Strongest state parties?

[R.P. McM]

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Strange list, unless you're only considering the 2020 cycle. Otherwise, these parties have all lost presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial elections in recent years, despite the inherent leans of said states. FL Republicans have certainly been impressive, but I can't say the same for the rest. CO elected Gardner, GA elected Kemp, WI reelected Johnson, and OH reelected Brown. Obviously, some of this is simply an example of swing-states swinging, but why would that be evidence of a particularly strong state party? In my mind, what defines a strong state party is resisting the national trends.

[R.P. McM]

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Strange list, unless you're only considering the 2020 cycle. Otherwise, these parties have all lost presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial elections in recent years, despite the inherent leans of said states. FL Republicans have certainly been impressive, but I can't say the same for the rest. CO elected Gardner, GA elected Kemp, WI reelected Johnson, and OH reelected Brown. Obviously, some of this is simply an example of swing-states swinging, but why would that be evidence of a particularly strong state party? In my mind, what defines a strong state party is resisting the national trends.

Those parties should get extra credit for working to flip those formerly red states blue. The Georgia Dems especially went from complete irrelevancy to future dominance in a remarkably short period of time. To me, that makes them much more impressive than parties from Safe-D states.

The GA Dems are the only relevant example, because electoral outcomes in GA are essentially a (racial) math equation. How many whites live and vote in the state, versus everyone else? It was never a question of if, but when? I was surprised GA flipped in 2020, but given the level of racial polarization, the dismal future of the GA GOP is a foregone conclusion. And I don't assign as much credit to a state party riding a favorable demographic wave.

That said, I agree that safe-D/R states shouldn't appear anywhere on this list. If you routinely win the presidential vote by ≥ 10%, you shouldn't be applauded for winning the vast majority of statewide elections.

[R.P. McM]

Top 10:

1. OR Democrats
2. FL Republicans
3. IN Republicans
4. MN Democrats
5. AK Democrats
6. NV Democrats
7. TN Republicans
8. GA Democrats
9. NH Democrats
10. CA Democrats

OR Democrats over MN Democrats? Eh, I'm biased, but both parties have won essentially every statewide election over the past ~15 years. The difference being, the 2020 presidential margin in OR was 16%, versus 7% in MN. In 2016, it was 11% versus 1.5%.