Strongest state parties?
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October 27, 2021, 10:02:32 PM

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  Strongest state parties?
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YOUNGKIN FOR VIRGINIA
GregTheGreat657
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« on: October 10, 2021, 06:47:24 PM »

I'd probably put the Florida Republicans, North Carolina Republicans, Rhode Island Democrats, Iowa Republicans, and Georgia Democrats up there
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2021, 06:50:41 PM »

FLGOP
NCGOP
IAGOP
KYDP (they have the governorship)
NJDP
CADP
TXGOP
MAGOP
OHGOP
WIGOP
GADP
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2021, 06:55:38 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2021, 07:04:39 PM by Roll Roons »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2021, 06:59:17 PM »

FLGOP is definitely up there for managing to defeat Bill Nelson in a blue wave year, even if it was through fraud.
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Spectator
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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2021, 07:12:33 PM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Itís not because of the state party that the MA GOP has been successful in gubernatorial races. The party has historically had no money, rarely fielded credible challengers in swing seats to Democratic incumbents, and openly feuds with their incumbent Governor. Baker, Romney, Cellucci all won despite the inept state party not because of it.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2021, 01:08:06 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2021, 01:17:59 AM by R.P. McM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.


And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Strange list, unless you're only considering the 2020 cycle. Otherwise, these parties have all lost presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial elections in recent years, despite the inherent leans of said states. FL Republicans have certainly been impressive, but I can't say the same for the rest. CO elected Gardner, GA elected Kemp, WI reelected Johnson, and OH reelected Brown. Obviously, some of this is simply an example of swing-states swinging, but why would that be evidence of a particularly strong state party? In my mind, what defines a strong state party is resisting the national trends.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2021, 06:19:45 PM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

I think the Massachusetts GOP only deserves credit when the Democrats nominated Martha Coakley. Granted, that is indeed a demerit to the Massachusetts Democrats, especially after not learning after her loss to Brown.
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2021, 07:27:33 PM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.


And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Strange list, unless you're only considering the 2020 cycle. Otherwise, these parties have all lost presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial elections in recent years, despite the inherent leans of said states. FL Republicans have certainly been impressive, but I can't say the same for the rest. CO elected Gardner, GA elected Kemp, WI reelected Johnson, and OH reelected Brown. Obviously, some of this is simply an example of swing-states swinging, but why would that be evidence of a particularly strong state party? In my mind, what defines a strong state party is resisting the national trends.

Those parties should get extra credit for working to flip those formerly red states blue. The Georgia Dems especially went from complete irrelevancy to future dominance in a remarkably short period of time. To me, that makes them much more impressive than parties from Safe-D states.
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90s_kid
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« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2021, 07:30:04 PM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!
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Not Me, Us
KhanOfKhans
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2021, 07:55:21 PM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!

I agree to an extent, but they really dropped the ball in 2020. They should not have lost any statewide races.
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KYRockefeller
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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2021, 08:51:17 PM »

FLGOP
NCGOP
IAGOP
KYDP (they have the governorship)
NJDP
CADP
TXGOP
MAGOP
OHGOP
WIGOP
GADP


The Kentucky Dems should not be on this list. Yes, they have the governorship but they only won it by 5,000 votes in a favorable environment.  On top of that, they lost every other state office and the state legislature has a Republican supermajority.  The party is also not competitive in Senate races or House races for national races.

The party just lacks an identity here IMO and are trying to be an urban-centric party in a state where that is not going to work as a path to power.
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90s_kid
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« Reply #11 on: October 13, 2021, 01:23:09 AM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!

I agree to an extent, but they really dropped the ball in 2020. They should not have lost any statewide races.

aw sh**te, which ones did they lose?  were they the incumbents in all four or five statewide positions going in?
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2021, 09:46:16 AM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!

I agree to an extent, but they really dropped the ball in 2020. They should not have lost any statewide races.

aw sh**te, which ones did they lose?  were they the incumbents in all four or five statewide positions going in?

Auditor General and State Treasurer. Timothy DeFoor defeated Nina Ahmad in the Auditor General race (incumbent Eugene DePasquale was term-limited and ran against Scott Perry in PA-10 instead), and Stacy Garrity defeated incumbent Joe Torsella in the State Treasurer race.
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McAuliffe More Vulnerable than Tester
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« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2021, 01:04:38 PM »

Top 10:

1. OR Democrats
2. FL Republicans
3. IN Republicans
4. MN Democrats
5. AK Democrats
6. NV Democrats
7. TN Republicans
8. GA Democrats
9. NH Democrats
10. CA Democrats
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2021, 01:07:15 PM »

Republicans: FL, OH
Democrats: MN, NV
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #15 on: October 13, 2021, 01:17:34 PM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.

And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

I think the Massachusetts GOP only deserves credit when the Democrats nominated Martha Coakley. Granted, that is indeed a demerit to the Massachusetts Democrats, especially after not learning after her loss to Brown.

I'm just wondering how pathetic you can get if you lose two statewide races as a Democrat in Massachusetts like Coakley did.
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IíM GONNA TOOOOOOOOM
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« Reply #16 on: October 13, 2021, 02:04:53 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2021, 02:18:35 PM by IíM GONNA TOOOOOOOOM »

Republicans: FL, OH
Democrats: MN, NV

I would have named the Nevada Democrats prior to the DSA takeover earlier this year. My friend who works in AZ/NV politics has confirmed to me that the NV Dems are in utter shambles and are only getting worse with their infighting.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: October 13, 2021, 02:17:05 PM »

The Kentucky Democrats - extremely well-organized, expert at localizing campaigns, largely out of power due to factors completely outside of their own control.
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90s_kid
progressive85
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« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2021, 05:41:16 PM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!

I agree to an extent, but they really dropped the ball in 2020. They should not have lost any statewide races.

aw sh**te, which ones did they lose?  were they the incumbents in all four or five statewide positions going in?

Auditor General and State Treasurer. Timothy DeFoor defeated Nina Ahmad in the Auditor General race (incumbent Eugene DePasquale was term-limited and ran against Scott Perry in PA-10 instead), and Stacy Garrity defeated incumbent Joe Torsella in the State Treasurer race.

Did Nina Ahmad's last name hurt her at all?  Did she lose by more than Torsella did?
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2021, 08:26:36 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2021, 08:41:12 PM by R.P. McM »

Democrats: Colorado, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Republicans: Florida, Ohio.


And even though they've gotten shut out of almost everything else, I do think the Massachusetts GOP deserves some credit for having won 6 out of the last 8 gubernatorial elections.

Strange list, unless you're only considering the 2020 cycle. Otherwise, these parties have all lost presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial elections in recent years, despite the inherent leans of said states. FL Republicans have certainly been impressive, but I can't say the same for the rest. CO elected Gardner, GA elected Kemp, WI reelected Johnson, and OH reelected Brown. Obviously, some of this is simply an example of swing-states swinging, but why would that be evidence of a particularly strong state party? In my mind, what defines a strong state party is resisting the national trends.

Those parties should get extra credit for working to flip those formerly red states blue. The Georgia Dems especially went from complete irrelevancy to future dominance in a remarkably short period of time. To me, that makes them much more impressive than parties from Safe-D states.

The GA Dems are the only relevant example, because electoral outcomes in GA are essentially a (racial) math equation. How many whites live and vote in the state, versus everyone else? It was never a question of if, but when? I was surprised GA flipped in 2020, but given the level of racial polarization, the dismal future of the GA GOP is a foregone conclusion. And I don't assign as much credit to a state party riding a favorable demographic wave.

That said, I agree that safe-D/R states shouldn't appear anywhere on this list. If you routinely win the presidential vote by ≥ 10%, you shouldn't be applauded for winning the vast majority of statewide elections.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2021, 08:56:25 PM »

Top 10:

1. OR Democrats
2. FL Republicans
3. IN Republicans
4. MN Democrats
5. AK Democrats
6. NV Democrats
7. TN Republicans
8. GA Democrats
9. NH Democrats
10. CA Democrats

OR Democrats over MN Democrats? Eh, I'm biased, but both parties have won essentially every statewide election over the past ~15 years. The difference being, the 2020 presidential margin in OR was 16%, versus 7% in MN. In 2016, it was 11% versus 1.5%.
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #21 on: October 13, 2021, 09:10:22 PM »

PA Democrats rock.  They continue to be very viable like they were in 2010 with Pat Toomey vs. Joe Sestak... and 2016 with Katie McGinty.  PA is a swing state if there ever was one and I predict that since its more populated than the other two (MI and WI) it will become much more important in the EC (electoral college) than MI or WI will be.  PA dems are badly in the minority in the State House and I can't even remember if they were ever in the Majority in the state Senate in the 21st century (you might have to go back to the 80s or 90s for that), but they do pretty darn well in statewide races, even the court races.  So go PA Dems!

I agree to an extent, but they really dropped the ball in 2020. They should not have lost any statewide races.

aw sh**te, which ones did they lose?  were they the incumbents in all four or five statewide positions going in?

Auditor General and State Treasurer. Timothy DeFoor defeated Nina Ahmad in the Auditor General race (incumbent Eugene DePasquale was term-limited and ran against Scott Perry in PA-10 instead), and Stacy Garrity defeated incumbent Joe Torsella in the State Treasurer race.

Did Nina Ahmad's last name hurt her at all?  Did she lose by more than Torsella did?

Can't speak much to whether her last name hurt her (though I suspect it might've had a small effect), but yes, she lost by 3.1% (49.4% to 46.3%), while Torsella lost by 0.8% (48.7% to 47.9%).
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REAL Kimberly Guilfoyle
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2021, 11:15:58 PM »

NY Dems since 2019.

Got everyone to forget about Cuomo and will pass 23-3 map.
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Forumlurker
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« Reply #23 on: October 14, 2021, 09:34:59 AM »

Republicans: Florida because duh
Democrats: Minnesota because duh
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2021, 09:25:44 PM »

The OH and FL GOPs have seemed impressively strong, unified and fairly disciplined for a while now, IMO.
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