs, specifically for Miami-Dade, were there the whole time and so was my gut telling me not to expect anything out of the state after the triple punch combo of 2000, 2016, and 2018. For that, I apologize to my gut, it was right all along and I have given up on this state, for real. I don't even think Democrats should bother with it anymore and use that effort on winning the other Trump-Biden states, North Carolina, and Texas instead.

To be fair, said idea was borne out by the non-Dade results (e.g., the Duval, Seminole, & Pinellas flips, plus the Villages swings). It's just that it was completely neutered by the massive Dade swing. If there's a Democrat out there who could replicate Biden's non-Dade performance & Hillary's Dade performance, then FL remaining in play would be very justified. If Biden had done so last year, then FL would've been closer than 2016 in terms of both raw votes & the margin, with the former being ~108K in this scenario compared to 2016's ~113K on lower turn-out, & the latter being <1% compared to 2016's 1.2% (i.e., closer than actual flips MI-2020 in terms of the former, & closer than PA-2020 in terms of the latter).
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #9 on: October 13, 2021, 10:17:14 AM »

Trump won Florida by the margin I predicted he would, although I didn't expect such a strong swing in Miami-Dade County. Given those results I probably wouldn't have changed my prediction.
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L.D. Smith, Ein Wissensjaeger im lockigen Haar
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2021, 10:23:15 PM »
« Edited: November 28, 2021, 08:29:27 PM by L.D. Smith, Ein Wissensjaeger im lockigen Haar »

Trump wins. He might even win the popular vote.
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The Invincible Brent Boggs
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2021, 05:33:08 PM »

Do we get to know the pre-election polling averages as well?
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SANTA IS A GLOBAL CONSPIRACY!!!
GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2021, 06:18:01 PM »

Do we get to know the pre-election polling averages as well?
No
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Chips
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2021, 10:54:49 PM »

Trump wins in my prediction.
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Southern Reactionary Dem
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2021, 02:40:29 PM »

I would think Trump cruised to an easy re-election. Some of the 2020 results don't make sense in my mind TBH.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2021, 10:29:00 PM »

Iíd be very scared, but then my more logical mind would remind me that swings arenít uniform, and looking at Florida in more detail one would see a Democratic swing outside Miami-Dade.  Biden flipping Duval and a couple other counties?  Hope!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2021, 12:00:22 PM »

I would have expected Trump to win Arizona, Georgia, and one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; such would have been a bare win by Donald Trump in the Electoral College  even if less than a majority in the popular vote.
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The Invincible Brent Boggs
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2021, 12:53:38 AM »

I would definitely guess that Trump won in that case; I would have expected Florida to be right of the tipping point, but not by 4 points like what actually happened. Of course, there would be a lot of uncertainty in predicting based on the results in one state (for example, imagine trying to guess the result in 2016 based on only Virginia).
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2021, 04:36:26 PM »

I would have assumed Trump won re-election.

This. Also depends on what you call 'results': just the margins, the raw votes, or the county by county results? If either of the first two then definitely Trump; if the third then most probably Trump.
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#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
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« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2021, 09:31:19 PM »

I had no faith in Florida. Like zero. So it wouldn't tell me much at all.

I shouldn't have had any, but I foolishly bought into the idea that retirees would support Biden due to being against Trump's mishandling of the pandemic. In reality though the warning signs, specifically for Miami-Dade, were there the whole time and so was my gut telling me not to expect anything out of the state after the triple punch combo of 2000, 2016, and 2018. For that, I apologize to my gut, it was right all along and I have given up on this state, for real. I don't even think Democrats should bother with it anymore and use that effort on winning the other Trump-Biden states, North Carolina, and Texas instead.

To be fair, said idea was borne out by the non-Dade results (e.g., the Duval, Seminole, & Pinellas flips, plus the Villages swings). It's just that it was completely neutered by the massive Dade swing. If there's a Democrat out there who could replicate Biden's non-Dade performance & Hillary's Dade performance, then FL remaining in play would be very justified. If Biden had done so last year, then FL would've been closer than 2016 in terms of both raw votes & the margin, with the former being ~108K in this scenario compared to 2016's ~113K on lower turn-out, & the latter being <1% compared to 2016's 1.2% (i.e., closer than actual flips MI-2020 in terms of the former, & closer than PA-2020 in terms of the latter).
If Hispanic voters in FL behaved normally in 2020 in swinging a bit to the Dems like they did in 2012 and 2016; then Biden wins the state.
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