What would the primary campaign season have been like if South Carolina went first?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:58:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  What would the primary campaign season have been like if South Carolina went first?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What would the primary campaign season have been like if South Carolina went first?  (Read 325 times)
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,388
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 09, 2021, 05:06:07 PM »

If South Carolina went first instead of Iowa, would this have changed the campaigns we saw throughout 2019?
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2021, 05:09:04 PM »

I would say that it would cause all of the other campaigns to laser-focus on the black vote, but I doubt it even would have mattered. Biden would have truly been the inevitable nominee he always was going to be. That fact was just delayed due to South Carolina going fourth.
Logged
lord_moxley
Rookie
**
Posts: 108


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2021, 11:10:50 AM »

I would say that it would cause all of the other campaigns to laser-focus on the black vote, but I doubt it even would have mattered. Biden would have truly been the inevitable nominee he always was going to be. That fact was just delayed due to South Carolina going fourth.
Butterfly effect I'd say SC going first would potentially help Sanders due to the fact that Biden would do better in IA, NH and NV Sanders could outright win Iowa while winning New Hampshire by a bigger margin since some of Pete's votes in this scenario would likely go to Biden although Sanders probably only narrowly wins Nevada. Super Tuesday possibly instead of it being the Biden comeback could be the story of if Sanders can keep his momentum going after winning 3 states in a row leading into Super Tuesday but who knows Biden after winning the first state may just sweep 49/50 in the primary.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2021, 06:16:15 PM »

I would say that it would cause all of the other campaigns to laser-focus on the black vote, but I doubt it even would have mattered. Biden would have truly been the inevitable nominee he always was going to be. That fact was just delayed due to South Carolina going fourth.
Butterfly effect I'd say SC going first would potentially help Sanders due to the fact that Biden would do better in IA, NH and NV Sanders could outright win Iowa while winning New Hampshire by a bigger margin since some of Pete's votes in this scenario would likely go to Biden although Sanders probably only narrowly wins Nevada. Super Tuesday possibly instead of it being the Biden comeback could be the story of if Sanders can keep his momentum going after winning 3 states in a row leading into Super Tuesday but who knows Biden after winning the first state may just sweep 49/50 in the primary.

See, I think this would be the case. Even before Biden's three early state losing streak, I think a lot of Democrats did want reassurance that he could win, and beating a more crowded field significantly in South Carolina may still have delivered on that. Sanders would likely still stay in until Super Tuesday at least though regardless of what happened, I do agree with that.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 12 queries.