Good post overall, some quick notes/questions:
So who do I see as trending Democratic in this scenario (in Order of Likely Manifestation):
Virginia (though might be able to stabilize since most of this process is done there)
Georgia - ongoing
Texas - a bit behind Georgia
Mississippi - We will see in about ten years.
What about Louisiana? Too rural?
Thus AZ is one of the few sunbelt states where the GOP can literally choose whether or not the state becomes a Democratic stronghold, or remains a swing and maybe even becomes Republican leaning again.
I used to be of this mindset, but if even some of the hispanic gains are due to incumbency, things go from bad to worse. I agree with Chips that it's been destined to vote left of NV for a while.
Republican numbers with white voters are more reasonable in the rust belt states and the minority and urban populations in several of these states are shrinking as well or at the very lest such numbers are stable. These states are older, less college educated, depopulation tends to leave a much more Republican electorate behind (youth flight/brain drain - a big factor in Iowa and the Dakotas for instance), and Republicans are far closer to appealing to enough voters to win here than to overcome the structural problems elsewhere.
Speaking of older, less college-educated voters...what about Oregon? What has to happen to make it competitive? Is PDX's growth offsetting the decline of outstate?
That said, if the education divide continues to worsen, this path will be blocked. So while I expect the generational and racial divides to remain, I do expect at some point the GOP will need, at least regionally speaking in the Midwest, to address the loss of college educated whites. Money follows power and power follows the path of least resistance and it is easier relatively speaking to get back "just enough college educated white voters to win", than to do the heavy lifting required elsewhere.
I disagree in part, but I think medium-term, as a four year college degree is devalued, those voters will trend right.
I do see even as things stand now, the Midwest trending Republican (by default obviously), though absent some effort to address some of the problems, it is going to stagnate now or in the near future leaving the GOP locked out of power until it does. A good example of this is the declining GOP strength in Kent, MI; WOW in WI and the Pittsburgh area of PA. These "countervailing trends" will need to be addressed, otherwise the continued shift of WWC and/or NCWs will not be enough for Republicans to win these states (possibly with the exception of MI once Detroit empties out enough).
WOW and Pittsburgh are taken. I am more optimistic on MI, however, though. I also believe that while Biden likely would've won this year regardless, if the GOP didn't triage MI in June it votes to the right of PA (and close to WI).
