We came really close to an electoral tie
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  We came really close to an electoral tie
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Mister Mets
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« on: October 10, 2021, 08:16:46 PM »

It seems underappreciated how close we came to a 269-269 electoral tie.

Biden's margin in Georgia was 0.23% (11,779 votes) His margin in Arizona was 0.31% (10,457 votes) and his margin in Wisconsin was 0.63% (20,682 votes.) A national swing of less than a percent would've resulted in a Trump win. That wouldn't have taken much (IE- a better first debate performance when he was probably sick with Covid.)

That would have resulted in a 269-269 tie, which would have sent the election to the House of Representatives, where each house delegation would get one vote, a scenario under which Republicans would have the edge.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/18/how-2020-election-was-closer-than-2016/

How come this isn't discussed more?

Is it that it took a few days to determine the exact electoral count? Is it that people are unfamiliar with how it works when the election goes to the House (Bill Maher suggested on Friday that Republicans need to win the House in order for the House of Representatives to decide the election, which suggests his fact-checkers hadn't made that point)?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2021, 03:59:35 AM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.
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Asta
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2021, 05:09:07 PM »

I do appreciate that Democrats didn't have to feel like a Detroit Lions fan for another 4 years.

Otherwise, I'd have had to question whether political gods want Democrats to be masochists.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2021, 06:31:48 PM »

There were so many nightmare scenarios that could have happened, we probably are in one in reality, but it's good to know that it really could have been worse. It sucks that the worst case scenario always seems likelier than the best in this country though.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2021, 07:37:06 PM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.

What would make this scenario so interesting and unpredictable is that with exactly 26 R state delegations, Trump would absolutely need Liz Cheney's vote as the sole representative from Wyoming to become president. 

*This assumes MN-02, PA-17, and MI-08 all stay Dem to maintain the ties in those states, which they all would on a uniform swing (MN-02 would get within 1%, though).

**Elsewhere, Malinowski would lose NJ-07 on a uniform swing that makes Biden lose Wisconsin.  IA-03 and IL-14 would both be within 0.1% and go to a recount.  VA-07 would have a clear Spanberger lead, but would be well within VA's 1% recount threshold.  At the start of the new congress, Dems could have exactly 218 seats!
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2021, 07:57:11 PM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.

What would make this scenario so interesting and unpredictable is that with exactly 26 R state delegations, Trump would absolutely need Liz Cheney's vote as the sole representative from Wyoming to become president. 

*This assumes MN-02, PA-17, and MI-08 all stay Dem to maintain the ties in those states, which they all would on a uniform swing (MN-02 would get within 1%, though).

**Elsewhere, Malinowski would lose NJ-07 on a uniform swing that makes Biden lose Wisconsin.  IA-03 and IL-14 would both be within 0.1% and go to a recount.  VA-07 would have a clear Spanberger lead, but would be well within VA's 1% recount threshold.  At the start of the new congress, Dems could have exactly 218 seats!

I think Cheney did endorse Trump but it would be a wild situation. Apparently the previous contingent elections were done by secret ballot, but even if some NeverTrumpers tried to argue for it I can't see that being acceptable in the modern era. Also, Democrats did not win any House races by 0.6% or less. I'm not sure how you're getting your swings.
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Leroy McPherson fan
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2021, 08:23:56 PM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.

What would make this scenario so interesting and unpredictable is that with exactly 26 R state delegations, Trump would absolutely need Liz Cheney's vote as the sole representative from Wyoming to become president. 

*This assumes MN-02, PA-17, and MI-08 all stay Dem to maintain the ties in those states, which they all would on a uniform swing (MN-02 would get within 1%, though).

**Elsewhere, Malinowski would lose NJ-07 on a uniform swing that makes Biden lose Wisconsin.  IA-03 and IL-14 would both be within 0.1% and go to a recount.  VA-07 would have a clear Spanberger lead, but would be well within VA's 1% recount threshold.  At the start of the new congress, Dems could have exactly 218 seats!

I think Cheney did endorse Trump but it would be a wild situation. Apparently the previous contingent elections were done by secret ballot, but even if some NeverTrumpers tried to argue for it I can't see that being acceptable in the modern era. Also, Democrats did not win any House races by 0.6% or less. I'm not sure how you're getting your swings.
Cheney almost certainly still supported Trump in 2020.


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brucejoel99
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2021, 09:13:25 PM »

Cheney has rather explicitly stated that she supported him 'til he tried to coup his way back into office after losing it, so in a world which sees his attempts to overturn the election substituted with the election continuing for another 2 months but just on Capitol Hill rather than across the country, I imagine that she'd still cast WY's contingent-electoral vote for him.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2021, 06:40:38 AM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.

What would make this scenario so interesting and unpredictable is that with exactly 26 R state delegations, Trump would absolutely need Liz Cheney's vote as the sole representative from Wyoming to become president. 

*This assumes MN-02, PA-17, and MI-08 all stay Dem to maintain the ties in those states, which they all would on a uniform swing (MN-02 would get within 1%, though).

**Elsewhere, Malinowski would lose NJ-07 on a uniform swing that makes Biden lose Wisconsin.  IA-03 and IL-14 would both be within 0.1% and go to a recount.  VA-07 would have a clear Spanberger lead, but would be well within VA's 1% recount threshold.  At the start of the new congress, Dems could have exactly 218 seats!

I think Cheney did endorse Trump but it would be a wild situation. Apparently the previous contingent elections were done by secret ballot, but even if some NeverTrumpers tried to argue for it I can't see that being acceptable in the modern era. Also, Democrats did not win any House races by 0.6% or less. I'm not sure how you're getting your swings.

Whoops, yes, I used 0.6-0.7% when I should have only used a 0.3-0.4% swing to flip Wisconsin.  That keeps all 222 Dem seats, but with a recount in NJ-07. 
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2021, 09:15:07 AM »

I already know the answer, but would McCarthy and House Republicans risk a civil war? Surely there would be immense pressure from CEOs, military, international leaders,
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2021, 04:22:54 AM »

I already know the answer, but would McCarthy and House Republicans risk a civil war? Surely there would be immense pressure from CEOs, military, international leaders,
In the event of an electoral college tie, it would be perfectly legal for McCarthy and House Republicans to vote for their preferred candidate.

A failure to do so would rightly piss off a lot of voters.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2021, 11:04:43 AM »

I already know the answer, but would McCarthy and House Republicans risk a civil war? Surely there would be immense pressure from CEOs, military, international leaders,

In the event of an electoral college tie, it would be perfectly legal for McCarthy and House Republicans to vote for their preferred candidate.

A failure to do so would rightly piss off a lot of voters.

Nobody said anything about legality. Of course it'd be perfectly legal for them to do so. It being perfectly legal, however, would by no means make it, y'know, the right thing to do, & their actively "do[ing] so would rightly piss off a lot of voters."
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2021, 11:13:39 AM »

It's crazy how that would have been one of the worst possible outcomes for the country. Let's say Biden loses Wisconsin by around 1,000 votes, with the election being one of the biggest polling errors in modern history (it is now too of course but people don't care much). He wins the popular vote by 3.8%, I think that comes to a 6 million vote margin. Democrats still win 222 seats in the House and the popular vote there too. Then, after two months of drama-probably even more intense than real life-the House would vote by state delegations to re-elect Trump. It would have been so divisive and so undemocratic, and just a giant mess all around. And it shouldn't have been that close anyway, because he did such a bad job in his term and is just so terrible. It does make me feel relief thinking about it.

What would make this scenario so interesting and unpredictable is that with exactly 26 R state delegations, Trump would absolutely need Liz Cheney's vote as the sole representative from Wyoming to become president. 

*This assumes MN-02, PA-17, and MI-08 all stay Dem to maintain the ties in those states, which they all would on a uniform swing (MN-02 would get within 1%, though).

**Elsewhere, Malinowski would lose NJ-07 on a uniform swing that makes Biden lose Wisconsin.  IA-03 and IL-14 would both be within 0.1% and go to a recount.  VA-07 would have a clear Spanberger lead, but would be well within VA's 1% recount threshold.  At the start of the new congress, Dems could have exactly 218 seats!

Actually, no, it wouldn't be interesting. Cheney and the other impeachers all supported Trump pre-January 6, and none would dream of being the person who elects Biden president. If this is the scenario then Cheney definitely votes to keep Trump. Remember, in this timeline, January 6 doesn't happen, so people like Cheney and Kinzinger have no reason to oppose Trump that they didn't already have.
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patzer
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2021, 01:28:28 PM »

Bear in mind it wouldn’t be Trump vs Biden.
If enough House electors abstained from electing a president, it’d be down to the Senate who’d elect Pence over Harris (Ossoff and Warnock not being confirmed until after the vote)– and the winner of that would automatically become president without house delegations selecting anyone.

The question is whether enough Republicans in the House would abstain to get Pence into office.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2021, 01:35:28 PM »

Bear in mind it wouldn’t be Trump vs Biden.
If enough House electors abstained from electing a president, it’d be down to the Senate who’d elect Pence over Harris (Ossoff and Warnock not being confirmed until after the vote)– and the winner of that would automatically become president without house delegations selecting anyone.

The question is whether enough Republicans in the House would abstain to get Pence into office.

This.  If Cheney (or other R's in single member or closely split delegations) withheld her vote from Trump, the alternative isn't Biden.  It's Pence.  And that's a much closer call.  Also, if you apply the uniform swing needed to flip Wisconsin to Trump, Perdue would win the regular GA senate seat outright in November, so a 51 vote GOP majority would be assured. 

Factor in the likelihood that Trump's team would still be contesting PA aggressively into December to try to win outright, saying some crazy-sounding stuff in the process, and this gets even more interesting.  How much of this would Cheney tolerate? 
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compucomp
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2021, 02:35:47 PM »

Bear in mind it wouldn’t be Trump vs Biden.
If enough House electors abstained from electing a president, it’d be down to the Senate who’d elect Pence over Harris (Ossoff and Warnock not being confirmed until after the vote)– and the winner of that would automatically become president without house delegations selecting anyone.

The question is whether enough Republicans in the House would abstain to get Pence into office.

This.  If Cheney (or other R's in single member or closely split delegations) withheld her vote from Trump, the alternative isn't Biden.  It's Pence.  And that's a much closer call.  Also, if you apply the uniform swing needed to flip Wisconsin to Trump, Perdue would win the regular GA senate seat outright in November, so a 51 vote GOP majority would be assured. 

Factor in the likelihood that Trump's team would still be contesting PA aggressively into December to try to win outright, saying some crazy-sounding stuff in the process, and this gets even more interesting.  How much of this would Cheney tolerate? 

In your scenario where the House contingent vote deadlocks, the story doesn't end there. According to Wikipedia:

Quote
To prevent deadlocks from keeping the nation leaderless, the Twelfth Amendment provided that if the House did not choose a president before March 4 (then the first day of a presidential term), the individual elected vice president would "act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President". The Twelfth Amendment did not state for how long the vice president would act as president or if the House could still choose a president after March 4. Section 3 of the Twentieth Amendment, adopted in 1933, supersedes that provision of the Twelfth Amendment by changing the date upon which a new presidential term commences to January 20, clarifying that the vice president-elect would only "act as President" if the House has not chosen a president by January 20, and permitting Congress to statutorily provide "who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected" if there is no president-elect or vice president-elect by January 20. It also clarifies that if there is no president-elect on January 20, whoever acts as president does so until a person "qualified" to occupy the presidency is elected to be president.

So Pence is just acting president indefinitely, waiting for the House to resolve the deadlock. At this point these Republican Congressmen/women would come under immense, overwhelming pressure from the Trumpists to vote for Trump. To be fair, they could justifiably say that these people have stolen the election from Trump. Given what we saw IRL it's plausible that these Republicans would be targeted for assassination by Trump and the 1/6 equivalent would have been an explicit kill mission.
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