Will Maine vote to the right of New Hampshire in 2024?

[GregTheGreat657]

I'd be inclined to say yes due to Maine being more Rust Belty along with being more Trump friendly relative to its partisan lean compared to New Hampshire

[DPKdebator]

I think this is going to happen in the long term, but for now New Hampshire is the more fundamentally Republican state. The NHGOP has a strong anchor in Boston exurbs, and the ME Dems have the same in the Portland area.

[TodayJunior]

I think Portland’s size and partisan lean will prevent that. So, no. 

[Chips]

It's a distinct possibility in 2024. You never know...



(The GOP wins the election outright if they win ME, It's 269-269 if it stays blue)

[Biden his time]

I'm gonna be bold here and say that Maine will vote 2 - 3% more Republican than New Hampshire, and in my opinion it's been a long time coming for many demographic reasons:

New Hampshire is more ethnically and racially diverse
New Hampshire is more urban
New Hampshire is more educated
New Hampshire is (slightly) less religious

We saw how well Trump appealed to Mainers in 2016, and I believe that that year was foreshadowing for what is to come. Just another rural populist swing like that and Maine is gonna be in Republican hands.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't know results of 2022 Midterms yet and FL is definitely in play just because DeSantis and Rubio are ahead doesn't mean much and DeSantis came back from six pts down on Gillium with a mnth left.

MI and Pa aren't voting R with Debbie Stabenow and Bob Casey Jr are on the ballot in 2024

I don't know why users don't believe in waves they think that, 2016/2020 lives forever 1992/96/2008/2016 with Biden on ballot in 2008/12 we won 80M votes to Trump 74M he won't win

Every Audit, Trump lost votes not gained votes he gained 309 more votes in AZ, he wasn't cheated

[Xing]

It could happen, my current guess is that they vote very similarly in 2024. Maine isn't a state that Democrats can take for granted, and I've never understand why people argue that Wisconsin is a "demographic nightmare" for Democrats and then claim that Maine is Likely/Safe D.

[Biden his time]

It could happen, my current guess is that they vote very similarly in 2024. Maine isn't a state that Democrats can take for granted, and I've never understand why people argue that Wisconsin is a "demographic nightmare" for Democrats and then claim that Maine is Likely/Safe D.

Yes, both are demographic nightmares 

The sooner investment in TX happens the better

[MT Treasurer]

I think this is going to happen in the long term, but for now New Hampshire is the more fundamentally Republican state. The NHGOP has a strong anchor in Boston exurbs, and the ME Dems have the same in the Portland area.

Rural/small-town ME is a stronger and certainly more reliable anchor for the GOP than the Boston exurbs at this point, though. That said, I agree that they will vote very similarly in 2024 (NH has been trolling me since 2016 by never granting my wish that they finally vote left of ME).

I expect both states to trend R in 2022/2024, but there are compelling reasons to believe that NH will be more favorable to Democrats than ME down the road.

[Vosem]

Lean yes, recent trends pretty strongly suggest this. It would be the first time Maine would be more Republican than New Hampshire since the 1960 election:

ME/NH/difference:
2020: D+9/D+8/D+1
2016: D+3/D+0/D+3
2012: D+15/D+5/D+10
2008: D+18/D+9/D+9
2004: D+9/D+1/D+8
2000: D+5/R+1/D+6
1996: D+21/D+9/D+12
1992: D+9/D+1/D+8 (Clinton vs. Bush in ME; Perot was in second)
1988: R+11/R+27/D+16
1984: R+22/R+38/D+16
1980: R+4/R+29/D+25
1976: R+1/R+11/D+10
1972: R+22/R+29/D+7
1968: D+12/R+8/D+20
1964: D+38/D+28/D+10
1960: R+14/R+6/R+8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[SN2903]

Possibly. Definitely by 28.

[Alben Barkley]

It's a distinct possibility in 2024. You never know...



(The GOP wins the election outright if they win ME, It's 269-269 if it stays blue)

This would require WI (AND GA AND AZ) voting left of MI and PA, which is less likely than ME voting right of NH, which itself is not very likely.

[Figueira]

It's a distinct possibility in 2024. You never know...



(The GOP wins the election outright if they win ME, It's 269-269 if it stays blue)

Doesn't really count as a tipping point if it would be 269-269 anyway, unless Democrats somehow win a majority of House delegations.

[TDAS04]

Probably not in 2024.