Who will carry Collin, TX?

[GregTheGreat657]

Who will carry Collin, TX?

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

[Real Texan Politics]

Tossup with Trump, borderline lean/likely with someone else (presumably DeSantis but Trump seems more likely to run now).

[TodayJunior]

Based on underlying trend lines and the party becoming more Trumpian, a Democratic candidate by 3-5%. This is another one of those counties that was a snapshot in time in 2020 on its growth trajectory and leftward march.

[Cyrusman]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

[DrScholl]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

Trump performed worse there than any Republican candidate has in many, many years. It's not likely that Republicans add enough votes there to hold onto it in 2024 with a Trump clone. The way the GOP butchered it in redistricting says a lot.

[Roll Roons]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

In eight years, it also swung from Romney +31 to Trump +17 to Trump +4. This is not Trump country at all.

And Trump lost ground in a lot of traditionally conservative suburban counties. Williamson, TN swung against him by 9 points. Waukesha, WI swung against him by 6. Hamilton, IN swung against him by 12.

[Del Tachi]

The Republican by a wider margin than in 2020

[Cyrusman]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

In eight years, it also swung from Romney +31 to Trump +17 to Trump +4. This is not Trump country at all.

And Trump lost ground in a lot of traditionally conservative suburban counties. Williamson, TN swung against him by 9 points. Waukesha, WI swung against him by 6. Hamilton, IN swung against him by 12.

I get that but what is it specifically about Colin county Texas that caused that? To me that’s not a California or even Georgia type suburb. It’s a suburb in a conservative state that holds a lot of socially conservative values and a conservative culture, so I guess I’m just trying to understand why that county of all places would vote for liberal democrats

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

Collin County is rapidly shifting to the Dems. The city of Plano, the largest city in that county went from Trump +4.7% in 2016 to Biden +8.7%.

2016


2020

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

It's a white college degree majority county, most people are traditional conservatives who like low taxes, but they don't like Trump manners. I know many Trump-Biden and Biden-Cornyn voters, they didn't like Trump manners.

[Roll Roons]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

It's a white college degree majority county, most people are traditional conservatives who like low taxes, but they don't like Trump manners. I know many Trump-Biden and Biden-Cornyn voters, they didn't like Trump manners.

That, and it's also undergoing huge demographic changes.

[BG-NY]

Harris will win it by 5ish points.

[Pericles]

Democratic, the trend is just brutal for Republicans here.

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

It's a white college degree majority county, most people are traditional conservatives who like low taxes, but they don't like Trump manners. I know many Trump-Biden and Biden-Cornyn voters, they didn't like Trump manners.

That, and it's also undergoing huge demographic changes.

Demographic changes contribute but the major change was the shift of college whites with GOP. If college whites would still be supporting GOP like in 2012 levels, Collin would still be a likely R borderline with safe R.

[Smash255]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

In eight years, it also swung from Romney +31 to Trump +17 to Trump +4. This is not Trump country at all.

And Trump lost ground in a lot of traditionally conservative suburban counties. Williamson, TN swung against him by 9 points. Waukesha, WI swung against him by 6. Hamilton, IN swung against him by 12.

I get that but what is it specifically about Colin county Texas that caused that? To me that’s not a California or even Georgia type suburb. It’s a suburb in a conservative state that holds a lot of socially conservative values and a conservative culture, so I guess I’m just trying to understand why that county of all places would vote for liberal democrats

It is becoming increasingly diverse 55.1% Non-Hispanic White and 52.3% of those 25 and over have a Bachelor's Degree.   Diverse well educated suburbs are the areas that trended the heaviest away from Trump, and that is exactly what Colin County is.

[The Mikado]

If Trump's the GOP nominee? Tossup, likely to end up anywhere between Biden +2 and Trump +2.

If Trump's not the nominee? Likely R, probably GOP by 5-8 points.

There's a real Trump tax in an area like that. The GOP voters are just not really Trumpy people.

[Chips]

I'd say the GOP but it will likely be very competitive by 2028.

[Xing]

Even if Republicans do modestly better in the suburbs as a whole, this is probably one where they can't make up ground. Tilt/Lean D.

[Indy Texas]

By 2024 it will just be a bellwether county. If Biden gets reelected, he'll win it. If the GOP wins, they'll win it.

[S019]

I don't think this is a Trump specific trend, there's just a lot of people moving in, who just happen to be D leaning, so I'll say the Democrats, the more interesting question imo is who wins Denton.

[Roll Roons]

I don't think this is a Trump specific trend, there's just a lot of people moving in, who just happen to be D leaning, so I'll say the Democrats, the more interesting question imo is who wins Denton.

I'll be watching Denton very closely. If Biden wins it, I think he's won Texas.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

I don't think this is a Trump specific trend, there's just a lot of people moving in, who just happen to be D leaning, so I'll say the Democrats, the more interesting question imo is who wins Denton.

I'll be watching Denton very closely. If Biden wins it, I think he's won Texas.

Biden isn’t winning Denton under any circumstances.

[Builder Refused]

Trump is the only reason Republicans are unpopular, so obviously neither Denton nor Collin will go on with 10 point swings toward Democrats. Joe Biden is gonna poop his pants, literally, and they’ll both return to R+30, because the only thing that has changed since 2016 is Trump, and he’s DEFINITELY
NOT
RUNNING
AGAIN
If I’m wrong I’ll leave the forum, then I’ll destroy the universe like the guy in Tenet, I’ll literally leave the universe. Sincerely, proud NOVA fiscal conservative, Builder Refused, Gillespie 2021